WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Injera]

I bugged pindicator, Mattimeo, and Catwalk respectively. All "no results." So Mattimeo's claim is consistent with that, however, if he can use (or claim to use) the ability on himself, any combination of self-use or no action would have produced the same results as presumably he'd get shielded from my night action. So... yeah, nothing really there one way or another.

If you are a villager, you're just going to have to use your best judgment for out-guessing the wolves. Setting up any sort of test is likely to just get you eaten.

[Mattimeo]

Set up test whose likely outcome is getting eaten
Cloak self instead of following test plan
???
Profit

(likely follow-up: get lynched the following day because I didn't follow the test plan, and the wolves didn't target me)

[Injera]

Set up test whose likely outcome is getting eaten
Cloak self instead of following test plan
???
Profit

Well, if you are a villager and neither of us are lynched today something like this could work. You protect me tonight. Crucially, though, you flip a coin and protect yourself if it turns up heads.

The wolves would have to risk a 50-50 shot if they go for either of us, which would be risky. If we both live through the night, I can tell you what you did confirming me, and there's a 50% chance you protected me, in which case I could confirm you.

[Qgqqqqq]

back (briefly)

@molach i voted uber even though it didnt count because i had no read on Bigger/thestick then.
otoh i voted icha, to make it count because he was on my "list" and other candidate wasnt.

I dont understand your point about "omfg"? What is wrong with being upset at two villagers dieing in one night.

[Gaspar]

Not going to get a chance to do anything here - fairly involved PBEM turn tonight and I got in very late. Obviously will move off Injera with the claim but I'll have to wait til morning to reread.

Love these cluster... days.

[Twinkletoes89]

Well, if you are a villager and neither of us are lynched today something like this could work. You protect me tonight. Crucially, though, you flip a coin and protect yourself if it turns up heads.

The wolves would have to risk a 50-50 shot if they go for either of us, which would be risky. If we both live through the night, I can tell you what you did confirming me, and there's a 50% chance you protected me, in which case I could confirm you.

It may be because its 5am here but I don't get this reasoning.

The wolves would have no need to play your little game. There are plenty of other people they can night kill instead and you have nothing. And declaring it like this as if 'it could work' is just totally bogus IMO.

Anyway, time for sleep

[Lewwyn]

Just got up. In the end I think Injera's claim doesn't tell us whether or not Matt is guilty.

If you are a villager, you're just going to have to use your best judgment for out-guessing the wolves. Setting up any sort of test is likely to just get you eaten.

Let me break this down.

Well, if Mattimeo is a villager and we lynch him then Injera is dead tonight no matter what we do, (Unless Injera is a wolf). If Matt is who he says he is then not lynching him and having him protect Injera, keeps Injera alive and possibly kills Mattimeo, but then we were going to lynch him anyway so I guess that's helpful. If we try to set up a test in which Matt cloaks Injera and Injera scans him we might find out the truth but lose Matt in the process.

Well before Injera claimed we had decided to wait on Mattimeo anyway. Considering that our tracker just put himself in the danger zone now lynching the claimed "cloaker" seems like a bad choice. If Matt IS a wolf then either Injera's going to die tonight or the wolves are going to avoid killing him to make Matt look good. If Matt is a villager he can at least protect Injera tonight or die in the process. Either way, keeping Mattimeo alive today gives us the highest chance of keeping Injera alive another night to track whomever he wants, be it Mattimeo or some other hunch.

tl;dr : Now that Injera has claimed, lynching Mattimeo is actually the stupidest thing to do. Or the scumiest. Catwalk.

[Lewwyn]

I think that was a good claim to make Injera, it's worth losing a power role in exchange for a wolf that can give is more leads. I do think you messed up the reveal a little as has been mentioned, as it gives Mattimeo more chances to make up a story. Incidentally, you just gave me an excellent argument for why Mattimeo should have claimed his night actions earlier that I never thought of myself. If he'd revealed his night actions then, you would have been able to catch him lying even more easily.

Voting Mattimeo based on the claim, likely to keep it there unless Mattimeo has a strongly compelling story to tell.

Oh man. "It's worth losing a power role in exchange for a wolf that can give us more leads". And what if Mattimeo is a villager and we lose two PRs for nothing?

BTW this post is the reason I just revoted you in my last post even though I was telling myself, "Go look at other people today"...

Right now I think my second choice on the day is waterbat. I'll probably talk about that a little this afternoon.

[Lewwyn]

BTW Off topic, but is just me or when you guys see this thread from the index you see "WW16 The Outlaws and The..." and then you think to yourself, "...and the law won." I swear every time I see it, GES's sig is repeated in my mind like a broken record.

[pindicator]

Well, I guess I'll let this act play out and we can decide how to settle injera / mattimeo tomorrow. In the mean time, Qgqqqqq