WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Twinkletoes89]

Starting to catch up all i missed



TT, you complained when we didnt go for those and were going to delay, you complain now we are not delaying. Are you just going to complain on every decision the village makes just to distance yourself from the lynches?

To answer this point.

I don't like big swings. After I had been seemingly banging my head against a brick wall with these arguments for a long time, suddenly people start parroting it near the deadline and a large swing develops.

I think its human to start to doubt yourself when you see such a huge swing at the end to lynch someone. I began to think that the mafia may be making a last move to save another mafia in Qgqqqqq for someone I seemed to be alone in pushing for their lynch for a while.

There is still a nagging doubt that for such a swing to occur, it must have been at least partly manufactured by the mafia, but it could be my paranoia.

Seen as novice was critical in leading the swing, I expect that if he is innocent that he will die tonight. If not, people really need to start thinking why. I'm nowhere near as good a catherder as he is, so if he is innocent, he is much more dangerous to the mafia than I am

[waterbat]

Yes, but he's more likely to be tracked , protected, whatevered, as well. They also know- the longer he is alive, the more suspicious he becomes. We've definitely seen some creative night kills in the past few games. Noone would surprise me.

[Lewwyn]

Long day here. I've read everything (I think) and I have to say I don't have too much to add. I primarily agree with most of what novice had to say. He did a lot of the work in vote compilations and it makes it pretty easy to see where we get a bit of a start of our suspect pool. Now novice does lead focus away from final Mattimeo voters but I don't think we can fully absolve them. However novice is likely right that the wolves are like non-Matt voters. Its a bit of a catch 22. We can't examine everyone, so we have to pick the more likely group to start with.

Of everyone left, the people I trust most are novice, Meiz, waterbat and catwalk. Feels odd to say Catwalk but I simply see no way for him to be a wolf. Likewise waterbat who I examined yesterday and convinced me of his villageryness.

Now:

Seen as novice was critical in leading the swing, I expect that if he is innocent that he will die tonight. If not, people really need to start thinking why. I'm nowhere near as good a catherder as he is, so if he is innocent, he is much more dangerous to the mafia than I am

This is slightly paranoid in my mind. I actually think its more likely the wolves will kill one of the two power role claimers, if they are villagers. I don't think the wolves can afford not to kill them if they are villagers actively watching for night kills.

[Gaspar]

I definitely feel a bit untethered to the game at the moment. I always hate claim day and everything happened too fast for me to really follow it, not to mention I didn't get a chance to watch it while it was happening. Anyway, I think the only major point I'd make is that I think we shouldn't overstate the impact of this vote in terms of scum-hunting, particularly without knowing Injera and Qgqqqqq's alignments. If I was scum, I'd feel Mattimeo were particularly bussable because he wasn't really playing well in the thread, regardless of his power. Despite claiming the most pro-village role he had suspicion on literally every day period. I didn't have the guts to put my money where my mouth was but I definitely didn't like his claim or his play. So I think there's a decent chance he got abandoned early and there can definitely be scum on his lynch tally.

Just too many players left for the "ok, now we've got them lynch," particularly with the information we have now. I'd agree that there are more villagers in the Mattimeo lynch than scum, but I'd bet everything there's a couple scum on him as well.

[Tasunke]

Anyway, I think the only major point I'd make is that I think we shouldn't overstate the impact of this vote in terms of scum-hunting, particularly without knowing Injera and Qgqqqqq's alignments. If I was scum, I'd feel Mattimeo were particularly bussable because he wasn't really playing well in the thread, regardless of his power. Despite claiming the most pro-village role he had suspicion on literally every day period. I didn't have the guts to put my money where my mouth was but I definitely didn't like his claim or his play. So I think there's a decent chance he got abandoned early and there can definitely be scum on his lynch tally.

Just too many players left for the "ok, now we've got them lynch," particularly with the information we have now. I'd agree that there are more villagers in the Mattimeo lynch than scum, but I'd bet everything there's a couple scum on him as well.

I would tend to agree. Namely, I think that a few things can be inferred from Matty boy's alignment, but that it isn't some GOBLET OF TRUTH that will show us the way to ALL of the other wolves.

[Tasunke]

Tasunke, you were on the first Mattimeo bandwagon. Why didn't you get on the second one?

I simply wasn't around for the second one. This was yesterday correct? Well, I don't remember when last I was logged on, but it was sometime before noon, and then I wasn't logged on again until 6 or so.

(school from noon-2, then errands that kept me busy after that)

So unfortunately I missed that entire last hour of glory

[novice]

@everyone:

I've summarized the first part of day 4, but we should also study the part starting with Injera's claim. I doubt we've thought through all the implications there and what does and doesn't make sense, there wasn't time for that yesterday.

I'll probably be busy for the rest of night 4 so if you need +2 villager points, feel free to analyze this / share your thoughts.

[Tasunke]

so if you need +2 villager points, feel free to analyze this / share your thoughts.

who but a wolf (or possessed) talks like this? :D

[novice]

@Tasunke. Okay. Here's your timeline, for future reference.

7 hours before the lynch Brick has just posted this tally,

Official Lynch Vote Count

Catwalk - 6 - Injera, Azza, Ichabod, Qgqqqqq, Lewwyn, Waterbat
Qgqqqqq - 5 - Molach, Selrahc, Pindicator, novice, Catwalk
Mattimeo - 2 - Twinkletoes89, tasunke
Injera - 1 - Gaspar
Pindicator - 1 - Jkaen
Selrahc - 1 - Meiz
Twinkletoes89 - 1 - Mattimeo

Players not voting: Arromir, Rowain

And you post this, your last post before the lynch.

I think I'd like Qqqq rather than Catwalk for the block.

(Switching from Mattimeo, whose wagon had lost steam at that point I think.)

And this is your first post after the lynch, 1.5 hours after the lynch.

I'll have to go back and look at Matt's claim, but I think he claimed "His ability + Baner" or at least implied that his ability would also work like a baner (being a sort of 'super' baner)

which was perhaps one of the best reasons I saw today for not lynching him.

Not going anywhere in particular with this, just noting it.

Although let me ask: Why did you feel the need to mention your reason for not lynching Mattimeo when you had in fact pursued him and only abandoned him when he seemed unlynchable?

[Rowain]

A few comments.
a) If we assume 4 scum left then we have at the moment 3 mislynches left (=4th loses)

b) Given how many missed the Mattimeo-lynchI am far more willing to lynch any of those than one of the Mattimeo-voters.

c) It is also interesting that with the exception of Tasunke evryone who missed the Matt-lynch also missed the thestick-lynch.