WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Tasunke]

Honestly? I think my case holds up just fine so long as Sareln and Novice are wolves ... because Novice's 'cat herding' ability can explain Catwalk and Waterbats behavior, even though Catwalk is looking VERY SCUMMY right now.

I don't think it'd be impossible for there to be 7 wolves, but yes, I think my case holds even at just 6 wolves. Perhaps, Jkaen, you are just looking for clarification, as opposed to trying to actively discredit Sareln or Novice's scumminess. In that case I will attempt to give it.

Meanwhile, the Ichabod and Selrahc cases, while *better* than the Pindicator case, does not AT ALL mean that they *have* to be wolves (at least to be better than the Pin lynch).

Still, right now I think Sareln was trying to be useful at the end so that when he falls wolf, he might be able to stir some suspicion, give cover, whatever. Does this mean Pin could still be wolf even if Sareln turns ou to be wolf? Certainly ... but I find it incredibly ODD that Sareln, Novice, and Catwalk all suddenly jump onto Pin right after Sareln "Decides" to be helpful.

As Serdoa said, the timing is a bit uncanny.

[Tasunke]

Hmm, well if Catwalk is the echo, could just be a cop out to latch onto the lurker wolf. Still, both Novice and Sareln suddenly agreeing on Pin ...

Not sure I'd trust Sareln's redirect at face value, considering the suspicion he is under.

[Lewwyn]

Possibly, but catwalk has all but stated he will echo Novice's votes at the moment, so its not all that astounding

New meaning to cat-herder.

[Jkaen]

I have no problem with suspicions on all of those people (although Novice is reading strong village to me, just not 100%), I just obviously misinterpreted that you thought all 5 remaining wolves were working together.

As i understand it now, you are saying that Novice is herding away from Sareln, then the other 3 you list are seperate unrelated people you find suspicious. this makes more sense to me (even if I am not sure I agree)

[Lewwyn]

Tansuke,

For your theory to work, does that mean you have already identified all wolves as:

thestick, Sareln, Selrahc, Ichabod, Novice, Catwalk.

Which gives us 6, which is a fair guess for the total numebr of wolves in the game. I don't see much room in your theory for any of these to be wrong without your case falling apart

You know I think this type of connect the dots wolf hunting ultimately fails even if I agree with a couple of those suspects. Shall we recycle the Mardoc's fears picture to illustrate?

[Lewwyn]

Oh I see. x-posting, there isn't actually a "they all have to be wolves theory" here.

[uberfish]

I would have never thought that, but I would trust what Tasunke posted more then what others have posted. And that waterbat, catwalk and novice all happen to be around right at the right time to start a nice little bandwagon within a few minutes surely is... convenient, isn't it?

I don't think those guys moving is inherently suspicious, there are 24 players still in the game so it's not surprising that several people would be online at the same time to move. Sareln has been putting up a decent defence although I don't agree with all his conclusions (more on this in a bit) and I'm not sure why people are completely ignoring TT.

[waterbat]

Yes, I'd like to see the mardoc fears pic.

Catwalk and my votes weren't doing much, on mero and über respectively. I'm glad to see some consolidation.

[novice]

novice, why Sareln for mayor?

just trying to signal that he's village

novice

[Bigger]

Rereading the actual lynch vote statements of Pindicator and Merovech, I realize now that I got the reasoning confused. Merovech moved to "pressure" Bigger from theStick with 10 minutes left on the clock. Pindicator jumped on Merovech stating "it was probably too late".
.

This is interesting. There were 5 people that made suspicious last minute switches to me (if you include Pindicator, whose vote was not to me but was meaningless, so COULD have resulted in my lynch). you mention two but not the most suspicious ones.
In fact I would say the voting pattern makes them suspicious in this order -
1. uberfish 2. sareln 3. merovich 4. catwalk 5. Pindicator.

Pindicator's neutral vote when he could have just piled on me makes him less suspicious. Pindicator had also previously voted for me so it still would have been near the end of the list even if he had hopped back on me. I put catwalk's near the end also because he had previously voted for me as well, unlike the first 3 that came out of nowhere.

Because I don't know what to make of it. pindicator has used implausibly late switches the last two games for different reasons. There's something here, I don't know if it's scummy though. He was village both times before.

Yes, this is Pindicator's MO, and while I was frustrated he wouldn't just vote for thestick, especially fearing a last minute wolf mislynch of me, its really not suspicious enough to warrant a lynch today. I think a day 2 lynch of Pindicator would be absolutely horrible, there are at least 6 better candidates (sareln, uberfish, ichabod, catwalk, selrahc, merovich - just thinking off hand) - the first 4 are screaming scum, at least.

le sigh ... wolf Catwalk and wolf Novice working to clear their buddy Sareln .... or something like that.

I really don't think Pindicator should be the focus right here. I mean, while he probably isn't the most "villagerish" person right now, I think Sareln, Selrahc, and Ichabod are all BETTER lynch candidates than Pin.

You know, this is not as "tinfoil hat" as it appears at first glance. In any case, I completely agree with the second paragraph.

I'm not really happy with novice's play today at all. This whole post restriction is too coincidental anyway and doesn't really fit in with a mafia themed game, imo. It may very well be that village novice is faking it to avoid being night killed, but I still don't like it...

Lewwyn


as for lynch, I would actually be quite fine with Ichabod or uberfish lynching today, and I am very happy that we forced Sareln to start contributing -
but as long as the alternate candidate is a like Pindicator I'm going to have to stay on Sareln