WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Gaspar]

Anyway, I'm off to work in a couple so I'll only have intermittent access through the North American afternoon/night, though I don't think we have a ton of talkative Western Hemisphere players left. If anyone wants to hear something from me, spit it and I'll try and respond from mobile.

As far as my theory - my main contention is that we shouldn't think we have everything figured out, its too early and its unlikely the scum is that bad given what we've seen of them. If I were gambling I'd say our remaining scum team is a lurker, a pair of strong blenders and an alpha. There's only a few remaining candidates for alpha so I'm content to let that lie while the night kills do that work for us. So the blenders seem the best target. The Alpha is almost certainly among the Mattimeo voters, the blenders could go either way. But I feel pretty good about Lewwyn - unless he's well into some long con he's behaved really strangely thus far.

[BRickAstley]

Official Lynch Vote Count

Azza - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Catwalk, Lewwyn
Lewwyn - 3 - Gaspar, Ichabod, Waterbat
Gaspar - 3 - novice, Rowain, Pindicator
Pindicator - 2 - Injera, Jkaen
Selrahc - 1 - Molach
Injera - 1 - tasunke

Players not voting: Azza, Meiz, Selrahc

[Catwalk]

I'm not sure what's been strange about Lewwyn. He's been a little fixated on his obsession with me, but that's hardly surprising. He could well be using our ongoing love fest as a cover for being scum while appearing active, but he appears genuine to me. What's the case against Lewwyn?

[Rowain]

So to think we have some completely disorganized team just screwing up left and right just doesn't fit the evidence IMO. I think we have some quality scum leaders and some solid blenders. And right now, I think Lewwyn has contributed absolutely nothing this game and looks like a good bet for one of our experienced blenders.

Absolutly agree with this. the fact that we don't have anymore postrestrictions also points heavily in that direction.

As far as my theory - my main contention is that we shouldn't think we have everything figured out, its too early and its unlikely the scum is that bad given what we've seen of them. If I were gambling I'd say our remaining scum team is a lurker, a pair of strong blenders and an alpha. There's only a few remaining candidates for alpha so I'm content to let that lie while the night kills do that work for us. So the blenders seem the best target. The Alpha is almost certainly among the Mattimeo voters, the blenders could go either way. But I feel pretty good about Lewwyn - unless he's well into some long con he's behaved really strangely thus far.

What do you think of Meiz in that regard?

unvote

[Twinkletoes89]

Guys, how many mislynches do we have left before we lose?

[Meiz]

It's a thought, one I'm going to look back at posts and see if they back the theory. I also had another theory in the posts that followed, so will have to check that too.

Eagerly waiting those. Reasons behind your vote today sounded a bit sketchy . I mean yo usaid you voted Gaspar because of Injera's and Jkaens push. But you don't have any case against the two and when asked about it, you're going to investigate and come back to that later? :D

@Gaspar, I don't get your theory at all. It's like you've decided the optimal wolf pack theory and are now looking for people who fit these roles. FYI, the roles were assigned randomly, as far as I know.

I do agree that it's definitely in realm of possibilities that wolves voted Matt. It would still not be my #1 group to target today. Remember that wolves could count in Matt to proof his ability with whatever test village invented. It did exist after all... So IMO it makes the likelyhood of bussing him smaller, at least for the early voters. I consider novice, Waterbat, Catwalk and twinkletoes as the main pushers for the wagon and gonna give biggest village leans for them.

Selrahc & pindicator would be my top picks for today.

Selrahc for... yeah...

And Pind: There was a chance to save thestick (strong wolf PR), since he was not voting Bigger yet and some people kept repeating how obvious it was that wolves sat happily at the sidelines, while villager was being lynched. That and the claim of thestick. I'd say it was extremely possible that someone would get cold feet and switch away. So I find pind's switch to Merovech very odd villager move (what's the villager motive for it?), and therefore finding it suspicious. With this in mind, I also find his unvoting of thestick while "checking another person" suspicious. And third, pind posts, thestick claims two minutes after and there is no reaction from pind. It's like he is quietly waiting and looking if people buy the claim or not.

Neither voted Matt either. Selrahc had questioned Matt's claim (mildly IMO). In the end he still voted Qgqq and I think it tells a lot.

Pindicator


Just realized something while typing this. If Injera would be wolf with unlimited following, why would thestick claim 2-shot watcher...?

[Selrahc]

Guys, how many mislynches do we have left before we lose?

Assuming a standard 25% rate, we have 6/7 wolves at start of game. From what we've seen so far, I'm leaning more towards 6 wolves with a little bit of generosity in terms of powers.

We have 16 players left, probably 4 wolves. That would give us 3 mislynches before we hit the "every lynch must hit" zone. If there are 5 wolves, we only have 2 more allowable mislynches.

[Gaspar]

@Rowain - Meiz could be a definite blender and if he flipped scum we'd have to look at novice playing the ballsiest scum game of all time. I picked Lewwyn because he felt most off to me though. I also find myself disagreeing with Meiz a lot which is consistent with village Meiz. So I'm 50/50.

@Meiz - I haven't picked optimal pack theory, I picked likely pack theory based on what we've seen so far. Optimal pack theory obviously wouldn't have thestick and Mattimeo imploding under pressure on day 1.

@TT - almost definitely 6 wolves hence 3 mislynches, based on both scum having PRs. If they were both vanilla I might buy 7.

[novice]

So is Lewwyn a blender or an alpha, Gaspar?

[Catwalk]

Gaspar, is this the best approach at this time? I recall you saying in another game that the town should pursue the most obvious explanations first, then pursue gambit style theories later. I don't think we're at that point yet, maybe tomorrow? We can keep grilling novice in the meantime, as long as he hangs wolves there's no need to kill him. And in case he's villager, luring the wolves into keeping him alive is not a bad thing either.