WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Meiz]

I like what Meiz did with his case on me.

That's a weird stance

Well, yesterday was quite intense and I feel if there was any saving attempts for wolves, it would have to be on Azza. Difference between Selrahc and Azza? Selrahc's play put him in great risk (he seemed more interested in chasing his suspects than saving his own neck), while Azza kept his vote on me the whole time. Who could have blamed Selrahc on voting me or Tas to save himself? Would have been an easy vote for a wolf.

To me it was obvious that Ichabod wanted to push Tasunke train to get votes distributed and me hanged. It wouldn't matter if me or Tas died, but it did put Azza out of harms way. So my view for Ichabod depends a lot on Azza's alignment. If Azza is innocent as well, the vote swappings in the end were unnecessary for wolves. Reference to Lewwyn's analysis, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=2995

I agree with Lewwyn that Ichabod's arguments are not fairly made and seem to be colored heavily by his impression. "Meiz has only followed novice as far as I remember", "Is only giving villager tells" etc. Same thing with his case against Lewwyn, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=3016
I'm really unsure if it's because of his laid back attitude ("I don't care, playing my way" - mode), or if the idea is to force impressions to build his cases.

I know there's rarely evidence from wolves (mostly the votings when wolf is in danger) so lack of actions is good accusation. But I don't think his accusations are fairly judged so far. Basically agree with this and I've felt the same:

See again. You keep doing this Ichabod. You keep saying I haven't done things when I have, and that I have done things that I haven't. I can't tell if it's you misunterstanding or misremembering or being a lazy wolf. Problem for me is you've been doing this twisting thing since Day 2. You did it then and then when I came back to you on Day 5 you did it again. Now you're doing it here. I understand this game is huge and things can get (we've topped 3k posts in this thread now) but I keep feeling like you're twisting arguments to suit your needs.

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Lewwyn, what exactly makes you think waterbat is obviosu villager? Some concrete examples?

But he didn't really post it in a setting asking for village cred - he didn't go "guys, let's not lynch Tasunke, he's clearly innocent". He just referred to it in passing while explaining his suspects, saying he had considered voting Tasunke until he read that post. I think if a wolf is going to point out that town tell on Tasunke he'll do it a bit louder and more noticeable.

Here's the post, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=2550
Tasunke was not being lynched. Wolves will defend villagers, I'm not sure if they need to make a big number out of it, especially if the player isn't in danger. The idea might simply be to get on the good side of that villager.

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Interestingly waterbat votes Azza and vice versa. I didn't like Azza's case against me. "bad voting record" (how can he know that with Pind's and Jkaen's alignments still unknown) + post restriction, especially if wolves plan is to use pr's for mislynches. So partly suspicious of Ichabod for the same reason now. I also agree that Azza's reasons for suspecting waterbat (reveal power roles) seems forced accusation, same as I felt on his vote against me. My reviewing of waterbat made me see that I can't give him the village lean for Mattimeo's lynch. It's not evidence that he is a wolf because of those votes only. Seeing as they now attack each other, I'm more confident in Azza's guilt.

[Azza]

1) Original thought:
D1 I vocally defended thestick and almost managed to sway opinion, going after Mattimeo and Bigger instead. If your statement was correct, I would have gone with the herd. I found it difficult to believe that we'd landslide lynch a wolf on day 1, and I was wrong. It later turned out he was bussed (as evidenced by Mattimeo's vote on him).
D2 I flail around a bit most of the day (mostly because of having to address your accusation that I defended a wolf so I must be a wolf) and end up arguing for Sareln's innocence on basis of bandwagon movements.
D3 I spend most day trying to save myself (and being absent). I also argue for Merovech's guilt, mainly on basis of a very dismissive defense against accusations.

Which days am I contributing no original thought? Cross reference with your own contributions those 3 days.

The majority of the time, you were just going with whatever novice was going with. You're able to find counterexamples because you've posted a hell of a lot. I didn't literally mean you never thought of your own position to take, but the vast majority of the time you let someone else do the thinking for you.

2) Latching on and not letting go:
You have defended yourself poorly and dismissively. Your favourite argument is "I shouldn't hang because I'm not scum". You have lurked outrageously and denied that you were lurking. You twist words, as evidenced by your accusation of waterbat above. You could have easily stated your disagreement with him on basis of what he actually wrote, yet you choose to turn it up a notch in order to make him seem strongly anti-town. Yet on the days when no traction for your lynch was obtained, I let go of it and looked elsewhere.

You try to change the facts to match your arguments. I can definitely vote for someone else today (Molach mainly, I also like Lewwyn's case on Ichabod), but you've done a good job of drawing attention to yourself again.

Oh well, lynch me then. But out of curiosity, how certain are you that I'm scum? 10%? 40% 100%?

[Azza]

That's a weird stance

Well, yesterday was quite intense and I feel if there was any saving attempts for wolves, it would have to be on Azza. Difference between Selrahc and Azza? Selrahc's play put him in great risk (he seemed more interested in chasing his suspects than saving his own neck), while Azza kept his vote on me the whole time. Who could have blamed Selrahc on voting me or Tas to save himself? Would have been an easy vote for a wolf.<snip>

Before I go, the deadline falls at 7am for me. Makes it very hard to change votes when you're sleeping.

[Catwalk]

The majority of the time, you were just going with whatever novice was going with. You're able to find counterexamples because you've posted a hell of a lot. I didn't literally mean you never thought of your own position to take, but the vast majority of the time you let someone else do the thinking for you.

