Catwalk Wrote:My suspects based on the vote: Molach
Mattimeo was a lost cause at this point, he may well have abandoned him. His vote implies that he thinks he was casting the deciding vote, when in fact TT did that a little earlier.
pindicator
Refused to vote against either suspect, in spite of being around:
Last time he did this, he first defended his position of not voting because he didn't feel either player was scum. He then seemed to acknowledge that this was anti-town (because it gives scum more influence over the lynch), but gladly does the exact same thing again. Smells like wolf trying (and failing) to distance himself.
Injera
Cast a single vote (on me) all day, 3 hours after day start. Spends all day coming up with a test that can supposedly prove Mattimeo's innocence. Doesn't seem to care much, after it is pointed out repeatedly, that it doesn't matter if Mattimeo's ability name is confirmed or not. Sounds a little too risky to me to be a scum play, but also smells a lot like it.
Catwalk Wrote:I don't think there's any use in Injera proving his power. As with Mattimeo, he can easily be telling the truth and be scum. Same with Qg. IMO they should both do their best to hunt scum tonight and forget about tests.
I agree with all this except Molach. As you say, Molach thought he was casting the deciding vote, so I don't think you can claim that Mattimeo was unsalvageable.
I don't think you'll find many scum on the final Mattimeo vote. The whole bandwagon (re)started from scratch with 53 minutes remaining, with Qgqqqqq at 10 votes and Mattimeo at 0 votes. (here: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post297610)
As such I think we should look for our primary suspects among the people not voting for Mattimeo. I would add some more:
In fact I'd say that all of Selrahc, Tasunke, Gaspar, Jkaen, Qgqqqqq, Pindicator, Injera, Azza and Lewwyn need to be scrutinized. Among those I'm leaning most village on Lewwyn, Azza, Jkaen and Qgqqqqq.
Will be very interesed in the day 4 spreadsheet once its made available, vote swing graph should be of note, plus I want to look at who was on the first Matt wagon who didnt make it onto the final one (and am too lazy to try and dig that data up myself).
I don't feel strongly on Molach, I guess he should not be on the list. My point was that this was good timing if the objective was gaining cover, and there was a very strong push for Mattimeo at the time. As scum, he may well have reasoned that more villagers would follow shortly so he wanted to get in while his vote was still worth some town credit. So I'll keep him on my list, but on the last spot in terms of suspicion (based on the vote pattern alone). I agree with your points about who you're leaning villager about, mainly because most of those were not around when the Mattimeo wagon sprung back to life.
novice Wrote:In fact I'd say that all of Selrahc, Tasunke, Gaspar, Jkaen, Qgqqqqq, Pindicator, Injera, Azza and Lewwyn need to be scrutinized. Among those I'm leaning most village on Lewwyn, Azza, Jkaen and Qgqqqqq.
While I do agree with the first part I would like your reasoning why you think Azza & Jkaen villagerish.
Its not that I suspect Azza heavily but I have absolute no read on him and the only thing that I remember about him is a last minute appearance to vote off Merovech after 30 hours of silence.
About Jkaen: His play sofar was starting a pointless fight with Meiz on day 1, dooing the same with me during night2/day3 with me. Pushing Bigger to 4 votes when both thestick and Mattimeo were in reach.
Additional: I brought the pindi-case first time during night 1 and day 2 exactly those time-frames that Jkaen later found so scummy from me but on day 4 he suddenly realises 'Hey rowain good case' and votes for pindicator? I would really like your read on all this(mine has a chance to be biased) and a question to Jkaen why was my post from day 4 so different for you that you went after pindicator when you ignored it on day2 (even thought me scum therefor).
I'm reading through the thread in order to summarize everything Injera has said and done, focusing on interaction with other players. I'm trying to represent his words and actions objectively, so I've left out interpretations. Got up to 19 posts out of 116 so far, will probably try out waterbat's tool when I resume. Not sure if this is really worth the time spent, though.
