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WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

novice Wrote:We have too many leads. smile

jive an embarrassment of riches! I am not complaining about that, some of them have to pan out smile

Rowain Wrote:True and a lot of new players where we have no read at all..

I don't think you need to play half a dozen games with someone to get a read on them. I think i have a decent baseline on Qgqqq (from ww15 - and granted, I had several pm conversations about his role that help me gauge his personality) and Merovich (just from him lurking previous ww games).

Azza and Arromir, OTOH, I have nothing. But thats mostly because they've only made 7 posts so far between the two of them. Hopefully that will change quickly.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
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novice Wrote:My post 40 minutes after Zakalwe's was written on a cellphone while doing other stuff and was in fact a crosspost, as I've already said once before. I don't really care if you believe me, but if you want som "evidence", during those 40 minutes Zak and Gaspar had a nice little discussion on policy lynching me which I didn't comment on at all in my post because I had in fact not read it.
Were I paranoid I would say your post happened exactly because of the little zak-Gaspar discussion to avoid getting policy-lynched wink.
Not to mentioned that you played already a game as wolf where you happily helped lynching 2 of your packmates to gain deep cover (and a well-deserved win).

Alas I don't get any wolf-vibes from you but also since WW14 I don't think you can get any towncred for killing wolves.
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Random thoughts...

Catwalk is highly suspicious. Can't settle on a target, tried to save thestick at the last minute, tried to avert suspicion by theorising (is that even a word?) that the wolves would've orchestrated the killing of thestick to save themselves.

Uberfish is the other one who is particularly suspicious. Jumped on the bandwagon late, smells like an attempt to save his fellow wolf.

Still don't particularly trust waterbat either, but he's not acting anywhere near as dodgy as uberfish or Catwalk.
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In my defence, I simply had limited time to read/post, had a gut feeling that thestick was a mislynch, therefore distrusted the stick voters and played accordingly. BTW, the reason I called novice a worthless heap of scum was simply because I was annoyed at his post that falsely claimed I had been voteparked on him when I had in fact moved to Catwalk.

Regarding the Mattimeo flash wagon, I read it as primarily a village move, triggered by Mattimeo's dubious justification for voting Tasunke. There might be opportunistic scum partners on there since it was easy to join the wagon with the reason "I agree Matt's analysis was suspicious", and I think the most likely move for these after Matt's claim is to flip to the thestick wagon. Either because 1a) Matt is town and scum would go "oh damn, he's confirmed town now so we can't lynch him" or 1b) Matt is scum and the mafia had to make a choice as to whom to give up. further, 2) any scum on Matt's wagon would be worried about being targetted after Stick flipped scum, and so bussing Thestick would be a way to try and recoup town cred if they didn't think an alternate wagon was viable at that stage.

That doesn't clear Sareln, but in my opinion Sareln is a cautious and unemotional player and trying to save a scum partner with a risky last minute vote when he had an excuse to lurk out the end-of-day would be out of character for him. I don't think we can read anything into thestick not moving his own vote to Bigger at the end of day. He was online to make a late claim, and he might have decided to just lurk around in case he had the chance to save himself at the end of day.

Serdoa reads pretty natural in the way he handled the Matt/stick situation, I think if he was scum trying to start an alternate bandwagon he wouldn't also encourage thestick's wagon at the same time - so I'd be more inclined to suspect Pind and TT from the group of Matt voters, and slightly more so on TT who took an uncharacteristically passive following role throughout pp25-29 on the wagon movements. Don't like Pind's subsequent hop to a 1 man vote on Mero either.
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Azza, do you think I would have stuck my neck out for thestick like I did if I knew he was guilty? My argument wasn't based around others being really good targets (Mattimeo a little bit), it was based around not seeing any sensible way for the wolves to let thestick sink so easily. As a wolf, it would have been infinitely smarter to either let him keep sinking or to press another candidate rather than base my case around how likely thestick was to show up townie. If you're arguing I'd make a stupid wolf, I guess I don't have a good counter argument smile
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Azza Wrote:Catwalk is highly suspicious. Can't settle on a target, tried to save thestick at the last minute, tried to avert suspicion by theorising (is that even a word?) that the wolves would've orchestrated the killing of thestick to save themselves.
.

yes, but its spelled with a z. theorizing.

