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WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

Meiz Wrote:@Gaspar #3

#577

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@waterbat #1056

\/\/ |-| \' ... |? |_| 5 |-| ?

Meiz Wrote:@waterbat #1404. Lobster...

#1056 !

Translation:

In response to Gaspar's
Gaspar Wrote:I don't really suspect this info is there on day one, despite knowing the alignments of both candidates. As has been stated, the better place to look on day one voting info is earlier in the day. At the end of the day, wolves would have been in self-preservation mode having outted a baner and watched a wolf go spectacularly up-in-flames, I think that was every man for himself.

Meiz refers to this post

Meiz Wrote:You are probably right on that. My priorities were not for this game for the weekend.

thestick actually had quite good power in his use, especially being unlimited shots. That's basically an alternative version of Devil (wolf-role-seer), perfect for hunting villager PR's. So IMO it makes no sense that there would be no real effort on trying to save him. To me it looks like thesticks anti-defense was trying to make villagers doubt the votes, since everyone thinks wolf has the biggest motivation to fight back. Could also explain the lack of vote against Bigger. Fortunately didn't work that well for him :D. I agree that there's lot to read from the beginning of the day where thestick started to gain more heat.

#1 suspect: Waterbat, who made early vote on thestick but backed away right after it gained traction.
Generally not getting villager vibes from his posts.

#2 Qgqqq. Probably influenced by novices suspicion on him...

Seems like I'm the only one who found Jkaen's reaction to Tasunke suspicious... But agreed, his misundertanding of the accusation gives a slight villager read. Still, joined the Bigger wagon.

Villagers: novice, Bigger, Serdoa

Thinking that Injera's over-the-top defense of thestick is too strongly visible. Could be an attempt of reverse psychology, but doubt it.

As the chain of events is getting way too long, I put it to spoilers. It's until page #23.

Zak made the first vote on thestick. No problems for the wolves yet. (Well villager Zak is always trouble for the wolves, but just one vote at this point).

Serdoa made a slight defense, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=69
But talked of Molach, even when it was meant to be thestick. I wonder if wolf would have had the idea to fake something like this. Small thing, but IMO leans a bit village. Generally getting village vibes from him.

novice made similar accusation against thestick, did not vote yet. Waterbat follows with a vote, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=80
So basically making the third vote, since novice had given clear signs of suspecting thestick.

Catwalk unvotes waterbat, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=82
What was the point of his vote against waterbat? Why the need for unvoting, instead of leaving it in place until more clear suspects arise?

Now novice votes thestick, making it:
tasunke - 3 - Sareln, Merovech, Meiz
thestick - 3 - Zakalwe, Waterbat, novice
Gaspar - 2 - Bigger, Injera
Sareln - 2 - tasunke, Molach
Catwalk - 2 - uberfish, Qgqqq
Pindicator - 1 - Serdoa
Molach - 1 - Gaspar
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Lewwyn
Bigger - 1 - Pindicator
Jkaen - 1 - Rowain
Merovech - 1 - Jkaen

A bit of a "oh shit" situation for the wolves, but plenty of time to change things around due to numerous alternative candidates.

Pindicator makes slight defense of thestick, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=98
"Isn't 20 questions how he played it last game as a villager? i was pretty convinced he was scum last game, and wrong, which makes me want to see more from thestick before deciding towards him"

----

Later Bigger votes thestick. I'd say this is the true "oh shit" moment for the wolves and the motivation to deflect attention would be at the highest. Votes:
thestick - 4 - zakalwe, Waterbat, novice, Bigger
Catwalk - 2 - uberfish, Qgqqqqq
Jkaen - 2 - Rowain, Meiz
Pindicator - 2 - Serdoa, Merovech
Bigger - 2 - Pindicator, Catwalk
Sareln - 2 - tasunke, Molach
Gaspar - 1 - Injera
Injera - 1 - Gaspar
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Lewwyn
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
tasunke - 1 - Sareln
Merovech - 1 - Jkaen

This is mostly listing the events afterwards, that seem like deflecting attention elsewhere.

Rowain accuses thestick voters (novice & bigger) http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=112

TwinkleToes attacks Bigger, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=113

Sareln votes Qgqqq, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=118

Jkaen revenge-votes me, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=124
Does not really make a case for others to follow though...

Merovech votes thestick, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=133
Comes off looking like a villager IMO.

Waterbat changes away from thestick to Injera, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=140
IMO wolfish move, scared of the votes thestick gathered? His reason for switching was because Injera preferred novice as mayor over Zak...

