WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Rowain]

Rowain, what did you mean by Section A here?

How about you read my posts?

[Twinkletoes89]

How about you read my posts?

Don't be a dick about it Rowain, you aren't really helping yourself

[pindicator]

How about you read my posts?

How about you pretend you're a helpful villager? I'm trying to but you aren't helping.

Fine, I'll go dig through your damn posts. Again. Now answer the other half of my post, pretty please with sprinkles on top.

[Rowain]

Cold be but I'm absolutly tired of repeating myself. he needs only to move abit back (from the post he quoted) and sees a post of me where he gets his explanation.

[Rowain]

I learned that neither of them was more scummy than you.

[Ichabod]

Went through the posts Injera made in the game. Lots of posts, very little content.

His day 1 play can be summarized as follows:

a) Lots of defense on thestick, almost to the point of possibly being called too obvious. But what is very important to point out is that Injera's defense of thestick started early, in post 120. Novice and Zakalwe had already made their votes, so as Bigger and Waterbat. Thestick had 4 votes.

It was an early defense, which seems more wolfish. His defense argument could have been made against Zakalwe, the first post attacking thestick, but he only made it when Novice and a beggining of a bandwagon were already there.

He even made a preemptive defense of this "accusation" on night 1:

A noisy night. I'm happy we caught a wolf, but obviously chastened.

I'm understandably going to get some heat for my defense of thestick, so let me explain my mindset. I've spent the last three games as a wolf watching the village shoot themselves in the foot day 1. I mentioned this in the lurker thread at the end of last game and Rowain commented that it was a lot easier with a cheat sheet. Having saved thestick from a mislynch last game was prominent in my mind. Funny that I've defended him cross alignment two games in a row now...

Ultimately, I was on a mission to make sure we didn't make a stupid mislynch of an easy target on Day 1, and I thought the argument against thestick was pretty weak. I still think it was, up until his reaction at the very end of the day. As I said in my Gaspar argument little tells matter on Day 1, but I didn't even see the case against thestick until Serdoa broke it down for me. Fortunately this game I don't have a cheat sheet.

So, yeah, time to reevaluate everything. One thing I think we should keep in mind is that it's possible that thestick was bussed. However, I don't think we should care about this at all for at least a few days. If we follow our thestick leads and they don't pan out it's important to have it there in the back of our minds; the villagers that would be willing to radically pivot are likely gone by that point.

b) His battle with Gaspar. Interesting to notice that, while the battle began as Gaspar attacking Injera due to his defense of Catwalk opening post, when the day started passing, Injera started accusing Gaspar, not only defending, as can be seen in post 185.

But all the attention he gave to gaspar disappeared as soon as day 2 started and Gaspar moved to other targets. He said that reevaluation was needed, so maybe that was it.

c) The crux of what make Injera day 1 suspicious is post 150:

His case in this post, as can be seen by his vote, was against Injera. He suspected Injera due to the Catwalk defense. So why add that little snippet about Catwalk finding time to play? The only explanation I can see for this is an attempt to herd the cats, to add strenght to his argument based on a thing that doesn't have to do with the argument itself, it's just indiciary.

Yes, his case against me seems to crucially involve both Catwalk and I being wolves, otherwise his evidence wouldn't make sense, but he can't bring himself to say that. Just like the line I posted earlier about Catwalk- in context it was clearly meant as some sort of justification to his vote, but later he claims it was only meant to be something to keep in mind for the future.

Why this is suspicious? Because Injera was the only player to find that post I made about Gaspar a good one. This post I made was the one that made mostly everyone vote against me. But it was not the case of Injera, he voted for me on a pretty flimsy reasoning:

I'm not caught up, and it's going to take a while (16 pages). My reason for voting Ichabod is that we do have some similar behaviors in hunting scum. Particularly, we both focus on "little" tells in absence of larger ones when we don't have anything to work on, like I did early in the day with Gaspar. Crucially, though, he hasn't seemed to have graduated from the little tells to the big tells, when there's a whole lot of what I would consider "big" ideas going around.

Time to read up.

He never really explained what the "big ideas" were. Can you see why this is wrong? His vote on me is due to the fact that I didn't catch all the good lynches that could have been made. The lynches that he, apparently, caught. So, why wouldn't he vote for those people, why vote for me? It doesn't make any sense.

This seems like a made up justification, due to the fact that just following the vote on me would be bad, since he actually liked my "totally scum post".

The only problem here is his motivation? My first thought was that this would imply that Pindicator is also a wolf, but that's not a good guess. I think he just needed to change targets from Sareln, since Sareln was being defended by some key players to have been defending well, and if he participated on 2 mislynches, he'd look bad.

d) He voted Bigger. Alone, this is not a lot, but it's also not a good thing to have made.