11: Defends me, follows a joke vote on Gaspar by Bigger with another joke vote on him
14: Pushes Ichabod for not voting in his first post
24: Defends me, saying I wouldn't fake being busy in RL
35: Repeats defense of me, saying it would be too bold a play as wolf to open that way
39: Sticks with the defense, opposing the claim that he was ignoring a comment by Zakalwe about it and stresses the point about not wanting to accuse someone on basis of being away
45: Pursues Gaspar, claiming Gaspar said he wasn't accusing me when in fact he was
51: Pursues Gaspar further, asking why he felt the need to justify a D1 joke vote
NOTE: At this point Injera has very high visibility, roughly 1/7 of all posts in a game with 26 players (not sure if that means anything, seems he went to bed at this point)
119: Questions waterbat on how he knows I'm actually busy
120: Defends thestick from novice, arguing that his quote questioning is not suspicious and shooting down novice's argument based on last game
122: Criticizes Gaspar for accusing him without explaining the accusation, points the finger back at him
123: Questions Bigger for trusting Zakalwe and Gaspar and asks why he finds Injera and himself suspicious
128: I brag about never hanging
132: Suggests thestick is not suspicious for his questioning style, saying it's too obvious based on our experience with him
138: Adresses Merovech's question (about whether thestick is normally devious as a wolf) with a statement about how heavily thestick was pursued (by the town) last game as a villager, says he's leary of a case against thestick based on one post 139: Tells zakalwe that he'd much prefer novice as mayor over zakalwe
146: Injera asks waterbat for a reason, then presents his case against Gaspar (in response to zakalwe's request for it): His early vote on me (based on the 48h afk message), his response to two early joke votes and claiming Gaspar is flip flopping on whether or not the vote on me was a joke vote or not
147: Rebutts zakalwe's comment about only having one post on thestick, repeating his statement that we shouldn't hang thestick on basis of a single post
150: Claims that Gaspar is suspicious for linking me with Injera without stating it outright,
157: Insists (to zakalwe) that Gaspar backed off about the link between me and Injera, and repeats the point about Gaspar casting suspicion on me without really owning up to it.
Rowain Wrote:While I do agree with the first part I would like your reasoning why you think Azza & Jkaen villagerish.
Its not that I suspect Azza heavily but I have absolute no read on him and the only thing that I remember about him is a last minute appearance to vote off Merovech after 30 hours of silence.
About Jkaen: His play sofar was starting a pointless fight with Meiz on day 1, dooing the same with me during night2/day3 with me. Pushing Bigger to 4 votes when both thestick and Mattimeo were in reach.
Additional: I brought the pindi-case first time during night 1 and day 2 exactly those time-frames that Jkaen later found so scummy from me but on day 4 he suddenly realises 'Hey rowain good case' and votes for pindicator? I would really like your read on all this(mine has a chance to be biased) and a question to Jkaen why was my post from day 4 so different for you that you went after pindicator when you ignored it on day2 (even thought me scum therefor).
The actions of Jkaen and Azza don't do much to clear them, so my village lean is just based on tone/gut feeling. I'll post some analysis of the first Mattimeo bandwagon next, and Jkaen doesn't look too good there either. I still think he walks and talks like a villager, though. If people feel differently they should vote based on evidence and their own gut feel though, not based on mine.
Okay, analysis of the first Mattimeo wagon on day 4. My impression is that day 4 started with the village being rather lost and putting votes here and there. There was a bit of parrying between Rowain and me/Jkaen. After the following votes
(no official tally had been posted at this point).
Then the first wave of suspicion on Mattimeo starts with this post:
Mattimeo Wrote:Changes to lynching patterns due to a slight in geneal activity levels seems like a bad precedent to be setting...
I also don't see how people being inactive, as opposed to simply not playing, is all that detrimental in the current state. We don't need an absolute majority to lynch, just more than is on any other candidate. Inactives have as good a chance of decucting a vote against a town as they do against a wolf.
Twinkletoes89 for both the point last night about how only a scum novice would still be alive this morning, and the post this morning containing only a vote. I can only assume that the justifiction is what I just mentioned, but it's not exactly that difficult to refer to your reasoning...
Followed by
novice Wrote:You're voting for TT because he didn't state the reason for his vote, even though the reason is obvious?
