WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Gaspar]

I don't fully buy your explanation, but if it's genuine:

I jumped up to a 5-2 lead in the vote. If you think all of those voters were villagers some wolves would surely jump on at that point, no? I think it likely there's some scum there. I don't disagree that a wolf might defend me, but I think the meta-case is strong enough that plenty of villagers would as well.

I suppose its confirmation bias, I have the players behind me on you in the village camp in my brain. Of those who followed me, I could be talked into Azza most, though I generally agree with novice's assessment.

[novice]

Why not use that absurdly harsh PR on Novice?

That is a good question.

The only thing I can think of is that the poetic justice of using a post restriction that I invented in WW14 on me was too big a temptation.

[Injera]

When he got post restricted, he suddely became a lot more active. I think he made more posts on day 3, with that compeltely crippling PR, than he made in day 1 and 2.

He said ahead of time:

I'll be attending to a training starting from today, ending on thursday. Will be overnight and with evening programs, so I'm going to be restricted to mobile access.

Which coincided with him getting hit with the PR that Friday if I remember correctly. I don't know if that says anything either way.

Anyway, after the PR, meiz started to sound more like the Meiz I'm used to as a villager. His characteristic posts returned. It fits with him finding more time, but it also feels to have something to do with some players already calling him about it.

I actually disagree with this, but get a similar "vibe". I don't know if it's a case of having been a wolf with him as a villager, but I remember last game after novice was caught him doing a very thorough break-down of his posts that exposed some of us, and Zak mentioning how much catching the first scum helps to catch the others in the NAP thread. I haven't really seen that same level of analysis from him this game. Then again, nearly everyone has been off their game.

[Twinkletoes89]

That is a good question.

The only thing I can think of is that the poetic justice of using a post restriction that I invented in WW14 on me was too big a temptation.

I don't really buy that and I also am unsure on why they would post-restrict someone like you in some ways.

I mean, why give people something that can potentially confirm them as villager - especially so early on when the possibility of a baner-like role being around and with enough people alive to make them hard to find?

It just doesn't add up to me.

I want an end to this - and as you cannot die right now novice, it has to be Meiz

[Meiz]

His day 1 and 2 play were pretty lacking, he only voted for Tasunke (first post vote), Jkaen (which he sticked to during all day 1, despite all the happenings between thestick, Mattimeo and Bigger), Waterbat and Pindicator. Post 209 by meiz seem very similar to the one that thestick got caught, so it's worth taking a look. Questions, comments directed to players, not much substance (and that was his main post on day 1, I think).

When he got post restricted, he suddely became a lot more active. I think he made more posts on day 3, with that compeltely crippling PR, than he made in day 1 and 2. Maybe he had more time, maybe he found it interesting to try and pass his message with the PR, but see this:

I still feel that the sudden surge of contribution by meiz after the (extremely difficult to justify) PR is strange. Yeah, it fits with him being busy, but still. Why would a player who was silent for that long time suddenly start posting that much after a PR...

It's a nice theory, but the truth is that I honestly was reserved for the weekend at our cabin with a lot of work to do. Sunday was 4 hours of driving back to home, so I missed the end of day 1. So the "sudden activity" comes from the fact that weekend was over... I've explained this before, it's a different thing if you don't believe me.

Why waste the PR on Meiz, risking him being cleared as a villager when the PR wolf goes down?

Doesn't seem to be working. Even if we'd find the PR wolf, it would not guarantee that wolves wouldn't use the power on fellow wolves.

Why not use that absurdly harsh PR on Novice?

I guess at least one member of the wolf team has a sense of humor.

I don't think it's a good idea to investigate the post restrictor this way. If a post restrictor exists, muting two villagers seems like a pretty good move. Their posting is limited, and someone was bound to start throwing suspicion on them for it eventually. And given the mounting suspicion, it makes sense to let them live until a mislynch can be secured.

Thank you, I hate how it seems to be working.

---

Two of the 5 days, Meiz has voted for you. The other 3, (from memory) he voted a sole vote on someone, lynched Merovech and lynched Mattimeo. If you flipped scum, he's got a good enough voting record to lean village on him. If you flipped village, he's got very little to theoretically clear him IMO.