---

Day 2, when he was not being attacked like in day 1 (attacks made by Gaspar), was way more contentless. It has a lot of small posts and questions. He voted for Sareln and after some people defended Sareln (like Gaspar), he changed his vote to me, with flimsy justification. Interesting to notice that he never said anything about me before that vote (other than something about Qgqqqq saying that there was enough attackers on me being strange).

Anyway, my conclusion is that there's nothing in Injera play pointing to villager. I haven't seen one useful contribution, with my analysis in hindsight. I agreed with his early suspicions on gaspar, but he let go of them once Gaspar let go of him.

So, while there's nothing too much damning pointing towards wolf, there's nothing good either. Could be a cautious wolf play and I'd expect that from Injera. Right now, Injera seems to be a good target for me, even better than Rowain. Arromir is still a good vote, though.

[uberfish]

I think I need to reread Injera. And yes, Arromir can die if he continues lurking too.

[novice]

Okay, more Meiz translation (mainly for my own benefit).

@catwalk #1357

1) Fork

2)
#1 [SIZE="3"]Merovech[/SIZE]

#133 =
#281 -> #328 = :|
#328 + #377 =

#2 Azza

CatwalkUberfishCatwalkUberfish... =

#3 [SIZE="1"]Arromir[/SIZE]

#266 =
#521 =

---

[SIZE="5"]Injera + Waterbat[/SIZE] =

Selrahc = ?
@Rowain #1371 = Fork

Translation of the above:

I would still like to hear your opinion on my earlier post:
1: It looks like you're required to put all names in red. Does that mean you're actually switching votes all the time?

Yes.

2: How do you feel about uberfish's theory on Azza, Arromir and Merovech? Use lobster if yes/no doesn't suffice, or state who of them you find suspicious (if any).

1. Merovech:
Villagery post:

Pindicator, thank you for explaining. I've thought a bit more, and I think thestick's opening post was a little "leady."

Neutral posts:

I am a 2-Shot Watcher. I can learn the names of whoever targets a player I choose.

unvote

Going back to gather thoughts.

followed by

Hmmmm. I am starting to think thestick is innocent. I would not mind pressuring Bigger today.

Scummy posts:

Hmmmm. I am starting to think thestick is innocent. I would not mind pressuring Bigger today.

+

Official Final Lynch Vote Count

thestick - 9 - zakalwe, novice, Bigger, tasunke, Mattimeo, Arromir, Serdoa, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Bigger - 8 - Rowain, Lewwyn, Injera, Jkaen, Sareln, Merovech, uberfish, Catwalk

2. Azza
Scummy due to only voting Catwalk and Uberfish.

3. Arromir
Villagery posts:

The reason I've avoided posting, and voting, up to this post is because: it's day one, it's my first game, and I do not really know the people involved.

There is a lot of speculation and noise going on, a large portion of which is likely caused by villagers jumping at shadows. Catching up with the tread though, the most suspicious individual for me is thestick and his relative apathy to his lynch count. All I have to go on is how I'd act in such a situation, and I'd certainly be a bit more proactive if a was a villager. So thestick it is, and hopefully it pays off.

On our mayoral candidates, I suppose [COLOR="Cyan"]zakalwe [/COLOR] is a lock at this point regardless, but might as well vote.

Guess it's a good thing I searched my name before logging.

I'm not sure what I can say in my defense of voting for thestick when I did other than my work doesn't really allow for any internet access. And as I've stated before, I did not want to get too involved in all of the speculation that was going on day one.

Anything more concrete than that will have to wait until I have a chance to read through the entirety of the thread.

---

Main suspects: Injera + Waterbat

Selrahc might be a wolf.

Agrees with this post by Rowain:

@Selrahc The fact that even when you find time and access to post you use it for useless triades how poor you are. The fact that you find the time and followed the thread enough) to make this post during the night but sadly nothing that helps town in anyway or form makes me vote for you.

I do read the above mentioned post as a wolf trying to fan the flames while some villagers bang heads.

[novice]

@Gaspar #1387 (Catwalk)

Fork Fork Fork!

Translation of the above:

Meiz agrees strongly with this paragraph by Gaspar:

• Catwalk, just for what its worth - Meiz's insights aren't suddenly more valuable than they were before just because he's post restricted. I get trying to help him out but some of the time spent on building the English to Martian dictionary for him probably could be better spent on other stuff. Meiz is a bright guy, he'll find a way to communicate with him.
  

[pindicator]

I learned that neither of them was more scummy than you.

Maybe you can share your thoughts with the rest of the village if you don't want to share them with me? I'll look away, I promise, so you don't have to feel like I'm going to set you up with them.

You get bad tunnel vision when you're pissed, you know that? Just like you did with me & jkaen in WW14.

I found out where you hid your a) and b) categories, so thank you for your help there. It actually helps quite a bit