But this isn't even true either. Remember how people started getting suspicious of me because I wasn't simply following novice around? novice even said so himself, asking specifically why I didn't follow his vote on Selrahc when I'd done so the rest of the day. Your claim is factually incorrect.

Oh well, lynch me then. But out of curiosity, how certain are you that I'm scum? 10%? 40% 100%?

Back to your favourite non-defense, I see. I would say around 50%. Assuming there are 4 wolves alive out of 13 players, a random guess will give me a 33% chance. I don't really have anyone in my village camp anymore, so it's hard to raise it much higher due to elimination. Why do percentages matter, though? I haven't found a smoking gun on you (yet), if that's what you're asking. It's the nature of the game to pursue suspicions in the absence of smoking guns, and I think there's a lot pointing in your direction:

1) Strong early reluctance by others to discuss suspicions of you.
2) Your accusatory style (bending facts to match your argument), suggesting that you care more about getting an alibi and getting a non-wolf to hang. I don't see you seriously investigating people's guilt, same with me on D2. I gave multiple explanations for my thestick vote, you showed no interest in listening to it. As villager, I would assume you'd be more interested in investigating your suspicion against me rather than simply repeating it ad nauseam.
3) Your habit of posting safe votes.
4) Your non-defense when confronted with heavy accusations.

I do somewhat agree with you that Meiz' last argument you was not relevant, I acknowledge that you can't be present at lynch deadlines. However, he is making a relevant argument that Selrahc did seem to make an active effort to hunt scum, reads pro-town to me as well.

[Molach]

Good morning crew.

First things first. Have had a little problem getting into this game. Been thinking about what is so different about this from the last one, WW15 where I posted a lot more. Well, I had the molach files to mess around with, and felt I could in general say more silly things then and see what responses I drew.

And then I had to keep ahead of the lynch for being a drone.

This game I lay back a bit at the start, 26 posters and heavy nighttime posting was not really fun (next time perhaps no talking at night, need the time off). And getting no votes at all so far I got lazy, rather playing FTL and Duris MUD and WoT (not Wall of Texts...) and just laying back and giving what I thought was the best vote, free from hotheadedness and vengeance. I'm following the thread pretty well by phone, but hard to go back and forth and check posts and make the coherent multi-quote posts that brings forward new evidence from that. I did read and reread and make a case for qgqqqqq which i thought was well thought out and with solid base in posting history and 'tone' of posts, and that worked out...not too good.

So for who to vote. I understand that people are a bit suspicious of bussing attempts after it was a heavy wolf-tactic in WW14, but remember we (wolves) won by a coinflip in the end, so not sure it is such a good tactic after all. Flawless victories happen because when there are no known scum there is never anything concrete to go on. Thestick lynch and Mattimeo lynch are to me the important ones, I think there is mafia who did not vote for his gang those days. So lynching one of Gaspar, Jkaen, Lewwyn or Selrahc makes all the sense in the world to me.

I wonder if the 'lynch for information' -crowd are steering of voting Selrahc because 'it will tell us nothing' when he flips? If he flips wolf that should be good in itself, and I say it gives information:


Tasunkelynch: 10 minutes before lynch there were 5 people on Selrahc: Waterbat, Molach, Jkaen, Pindicator, Meiz. It was tied 5-5 with Meiz.

Then Tasunke wagon forms and pindicator goes there, Meiz then votes Azza and Waterbat votes Tasunke.

Rowainlynch: BW forms earlier, votes went: Molach (all day) - Novice - Tasunke - Pindicator - Meiz. Then dissolves with novice voting Tasunke, switches to Ichabod who had votes at the time, Pindicator voting Gaspar (Novice and Pindicator then goes to Rowain), Meiz voting Rowain.

So not suggesting we lynch 'for info', that always seemed a bit wasteful of villager resources, but pointing out that lynch + flip will indeed tell us a great deal and point us in the right direction for next lynch. Going for the most likely mafia is what we always should do, at this point in the game it will tell us enough regardless.

Oh and Selrahc

Just because I'm stubborn doesn't mean I'm not right.

[Meiz]

Before I go, the deadline falls at 7am for me. Makes it very hard to change votes when you're sleeping.

Sorry, did not realize that.

[Meiz]

Interesting post from Azza, after making the strange vote for Injera, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=2701
"I don't want a massive bandwagon to form on Ichabod similar to the Sareln one."

Catwalk asks why he thinks Ichabod innocent, and response, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=2705
"It's not that I think he's innocent, it's that I'm not convinced he's scummy enough to warrant a massive bandwagon on him from the start of the day."

The second part is a bit towned down, but the first one is really strong statement. And I do wonder if wolf would make that comment for a fellow wolf.

I'm also starting to second-guess myself and I wonder that wolf-Ichabod could create cases with better "evidence". At least my assumption is that wolves probably wouldn't create cases that are not factually correct...

[Catwalk]

I think that's a dangerous assumption to make. While a good/active wolf would strive to be factually correct, a lazy/less active wolf is mainly interested in throwing dirt and hoping some of it will stick. And I certainly wouldn't go so far as to take non-factuality as a town tell

[Meiz]

Wolf-Ichabod is team player above all, not the lazy-wolf category. He'd know it would be called out. So I agree it's not a general wolf/villager tell, but in his case I'm starting to lean back towards villager (there are other factors for that as well). For example that both Azza and Ichabod used same pr argument to attack me. I don't think there would have been that pressing need to get rid of me, to collaborate like that.

[Catwalk]

Which Ichabod case are you specifically referring to?