I think it's possible that both you and Meiz are villagers. But I think the post restriction on Meiz was used by the mafia to divert attention away from Meiz. His voting record merely fails to convince me he's village, rather than damning him.

I find it really strange that big part of your case against me seems to rely on my voting record. But like pointed out, I've voted Pindicator on 2 days, I voted Jkaen on day 1 and I also voted Mattimeo to death. So you started with "bad voting record" argument, but after questioning about it, you lowered to it "voting record doesn't imply villager". I agree my voting record is much worse if Pind flips villager, but we don't know that yet. I'm wondering if you slipped outside knowledge to your original argument, but I guess seeing pind now as a villager could also explain it.

Also the diverting attention away from me, I don't think I would have needed that as a wolf. Who had suspected me at that point?

---

Meaning I'm willing to lynch Meiz, so I'm not just asking because I'm curious what Ichabod has to say about it. I'm also willing to lynch Ichabod, so I'm curious since he said that the Meiz lynch would put the post-restrictor question to bed. I'm especially curious as to how he thinks it would be put to bed.

I guess short of Meiz being the Post Restrictor, I don't think we actually learn too much about novice. I'm against a lynch test at this point in the game, honestly - I want real info. But since I can see Meiz being scum, I can justify the lynch on those terms. Also, since Ichabod has been the most active pursuant of this line (outside of TT, who is TT) my devilish super-conspirator keeps thinking maybe he knows something more about it than the rest of us do and has been setting up mislynches with it.

I don't get you at all Gaspar. I might understand this wrong, but it seems like you suspect Ichabod and want to test his alignment by lynching me first, basically. Now why am I starting to think that you already knowing how I'm going to flip?

---

What's annoying about Selrahc is that I'm "100%" sure of his guilt, but then his latest posts put doubts again on my head.

Why are you avoiding Selrahc today, Tasunke?


//crossposting. I agree that I haven't probably delivered as thorough analyses as in previous games. It just takes so damned much of time in this game, more work than enjoying the game.

[Gaspar]

Anyway, mobile for the rest of the day for me. I'll do my best to be available between now and lynch but no promises.

[Gaspar]

I don't get you at all Gaspar. I might understand this wrong, but it seems like you suspect Ichabod and want to test his alignment by lynching me first, basically. Now why am I starting to think that you already knowing how I'm going to flip?

Begging the question, Meiz.

I've spent the last two days with the strong nagging suspicion that Ichabod or Lewwyn is a wolf. Neither of them gains any traction, and I've not had the time to lay out a long post-analysis case so right now the option that gives me the most info is you. That wouldn't be enough on its own, but I've had you on my maybe pile all game so that's enough to throw me over the top.

Anyway, I'm available enough to be persuaded but telling me I know your alignment already isn't going to manage that. Away for real now.

[Injera]

I suppose its confirmation bias, I have the players behind me on you in the village camp in my brain.

That's the thing, though. If you're a villager, and you think those who jumped on me are villagers, then there would 5 village voters on the ideal mislynch- the honey doesn't get any sweeter than that! Even if they fail to mislynch me, they still have five villagers who were thinking that I was an appropriate target, so there's no harm parking their vote there.

I simply can't believe there's not some wolves among on my voters.

(x-post)

[novice]

What do you think about Gaspar? Or for that matter, the rest of the field?

Gaspar is shady, but like I said earlier his villagerness seems to be proportional to the time he has available to invest in the game.

The rest of the field I put on my villager list in post 2714 for various reasons, I can enumerate them if you insist but I actually think it might be suboptimal to reveal all my town reads right now. (Besides, many of them are hard to explain.)

Preview: I agree with Meiz though that Gaspar's stance on Meiz is weird.
Oh and Injera, save me the trouble - who were those voters?

[Injera]

Oh and Injera, save me the trouble - who were those voters?

The voters on me? Gaspar, Azza, TT, Tasunke, waterbat.

I think the waterbat thing was more of a personal thing as I mentioned he hadn't been updating his scraper, but he actually had- the title page listing which posts it covers wasn't (and isn't ) up to date.