Ichabod makes a case against Gaspar. Likes thestick case, but doesn't want to vote yet, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=144

Injera and Gaspar continue the battle. (not going to bother with links, it was on for the whole day)

Rowain votes Bigger, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=158

Tasunke continues to suspect Sareln, while also adding Lewwyn to the mix, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=161

uberfish continues against catwalk, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=164

Qgqqq votes Tasunke, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=165

Waterbat following suspicions on uberfish, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=171

Tasunke suspects Qgqq, Lewwyn and Sareln, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=173

Lewwyn puts thestick in even bigger lead, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=176
"The other big argument here is thestick and I'm on board to a point. My only issue is he's only got one post so we can't call this a definitive lynch."
Explained more later: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=186

Waterbat defending thestick, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=180

Catwalk votes Gaspar (away from Bigger), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=188

Lewwyn switches away from thestick to Catwalk, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=190

Injera votes novice, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=197

Serdoa votes thestick, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=199
Pro-villager move, making it:

thestick - 5 - zakalwe, novice, Bigger, Merovech, Serdoa
Bigger - 2 - Pindicator, Rowain
Injera - 2 - Gaspar, Waterbat
Sareln - 2 - tasunke, Molach
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Sareln
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
Meiz - 1 - Jkaen
tasunke - 1 - Qgqqqqq
Catwalk - 1 - uberfish
Gaspar - 1 - Catwalk
Jkaen - 1 - Meiz
Catwalk - 1 - Lewwyn
novice - 1 - Injera

Uberfish votes novice, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=202
(Still, wouldn't there have been easier targets to dogpile?)
Overreacts against novice later in quite odd manner. I'm guessing to strengthen his argument (showing he is certain of it). Generally seen as something that wolf would avoid, so might be done over the top on purpose.

Qgqq votes uberfish, says catwalk is still suspicious, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=212

Mattimeo makes controversial vote gainst Tasunke, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=217
I'd imagine wolf would have came up with better reasons, there was plenty of material at that point. I also can't imagine he'd expect the vote to gain much traction... But Jkaen follows, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=218

Serdoa calls out Mattimeo's reasoning and votes, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=219
Agreed on his view.

Rowain continues against Bigger, says Jkaen is his #2 suspect, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=222

Lewwyn changes away from Catwalk to Bigger and goes to sleep, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=227
Putting him in #2 place for the lynch.


I'll be attending to a training starting from today, ending on thursday. Will be overnight and with evening programs, so I'm going to be restricted to mobile access.

And then, Meiz asks Waterbat "Why Rush?" with regards to this post:

waterbat Wrote:asdlkjfhasdlkjfh!! back too late!

i had typed up this from an hour or so ago - but so much has happened since then... from a quick overview i was conviced by both sareln and pindicator frown and have no idea of the tally - I will just not vote as intended in bold below.



ok well, I *really* want to get my vote on a wolf today, but don't have the time before deadline to re-review.

I think we must have several good candidates up - the voting yesterday and earlier today was pretty quick moving. I don't think the mafia had time to plan out what went down and agree we might be giving them too much credit for their actions at the end.

At this point, I think Sareln, Mero, uber, pindicator are all fine places to start. I understand the case against Ichabod from a pure "reads-as-wolf" perspective, but don't understand why we would go there and avoid the events just prior to the deadline.

It does look like a vote on pindicator may have the most effect - just 1.3 hours until deadline.

Also it looks like the mayor vote actually has come to the point where votes matter instead of being a landslide

Llewyn

Waterbat responds to Meiz with

waterbat Wrote:I can read that , so I dont even have to refer back.

WHY RUSH?

yes ... agreed. That sounds terrible. I just felt like Tasunke was freaking out because he couldnt figure out which candidate he liked and it was only 4-3-3 with half the people (also where i discovered there were soooooo many still in the game). so i tried to calm him. No other reason. I realize that seems like a damning lack of urgency, but i meant it.

i actually then did a full vote count - because i didn't even know who the candidates Tasunke was referring to were. I only realized towards the end that Brick had done one at 10:00.

I did the count from my phone with an actual pencil and paper, believe it or not. Was in the loo suffering from food poisoning (I hope). If this was a wolf game instead of a mafia game, you might be tempted to imply that I got it from eating zakalwe or Serdoa or Bigger.

To which Meiz replies
WTF? I'm referring to your post 1054 (quoted above).
I have to run.
Reply

uberfish Wrote:I think I need to reread Injera.

Agreed. And Waterbat. Share the cliff notes with us. smile

Rowain is infuriating. He plays so damn scummy and defends horribly. And he has a history of doing that regardless of alignment... His "defense" now is similar to WW6(?) where Uberfish and Erebus were wolves and I mislynched Rowain at the end. Rowain helped, with a self-vote.
I have to run.
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Uhh just caught up again, finding selrahcs defence interesting, and certainly understand not having time to vote - unsure here.
Getting more suspicious of Rowain, but again unsure
Hey well take the plunge, rowain did you learn anything from your aggresive interviewing?
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.

