WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[uberfish]

[*]I don't get suspicion on Azza. He's one of my strongest village reads - sounds exactly how a new player who is trying would sound, IMO.

He's not actually a new player, he said at some point that he's just not played a mafia game in a while.

[Catwalk]

But why would you follow Novice in the first place if you already had a player which you suspected? That's the problem. You said you follow him becuase you didn't have you own leads, but as it turns out, you had a lead.

I had a lead on Azza, and I tried to pursue it. What little response there was to it was along the lines of "he reads villager to me", novice felt so as well. I don't think my read was bad, there just wasn't any interest. Would you have wanted me to keep pursuing the matter? If I recall correctly there wasn't all that much time left, I didn't want to split the vote further if there was no chance of Azza hanging. I still don't understand why Azza has gone under the radar like that, and I will revisit him if anything interesting comes up.

[Gaspar]

He's not actually a new player, he said at some point that he's just not played a mafia game in a while.

Skilled or not, I generally think new to our games takes an adjustment period, since we all rely heavily on how others have behaved in previous games. But I suppose that knocks him down half-a-notch on the village read list.

[Ichabod]

Ok. Firstly I don't think the fact that he's defending against a thestick post means anything at all - thestick's play was so... half-hearted I think he's just as likely to have attacked a wolf as a villager. Not to mention one of the traits most common to newbie wolves is they have a hard time going after villagers because they know they are innocent. So I don't believe there is anything at all in that interaction.

I made a big mistake. Meiz wasn't defending against thestick in that post. The post from thestick quoted by Meiz was actually an attack of some sorts that thestick made on Jkaen (Meiz had previously voted for Jkaen, while Jkaen voted for Meiz). So, take that back, thestick never attacked Meiz (which is what I said previously).

[uberfish]

I'm just not sure why anyone has a town read on azza because it's very easy to play that sort of one-liner style as scum. And he's contributed nothing original on d2

[uberfish]

couple unrelated points

1) Waterbat does your script track voting changes? not particularly looking forward to digging through wagon movements on d2 manually...

2) I really hope there's more than 1 source of night kills in this game or it's going to take far too long with way too many posts

[Azza]

I distinguish between inactive players and lurking players. It looks to me like Arromir and Azza are deliberately not contributing, not merely too busy. And to me, that's a lot more suspicious.

I think it matches a new wolf quite well. Aggravate an easy target, generating noise and seeming active.

If nothing changes from my point of view, there's not much point in posting. Making posts solely for the sake of looking active is of no benefit to anyone.

He's not actually a new player, he said at some point that he's just not played a mafia game in a while.

Skilled or not, I generally think new to our games takes an adjustment period, since we all rely heavily on how others have behaved in previous games. But I suppose that knocks him down half-a-notch on the village read list.

Haven't played an online mafia game in probably 4-5 years before this, and never played one with this level of activity in the thread or this amount of thought and analysis put into the votes.

I'm just not sure why anyone has a town read on azza because it's very easy to play that sort of one-liner style as scum. And he's contributed nothing original on d2

I'm just your average villager, whether you believe me or not. So they'd be right to conclude I'm town. But on your second point, what do you want me to do? Concoct some dodgy reasoning to frame suspicion on someone I have no particular thoughts about? Nothing major jumped out at me on d2, certainly nothing worth sharing.

[pindicator]

couple unrelated points

1) Waterbat does your script track voting changes? not particularly looking forward to digging through wagon movements on d2 manually...

Guess what I'm doing...

[novice]

Indeed. Since I'm quoting him, here's my read on Gaspar so far: I agree with the observations he makes, especially in hindsight. He doesn't push much though. For me this is consistent with a villager Gaspar that is actually on top of his game but doesn't have quite enough time.

Could you exemplify the bolded part a bit to me.

*Looks up Gaspar*
http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww16/Gaspar.html

OK, maybe my statement was a bit too sweeping. Starting on day 2, there are some posts I disagree with as well. At the beginning of day 2, Gaspar made these posts which didn't sit too well with me:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]post 515:
Either we don't have a baner or the baner is an idiot. Looks like Zakalwe & novice really scared the scum - kill Zakalwe and very anti-town post restriction on novice. Suggest we look very hard at their suspects.[/COLOR]
I agree that we scared the scum, but I don't think it says anything about our stated suspects. I just think they were scared of the credibility we had accrued.

