[SPOILERS] Novice's nominal nonchalance

[Bigger]

I dunno that it needs to be on oil does it? It's just put there in the world-builder.

well I hadn't thought of that. Does it do anything at all if there's no oil in that spot?

[novice]

well I hadn't thought of that. Does it do anything at all if there's no oil in that spot?

I don't think so. I think I can pillage it for gold, I haven't tested how much it will yield. There are a lot of city ruins around, they don't yield any gold when pillaged.

There also a well on the plains tile 2W of the southernmost offshore platform.

Anyway, news of the turn:



It would appear east is the direction to settle if you want the Oracle. But it also looks like a great place to chop out MoM.

The only visible copper is located in a craptastic spot to our northwest.



I think I'll go for the three-food spot and hope to found Polytheism. Serdoa has a one-turn lead in tech so he knows he can get to Meditation first. Therefore I'm hoping he goes to Priesthood through Meditation.

I'm not sure yet though.

[novice]

I only just noticed that settling on the sugar would make a decent city.

Pling, the million dollar question now is whether or not Serdoa is researching Mysticism or Pottery. If he's getting Pottery first, we can delay that to ensure we get a religion.

[pling]

Nothing happened to anyone except some tile re-orgs last turn. Serdoa's score went up by 15 and I'm pretty sure that's his points for land even tho I expected them next turn - I think I know why, I think it's that they get added on at the actual turn flip ie the start of your T20. I'll figure that out with the next batch

Summary at our T20 (their T19):

Seven
Cities: 1 @ size 3
Army: 1 Warrior
Workforce: 1 Worker
Techs: Agri, Mining, Myst, Animal Husbandry
Met: no-one?

Nicolae
Cities: 1 @ size 2
Army: 1 Warrior
Workforce: 1 Worker
Techs: Agri, Wheel, Animal Husbandry, Mining
Met: Serdoa

mackoti
Cities: 1 @ size 4
Army: 2 Quechua
Workforce: 1 worker
Techs: Agri, Myst, Mining, Wheel

Serdoa
Cities: 1 @ size 4
Army: 1 Warrior
Workforce: 1 worker
Techs: Agri, AH, Wheel, Mining, BW
Met: Nicolae

(I'll get to your question next post, my answer is still evolving ...)

[pling]

Pling, the million dollar question now is whether or not Serdoa is researching Mysticism or Pottery. If he's getting Pottery first, we can delay that to ensure we get a religion.

Yeah, that's a good question! And I've been running it round in my brain & on "paper" (actually a text file) last night & since I got up this morning. I'm going to write out the whole thought process because if nothing else it'll make it easier for me to figure out how & if I need to change my mind later.

It hinges round if I can assign tiles and GNPs to everyone for the last couple of turns, and Mackoti rather inconveniently grew & got a new tech at the same time as Serdoa got his new tech. Oh and Seven grew that turn, too, just for added complication.

Known things:

Their T18:

Serdoa got BW (is size 4)
Seven grew (to size 3)
Mackoti grew & got Wheel (to size 4)
Nicolae is size 2 and did nothing

GNPs as seen our T19: 26, 22 or 23, 21, 20
Food: 18, 13, 13, 12
Prod: 6, 3, 3, 2


Their T19:

Nobody changed

GNPs as seen our T20: 25, 24, 22 or 23, 21
Food: 17, 16, 13, 13
Prod: 6, 3, 2, 2

Base assumptions: No-one pre-selected a tech if they just got one (I changed my mind on this later). If you grow then the governor picks something it deems sensible for your new tile and you change it next turn.

Some deductions: I reckon Nicolae didn't change a thing between the two turns, so doesn't have the GNP of 26. That's an impossible GNP to make with even a Fin civ at size 4 if they're not researching a tech with a pre-req (need too much commerce off tiles), so I'm counting out Serdoa & Mackoti. So the GNP of 26 is Seven.

I also think Nicolae has the GNP of 21, made up from 2 commerce from tiles and a pre-req bonus and a known civ bonus; but I'm not 100% sure of that. To get enough food at size 2 to be at or above the lowest rival food then Nicolae must be working improved corn & improved sheep.

One of the two size 4s has 18 food, one of the two size 4s has 6 prod, not the same one coz I'm damned if I can make that work with the available tiles. I'm fairly sure Serdoa has farmed the corn & pastured the sheep coz on his first turn at size 4 he had 17 food and the easiest way to make that is with both of those improved plus working the oasis & the plains cottage (governor chosen).