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Waterbat notes

chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken chicken

just kidding, I'm too tired to do this tonight, should have time tomorrow
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Uberfish notes

[SPOILER][SPOILER]Uberfish
[/SPOILER][/SPOILER]

Haha tongue
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pindicator Wrote:Maybe you can share your thoughts with the rest of the village if you don't want to share them with me?

There is nothing more to share. That is my impression I got from their answers: That those were less scummy than you.
And in case you ask I do vote Selrahc because I got the impression that he is more scummy than you.

No smoking guns or else - just my impressions.
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btw my posting time is about to slip away completely with a freind staying.
Ill try to keep up and post, but you have been warned.
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.

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no time now guys - but i guess i should have referred back. not sure what meiz is REALLY wanting from me. It can wait until night for sure.

later.
--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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Well, I haven't found a smoking gun either. But I have found a couple coincidences that make me lean village on you, Rowain.

Anyway, i've been digging around in Night 2, working with a hypothesis that the wolves knew they would target Serdoa but the Bigger death caught them by surprise. So I think it's a rare moment that the wolves were surprised by the outcome of a night and while there's nothing damning to put one person away with, I do think it's worth tucking away for the future.

Anyway, Rowain comes into this from the other angle: I think this approach gives a village lean on his actions. First he attacks Serdoa, trying to tie the two of us as scum.

Rowain Wrote:I do want to point out that Serdoa worked quite hard to save pindicator he even tried to start a fight with me with some ridicoulous ideas.

Then he goes on to question Bigger.
Rowain Wrote:Maybe Gaspar interpreted this:

Bigger Wrote:I think its very plausible a village novice would fake a post restriction.

Please tell me a good reason why a villager (no matter if novice or not) would fake that restriction? Even more why you think it very plausible that he did so.

Rowain Wrote:That you Bigger and Tasunke ay so is no surprise as you fall clearly under section a. Selrahc on the other hand.

Now, Rowain doesn't attack Bigger like other people do, and his conclusions are that Bigger is likely villager. So while this isn't strong enough to entirely clear Rowain, I think this gives him a village lean.


So who does attack Bigger?

Novice
novice Wrote:I forget who said something similar, but it bothers me how all Bigger's posts come across scummy, which of course conflicts with the bandwagon evidence from day 1.

Were all the Bigger switches just random, and wolves had the worst day 1 ever / were all driving buses?

Exploring this is not my top priority, but at least now I can express my suspicions without framing them in bold and red.

Uberfish
uberfish Wrote:Bigger and azza basically didn't do anything d2 except to repeatedly parrot the line that Sareln and myself were obvscum based on d1 voting.
uberfish Wrote:I will add that the most likely scum bussing/distancing slots on Thestick are Arromir/Bigger due to their behaviour on day 2. Arromir acted guilty about it and Bigger decided to coast on the "scum tried to save thestick" theory.

Ichabod
Ichabod Wrote:I pointed out some scummy posts by Bigger, especially the ones where he kept saying that I was... forgot the exact expression he used, but something like obvious scum, not only me but 3/4 more players, but without givinmg any justification of any of this. Later he dismissed my defenses in a similar fashion.

And Catwalk
Catwalk Wrote:True, I forgot that it wouldn't have decided the lynch. But there was a lot of vote confusion and no tally, he couldn't know for sure that a Bigger vote wouldn't save him. Again, there might be a very plausible explanation for why he didn't switch.

Catwalk Wrote:I think Tasunke fully believed what his tinfoil hat was telling him, less sure of Bigger.

Catwalk Wrote:I don't think Rowain is saying novice wouldn't fake it, he's saying it's highly implausible. This stands in contrast to Bigger who says it's plausible he'd fake it, EVEN as a villager. I don't see this as tunnel vision from Rowain.

All of post
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1172

I don't think all 4 of them are wolves, no. But I'm willing to bet 1 of them is.

And if I missed someone, please link the post. I did this in fits and starts so I'm not confident I got everything from last night.

Novice was also talking about giving Selrahc some pressure so let's see how that goes. Q's vote just now also strikes me as suspicious, in that it is a very easy vote to make without thinking.
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
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god(s)damnit, every time someone defends themselves, makes me think they're more town, even though a) it's only their word for it b) I know that can't be the case for everyone :/

Didn't really see anything to actually change my mind, though, so sticking with Merovech. I'd like to put pressure on Selrahc, but yeah, not sure I'll be around to remove that pressure later, so I don't want to risk it.

back in ~30 hours or so.
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