He repeats his stance in [COLOR="DarkOrange"]post 534:
I feel fairly secure that zakalwe and novice's reads are what got them killed and post-restricted respectively, and I think at this moment in time I like this read best. Ichabod.[/COLOR]

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]post 661
I think we're just eating lynchbait.Qgqqqqq is pretty clearly lynch bait to me, he seems like he's trying just has a few restrictions in terms of RL and is still getting his feet wet in the game.[/COLOR]
I disagreed with this pretty strongly at the time, Qqqq did show up and defend pretty well, but IIRC that was after this assessment by Gaspar.

After this, I think maybe on the next RL day, he made a series of posts that had me nodding along, though:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]909: "Holy mother of something, that was a busy night. Yeesh. I didn't quote so I'm going from memory - stuff that stuck out for me overnight:
Sareln definitely comes off innocent there - and man, be nice if we could ever get that level of participation from him without the noose halfway fitted.
I do think a healthy dollop of skepticism is always required when novice is involved, though I've agreed with almost everything he's "said" today. There really are no confirmed town yet, one of these days we'll collectively learn this lesson and avoid getting punked by scum over and over.
Just since its come up a few times, I have a strong town read on Azza.

On to the main suspects:

Pindicator has no traction but I'll mention him since he was a big topic last night. He seems relatively disengaged. I agree that the sequence of actions was very scummy though he's pulled that gambit before. Though I think he might have been scum that time. Slight scum lean, I guess.
Sareln, I discussed above. I think he's town.
Selrahc is totally checked out, due to real life reasons I know its probably not easy for him to do anything but he's shown before he knows how to play lurker scum well. I also think he tilts at windmills more than anyone else and as such, wouldn't be missed that much if we end up wrong.
Twinkletoes89 sounds like himself. I do think the post uber highlighted seemed scummy but its hard to say really whether he's just caught up in paranoia or is scum. I lean the paranoia and hence town atm.
Ichabod I've banged heads with ad nauseum. I don't have a smoking gun, its just completely on tone. He sounds like wolf Ichabod. Lewwyn presented a more eloquent argument than I did. My only reticence is that anytime Lewwyn, novice and I agree on day 2, the world is probably about to end.
uberfish - just seems like the typical day 1/2/3 villager uberfish mislynch. He's aggressive which rubs people the wrong way and he's wrong alot, which also rubs people the wrong way. I think if we let him live though he might bag a mafia before all is said and done.

Anyway, money where my mouth is:

Ichabod"[/COLOR]
Agreed with almost everything here.

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]936: "I'm short time at the moment, but Ichabod's defense did not sway me. He gets frustated obviously but it looks like he just threw a give-up vote on me.

I will votenovicemayor because I don't ever trust my read on Lewwyn. Eventually, I can usually suss out novice. Not that it matters all that much."[/COLOR]
Agreed

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]976: "I don't get the Sareln thing - just seems everyone trying to be too clever. He did a ton of scumhunting last night, that struck me as very villagery. I don't think we should get so caught up in voting trends when we only know 2 players alignments for sure - there's a lot we don't know yet. It'll be more useful in 2-3 days after we have some more confirms.

Ichabod vote is pure tone for me, but that's how I vote, usually. There are other lunches I could get behind - Catwalk, Selrahc for two - but I don't get the Sareln thing. I haven't played with Pindicator enough to have a solid baseline there but I do think he's prone to peculiar play."[/COLOR]
Agree with the first paragraph especially, and most of the second paragraph, except Catwalk, perhaps.

1046: "Still like Ichabod, be shocked if Sareln flips wolf. Basically a null read on Pindicator to this point. So I guess I'm sitting where I am."
Agree with the Sareln part at least.

1132: "Agree that its the wrong attitude to have, but its the natural attitude nonetheless."
Agreed.

[Bigger]

[*]NBD = No Big Deal. I was mainly referring to Bigger's blase approach to the mislynch, though IIRC Tasunke a bit as well.
.

to be clear, I never said it wasn't a big deal, nor was I blase about his lynch. I simply said that I think it was the correct lynch given the suspects available to lynch at the time. Sucks that he turned out innocenct, but he was my #2 and I would have voted for him over Ichabod or Pindicator if I had been online at lynch time.