Why do we have a baner when Bigger said we wouldn't have one?
Why have you not been able to protect anyone?
Very tempted to vote for you.
And
waterbat Wrote:I have to agree that the lack of any countermovement against Catwalk until the very end makes him lean village.
starting to think that the reason day1 was such a cluster was that we had 2 wolves up there to start things off.
Mattimeo
cue Meiz coming in and saying this isnt the first vote of the day on Mattimeo - its actually the second since novice said he was tempted to vote
Yes Waterbat, I started it again even though you cast the first vote. And I saw it through to the end too. :D
Following this, still no official tallies, and the following people expressed suspicion of Mattimeo and/or voted for him:
Not Voting -
Rowain, Lewwyn, Ichabod, Arromir, Selrahc
He's missed my switch to Ichabod due to crossposting, and he mistakenly has Meiz voting Injera (is actually not voting), Lewwyn not voting (is actually voting Rowain). Continuing, morphing over to a post-by-post summary:
Gaspar Wrote:@work but I just saw this development so thought i'd comment quickly.
I'm iffy on the Mattimeo claim, which I made pretty clear on day 2. But I think it's awfully risky, we're going to feel like jackasses if he flips blue. To me I'd rather give him another night or two and maybe he guesses right. If not, we can lynch him since he's not actually contributing much to scumhunting.
I'm absorbing, I'll comment thoroughly tonight.
At its peak the first Mattimeo wagon had the following people voting:
Waterbat, Tasunke, Meiz, Novice, Lewwyn, TT (Lewwyn unvoted shortly before TT voted though).
Various votes as people move their votes from Mattimeo
First official tally of the day:
40 minutes later, in the next post, Injera claims.
Impressions:
The buildup on Mattimeo was very organic.
I think Injera claimed to clear himself, not to save Mattimeo.
Ichabod's reasoning for shutting down the Mattimeo wagon made sense at the time. Gaspar and Pindicator seemed to work against the Mattimeo wagon. Jkaen was hesitant to get on.
novice Wrote:The actions of Jkaen and Azza don't do much to clear them, so my village lean is just based on tone/gut feeling. I'll post some analysis of the first Mattimeo bandwagon next, and Jkaen doesn't look too good there either. I still think he walks and talks like a villager, though. If people feel differently they should vote based on evidence and their own gut feel though, not based on mine.
I should add that I've misread wolf Jkaen as villager before, so he does seem to have the ability to dupe me.
Rowain Wrote:While I do agree with the first part I would like your reasoning why you think Azza & Jkaen villagerish.
Its not that I suspect Azza heavily but I have absolute no read on him and the only thing that I remember about him is a last minute appearance to vote off Merovech after 30 hours of silence.
About Jkaen: His play sofar was starting a pointless fight with Meiz on day 1, dooing the same with me during night2/day3 with me. Pushing Bigger to 4 votes when both thestick and Mattimeo were in reach.
Additional: I brought the pindi-case first time during night 1 and day 2 exactly those time-frames that Jkaen later found so scummy from me but on day 4 he suddenly realises 'Hey rowain good case' and votes for pindicator? I would really like your read on all this(mine has a chance to be biased) and a question to Jkaen why was my post from day 4 so different for you that you went after pindicator when you ignored it on day2 (even thought me scum therefor).
I am pretty sure we have been through this before, but ok.
The main section that I think you refer to that I found scummy was where you had lots of posts all in a row asking questions.
Day 4 you have you opinion on stuff, and didnt just pass the buck to others
He's missed my switch to Ichabod due to crossposting, and he mistakenly has Meiz voting Injera (is actually not voting), Lewwyn not voting (is actually voting Rowain).
Hmm messed that up a bit didnt I
novice Wrote:JKaen makes a post I don't really understand but I think maybe it's meant to defend Mattimeo? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296938
JKaen follows up with "Hmm interesting that the first 2 to jump off Mattimeo are Pind and TT" - still not sure what Jkaen is talking about here.
These are actually me getting a mafia lean on Pind, Novice & TT. The fact that 2 of those jump off Mattiemo first I found an interesting coincidence
