The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[Sullla]

Apolyton also founded a city this turn (T44). That means we can plan out what they've been doing in the capital since the beginning.

* Move first turn, settle T1

* Worker first (T11)

* Grow to size 4 (T23)

* Settler (8t), finishes T31, city founded T32

* Worker (4t)

* Settler (8t), finishes T43, city founded T44

Their second city has grown to size 3, so they did not build a worker there. Two workers for three cities again. They do not have Bronze Working yet. They are probably an unlikely player for Stonehenge at this point.

[kjn]

Thanks for the heads up.

Apolyton's second city adds eight tiles to their empire, so it's probably inland.

Also note how the Germans and Apolyton have been pushing the food output with their new cities (to 32 for the Germans and 34 for Apolyton), and the new top GNP (42).

[kjn]

T45 - 2200 BC

Cliff's Notes: CivFr received 11 land points, the Germans grew their second city to size 4 and immediately whipped it to 2, the Spanish grew their capital to 4, and CivPlayers grew their second city to size 3.

Demos:

A whopping four pop increases this turn, from the Spanish, the Germans, and CivPlayers, and to top it off CivFr received land points for their second ring. Good thing I set up the land tracking score. And then the Germans immediately whipped off two pop.

Lets start with the Germans. Since they did a 2-pop whip, they must have grown their second city to size 4 and immediately whipped it. That puts them at two size 2 cities and one size 1 city. That's the easy one.

Top cities tells us we didn't get any new size 5-cities, and demos gives us a modest total new population of 42000, so it's one city growing to size 4 and one to size 3. That puts the pop increases on the Spanish capital and the second city of CivPlayers.

[kjn]

I'm going to be away from Civ from Friday morning to late Sunday evening (GMT +1). I will likely have Internet access but be quite busy with all sorts of things.

So if someone else can take care of the C&D duties during that time I'd be much obliged.

[Sullla]

I will make any score/pop changes in the online spreadsheet, and leave anything else to you. We are likely to play only one turn during those three days, so... no hurry.

[kjn]

Yeah, the main thing is to get the demos screen shots each turn, and hopefully after each new city settlement as well. The analysis can wait, and there is good people here to look into any really important changes.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

BTW, thanks again kjn. We really appreciate your efforts! You have been amazing this game.

[mostly_harmless]

Demoscreen from almost right after turn roll:

mh

[Sullla]

Here are the mid-turn Demographics, not looking much different:



Now, as far as what happened this turn.

* We discovered Mysticism, accounting for our six points.

* Apolyton gained two points, an increase of one pop point. From Demographics pop tracking, we can easily deduce that their capital grew to size 5. Right now Apolyton has 9 pop points, one more than us and the most in the game.

* CivFr gained six points, an Ancient Age tech. Since they discovered Wheel six turns ago, and there were virtually no new Soldier points this turn, we can be pretty certain that this was a Pottery discovery. It's by far the most logical tech, and it fits nicely with ETA discovery and Soldier point increase.

* UniversCiv is the most interesting case. They gained eight points, which indicateds a pop gain and a new tech. Their third city grew from size 1 to size 2, so that part is easy. Their tech discovery is more complicated. Global Power rating grew by 2k points, which rules out many potential techs for UniversCiv. They did not get Archery, Wheel, or Bronze Working. But they also couldn't discover most of the other Ancient Age techs either! They didn't get a religious tech, as it would have shown up in the event logger. They could not get Pottery because they do not have Wheel. It took them 11t to discover a tech, which feels much too long for Fishing. I guess they could have researched Masonry or Writing, but that feels too bizarre even for a team that's not playing well. What did they get?

Here's my best guess: when UniversCiv discovered their last tech on T35, we weren't entirely sure what it was. I thought it was Wheel, and kjn marked it into our chart as Mining. But there was a fairly large Power increase that turn, and we weren't entirely sure. I believe that UniversCiv actually got Wheel on T35, and discovered Mining tech on this turn, which would explain that 2k global Power increase. Any other scenario feels too far-fetched to me, as I can't imagine even a bad team neglecting basic worker techs to research something like Masonry. I will leave the table with a question mark for now, and see what kjn thinks about this tomorrow when he gets back. But I would argue that swapping around Wheel/Mining makes the most sense.

Regardless, UniversCiv has done a terrible job here. Their plan of racing out to three cities with one worker has left them economically crippled. If what I'm suggesting is true, it just took them 11 turns to research Mining tech. We researched Mysticism, a tech with identical cost, in a mere 3 turns. Ouch! But makes perfect sense, for a team with virtually no improved tiles and cities of pop 3, 2, 1 paying the huge maintenance costs on this map. Three cities for us will equal 7gpt in upkeep. They were probably only getting ~15 total commerce, which would mean 8 beakers/turn, which means... 11 turns for Mining tech (90 beaker cost). Yeah, sounds about right.

CivFanatics got a substantial Food increase last turn (no Production increase), either 3 or 4 Food. Since they did not grow last turn, this looks like it came from a tile getting improved. I will guess that they probably also settled a city at a similar food resource + gold location, and finally improved their food resource. If that's true, then we've been running rings around CFC's early management. We settled Mansa's Muse on T34, had the corn farmed on T36, and hit size 2 on T38. I'm suggesting that CFC likely settled their city T35, and didn't manage to get their food resource improved until T44. This fits very closely with the Demos numbers we were tracking (their second city was working a 2/1 tile for many turns on end) and their overall strategy (settler before second worker in capital). So CFC is just now getting their second city improved... only we're chopping a forest into our third city on the first turn of its existence, and will have two incredibly strong tiles (6/0 pigs and 1/5 copper) improved by the third turn after its creation.

In other words, the numbers suggest that we're outplaying them by a considerable margin.

[novice]

Indeed, things are looking good.

Just a note:

only we're chopping a forest into our third city on the first turn of its existence, and will have two incredibly strong tiles (6/0 pigs and 1/5 copper) improved by the third turn after its creation.

In the latest micro plan, we're improving copper on the second turn, finishing the pasture on the third turn, and finishing the chop on the fourth turn of the city's existence.