Tile assignments I eventually chose:

Their T18:

• Seven: Oasis (3/0/3), Plains Cottage (1/1/3) chosen by governor, Farmed Corn (6/0/1) = GNP 26 (tech w/ pre-req), food 12, prod 3
  
• Nicolae: Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Pastured Sheep (5/0/1) = GNP 21 (BW, pre-req + met Serdoa), food 13, prod 2
  
• Mackoti: River Grass (2/0/1), Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Mined PH (0/4/0), Oasis (3/0/2) = GNP 22 (tech w/ pre-req PRECHOSEN), food 13, prod 6
  
• Serdoa: Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Pastured Sheep (5/0/1), Grass Forest (2/1/0), Oasis (3/0/2) = GNP20 (no tech selected), food 18, prod 3

Their T19:

• Seven: Oasis (3/0/3), Pastured Sheep (5/0/1), Farmed Corn (6/0/1) = GNP 24 (tech w/ pre-req), food 16, prod 2
  
• Nicolae: Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Pastured Sheep (5/0/1) = GNP 21 (BW, pre-req + met Serdoa), food 13, prod 2 (no changes)
  
• Mackoti: River Grass (2/0/1), Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Mined PH (0/4/0), Oasis (3/0/2) = GNP 22 (tech w/ pre-req), food 13, prod 6 (no changes)
  
• Serdoa: Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Pastured Sheep (5/0/1), Plains Cottage (1/1/2), Oasis (3/0/2) = GNP25 (tech w/ pre-req), food 17, prod 3

So in that case the answer is I think Serdoa is researching a tech with a pre-req, thus not Myst.

BUT: This hinges round Mackoti (or rather his replacement) having mined a plains hill instead of pasturing his sheep, and also having pre-selected his tech before finishing researching Wheel. The latter just seems non-standard but no good reason not to if you're sure what you're doing next. My guess would be he's researching Pottery if that's the case. But mining a PH instead of getting more food seems really odd to me, so I don't like that that's a necessary part of my conclusion I'm going to keep thinking.

----

Re-reading prior to posting and more thoughts:

If Mackoti pre-selected a tech, then why not Bronze Working? If so, and if he has met Serdoa and has 6 commerce from tiles then he could have the GNP of 26. To do so he'd have to be working 6/0/1, 5/0/1, 3/0/2, 1/1/2 to get enough commerce, with 17 food and 3 production which doesn't work, or 6/0/1, 0/2/1, 3/0/2, 1/1/2 with 12 food & 5 production which also doesn't work. I think this can't work out.

Which leaves me still with the above being the only scheme that works. I'll keep thinking over the day. What I need to do is force Serdoa's GNP to a non-pre-req one and see if I can make the rest of the numbers fit. So far I haven't got a scheme that works tho.

[pling]

OK, I think I'm as confident as I can be that Serdoa is researching a tech with a pre-requisite, and thus it must be Pottery not Mysticism.

I pulled the numbers apart a different way and put them back together again and still came out with that conclusion. I also came up with a more sensible set of tiles for mackoti to be working: Farmed Corn (6/0/1), Pastured Sheep (5/0/1), Plains Hill (0/2/0), Grassland Hill with improvement which I've forgotten what it is (0/2/1). That's 13 food, 6 hammers (including city tile) and 3c from tiles. If he is researching Bronze Working and has met Serdoa then he'll have a GNP of 22 from that combination. Given Serdoa met Nicolae T9 then meeting a second civ T18 or before sounds possible.

(The doubts I'm left with are about whether I've got too married to some initial assumptions so have ignored some other solution, but I have tried two different paths and got the same answers out twice.)

[novice]

Great work, Pling! I hope you're right and we can grab a religion.

Presumably Pottery should take longer than Mysticism to research so we might get confirmation in a few turns.

[novice]

[pling]

Presumably Pottery should take longer than Mysticism to research so we might get confirmation in a few turns.

Yeah, didn't have time to run the sanity check numbers before I went out this afternoon. I think the slowest he can research Myst (given the lowest GNP available this turn) would have it hit on his T21 ie we'd see it T22. If I'm right and he's got a GNP of 25 & is researching Pottery then I think he'll get it T22 and we'll see it T23. Not a lot in it, but I don't think he can speed up Pottery research enough to make it a turn earlier so it should be clear.

[pling]

Seven grew his cap to 4, Nicolae grew his cap to 3.

------

Edit to avoid regoarrarring up the thread:

I'm rather more unsure about my work earlier today now Sanity check numbers remain accurate though, the latest Serdoa can get Myst shows up for us next turn, the earliest he can get Pottery is the turn after.

All size 4 civs are working 6/0/1, 5/0/1, 3/0/2or3, 1/1/2or3 for 17 food and 3 production (and 6 or 8 commerce from tiles depending if Fin). Nicolae is working 6/0/1, 5/0/1, 1/1/3 for 14 food and 3 production (and 5 commerce from tiles).

Available GNPs are 28, 25, 24 and 22.

Seven must have the GNP of 28, the only way to make this is to have 8 commerce from tiles, plus research a tech with a pre-req, plus have met someone with that tech. So that's him having met Serdoa (this turn) and researching BW.

Nicolae has 5 commerce on tiles, and if he's researching BW like I'm pretty sure he was last turn then he's got a GNP of 24.

That leaves 22 and 25 left over for Serdoa and mackoti, who currently have exactly the same tile configuration. Therefore one of them is researching a tech with a pre-req and one is not.

For me to have been right earlier then mackoti has changed both his tile configuration and his tech this turn. His new tech would have to be fishing or hunting. Alternatively everything I said earlier today was rubbish and Serdoa has had the GNP of 22 all along and is researching a tech without a pre-req. It could also be Fishing or Hunting not Myst, but there's no way to distinguish Myst & Fishing (could finish same turn, no soldiers).