I like how I post that you were largely absent from day 1 and you show up within half an hour. Anyway, stick around a little more for day 2 smile.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
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I actually did a full reread. I have to agree with others that there's no shortage of suspects. smile

pindicator Wrote:why didn't thestick vote for bigger? huh
I think this is a valid question. My gut tells me the wolves gave up on saving thestick after the Mattimeo wagon foundered. That's not to say that none of the wolves joined the late push for Bigger, but I think some of them were diving for cover well before that.

I agree with Novice that we should look for people trying to divert the lynch at a much earlier stage (and I have been doing that).

Gaspar Wrote:Believe me, I'm well aware that a vote that late is scummy but I saw the Bigger bus and hadn't seen a vote count so I wanted to try. Was 5:59 when I started my post but I type like a 10 thumbed monkey on my phone so went thru late.

There's no way I'd make that vote to try and get village cred, I got filleted for doing that once before in a game.
"I would never do that as a wolf" doesn't cut it, Gaspar. When it comes to you, especially, I will judge you by your actions, and not your words. The main reason I defended you yesterday was because I wanted to keep thestick's lynch on track. But looking at your play on day 1, you did an admirable job of supporting Novice and me, thus indirectly supporting thestick's lynch, while never actually stating outright that you suspected him. On the occasions where you could have interjected some more concrete opinions, you let the opportunity pass in favor of making generic low-content posts. (See post 104, in particular.)

When you finally did comment concretely on thestick, in post 184, your comments can really be read any which way:

Gaspar Wrote:As far as thestick situation, I have some thoughts but I'd really like to see him defend himself before I share anything - a bit concerned that he's fallen off the face of the earth. Way too many day 1 lurkers btw - hopefully its just because of the weekend and we're not headed towards Sarelnpalooza here.

You "had some thoughts". Good to know.

(I have many other suspects, too. But I will break it up a bit, and read the cross-posts.)
If you know what I mean.
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Correct link to post 104: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post292692
If you know what I mean.
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I was a little puzzled that Gaspar kept referring to the bandwagon on Bigger as a bus. It may well nothing, but doesn't bus mean wolves sacrificing a wolf? More specifically, throwing someone (an ally or partner) under a bus.
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While I'm at it, I guess I should poke the other favorite suspect of mine, too.

Twinkletoes lurked outrageously throughout the day. Fence sitting is in character for him, but the timing of when he finally did decide to vote (for Mattimeo) is telling. After Mattimeo claimed, TT moved on to thestick; like Uberfish says, the natural move for scum, who would realize that the shit is about to hit the fan and they'd better duck.

Earlier in the day, TT also tried to deflect the thestick wagon onto Bigger.

Generally, he is way too quiet. Yet he seems to be on top of all facts when he does post. My read: lurking scum.

I'll just go ahead and quote all of his posts here, since it's not much of a wall.

Twinkletoes89 Wrote:Checking in (late I know)

At the moment it seems like a typical first day - lots of noise and hard to see anything incriminating because we have no knowledge. Thus my lynch vote as always will remain unused until I see more.

In terms of the mayor vote, I'm going to go for Lewwyn as if things are close and the mayor is influential I want the guy I think is most likely to smell out the werewolves and I know no better hunter than Lewwyn.

Twinkletoes89 Wrote:Bigger why are you already saying that you are 'following zak' onto thestick?

Already trying to pass the buck for things or just can't make your own decisions?

Twinkletoes89 Wrote:From what I've read I think I'm going to put my vote on Mattimeo.

His analysis of the Tasunke roleclaim and innocence is the only thing that has even stuck in my mind so far as being vaguely 'off' and so I am going with him.

I didn't like Jkaen piggybacking on it too though.

Twinkletoes89 Wrote:I'm inclined to believe Matt's roleclaim so unvote

Twinkletoes89 Wrote:I think that thestick's role sounds 'too traditional' for my liking and I think its a last gasp move to save himself, as it worked for Mattimeo.

thestick
If you know what I mean.
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