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Ok, so my working theory - scum are more likely to push "lynchbait" and are unlikely to defend them. I've ignored the actions of dead players by and large except as context. More specifically, I've broken down the actions toward them like so:
- Offensive Crusade
- Driving the bus
- Passive attack
- Piggyback
- Passive defense
- Active defense
- Defensive Crusade
The theory being that scum are far more likely to land in one of the three middle categories on these type players, because they want them to remain candidates, I believe passive attacks are by far the most likely.
Lynchbait case #1: Merovech, Day 3.
uberfish is driving the bus.
Passive attacks followed by Catwalk and especially Waterbat
After this, he slips out of the conversation.
Catwalk brings the conversation back around to him here and here and here.
Passive defense by TT
Passive defense by Gaspar
A pair of passive defenses by Ichabod here and here
Passive attack by Catwalk here.
Passive attack by Gaspar
Passive attack by novice
Merovech makes his suicide role claim at this point
novice switches to driving the bus
Waterbat and Meiz piggyback after this.
Votes pile, Merovech is lynched, gg.
Analysis:
I think we have to ignore everything after the horrendous claim, other than novice getting slight village credit for aggressive play. Other than that, Catwalk's collection of weak attacks amounts to an active attack and probably slight village credit. Ichabod's passive defenses are more ignoring. I probably look scummiest here, though I think mostly given the circumstances here this lynch was just noise.
I'll post analysis of the pushes on Qgqqqqq on Day 4 later.
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Lynchbait case #2, Qgqqqqq:
Passive attack by Lewwyn
Passive attack by Pindicator
Injera reveals his powerrole.
Molach drives the bus here
Passive attack by Pindicator
Passive attack by Selrahc
Passive attack by Pindicator
Piggyback by novice
Piggyback by Catwalk
Passive attack - Pindicator
Passive defense - Meiz
Passive attack - Gaspar
Piggyback - Waterbat
Passive defense - Ichabod
Driving the bus - Catwalk
Passive attack - Pindicator
Right around here Ichabod and TT start getting warm to the idea of a Mattimeo lynch.
Passive defense - TT
Passive defense - Ichabod
Driving the bus - Pindicator
Driving the bus - Pindicator
Qgqqqqq role reveals.
Next few posts are "figuring it out."
Passive attack - Meiz
Driving the bus - Selrahc
Offensive Crusade - Waterbat
Driving the bus - Ichabod
Passive attack - Jkaen
Driving the bus - novice
Piggyback - Pindicator
Offensive Crusade - TT
Passive attack - Catwalk
Passive attack - Waterbat
Around here, the whole Tracker/Follower/Watcher/Voyeur etc nonsense gets sorted out, and the worm finally turns fully to Mattimeo.
Driving the bus - TT
Driving the bus - TT
Active defense - novice
Analysis:
Jesus, this day was as much of a clusterfuck on reread as it was the first time around. Interestingly, Qgqqqqq got very little defense and I had forgotten the extent to which he was a landslide choice before the Mattimeo wagon fully formed. To me, the most suspicious parts here are the early passive attack by Lewwyn, before all the roleclaim nonsense - he's usually in tune to lynchbait and Pindicator, who had piled on a bunch of passive nothing on Qg earlier, then suddenly goes very aggressive right around the time of the TT/Ichabod Mattimeo discussion. That combination seemed really, really scummy in hindsight.
Non-helping us catch scum observations: TT might actually have a paranoia disorder, we should probably stop the game and get him some help. Qgqqqqq's defense was terrible.
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I had gotten through Merovech and most of Qg previously. Finished Qg tonight. I'll work on Tasunke and get it out tomorrow.
Sorry for such fanfare about not that much, but the main impact of this is helping me coalesce some thoughts. If that helps everyone else, all the better, but its been good for me to read some stuff in a different context.
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Goddamn it.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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I've been thinking of Ichabod and Azza as a scum pair since the Tasunke lynch. I believed Ichabod to be scum before that so Azza's flip doesn't clear him IMO.
I also still believe Waterbat is innocent and I'm happy he escaped the noose yesterday. Azza being lynched is a good thing in that it clears the air a bit. Catwalk and I were both stuck on him. I think its time to look at alternatives.
Just for reference my top villagers are
novice
TT
waterbat
Meiz
My top three wolf suspects at this point are:
Ichabod
Selrahc
Pindicator
Gaspar and jkaen are just after them. I haven't seen Gaspar on as much and I can't tell if it is because he's actually busy or if he's gone into wolf lurk mode. I see he's posting stuff about his lynchbait stuff now, but maybe only because he's been forced to by promises he made earlier? I want to see how he votes in the next day. And Jkaen...
My day with pindicator was a bit weird. He got after me for putting him on my suspect list, but was wrong when he did so, but then he went from voting Waterbat to vigorously protecting him and helping me lynch Azza. So on the day its confusing for me. Technically Pindi is in my 3rd wolf slot, but that's pretty malleable with Gaspar and Jkaen.
Selrahc has been basically gone for two/thirds of the game. Almost policy lynched multiple times. I still don't feel like he's contributing a ton even now. Yes, Molach started by voting for him Day 6 and it seems like he did it without pressure, but Molach went down easy like the wolves didn't really try to stop it so they must have thought he was dead anyway, and if they did then they knew any target Molach initiated a vote for wouldn't really gain steam. I know some are giving Selrahc a village lean based on Molach, but I'm not buying that right now.
Ichabod... still reading the twisty scum to me. And I think he let himself fall into the waterbat lynch.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Can we please do more of the actual talking, discussing and vote wrangling earlier in the 48 hours? I felt like no one really had any urgency until we got down to the last 2-3 hours.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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So here's something that has been bothering me since end of last night, and one of the reasons I'm particularly wary of Selrahc here.
Selrahc Wrote:I'm worried the wolves are thinking zugzwang. By killing somebody, they remove a potential suspect but don't lower the mislynch count. So it makes their position better to not kill somebody...
It's alarming. That kind of move is one I'd expect right at the endgame, and I was hoping we have at least one more available mislynch.
Hopefully though, there is a more benign explanation.
There are a couple things about this statement that rang bells for me. Wolves, I believe, always want their kill to succeed. You never know what's going to happen down the line so not killing someone might come back to bite you in the butt. If I'm a wolf I want to make sure I kill every night. I have no idea if there is a protective role out there, limited in some fashion or not, and I sincerely don't want anyone to draw it out if there is such a role.
But this post does two things. It hints at a more "benign explanation" ie: a power role, but also it make any baner who might have been successful think that they might not have actually been successful. It's the kind of a mind game I see wolf-Selrahc trying to play to make up for a missed kill. If the protective role is some kind of village roleblocker, maybe Selrahc is attempting to convince said person that they didn't roleblock a killing wolf when they actually did. (Again any power roles please do not reveal unless super necessary)
I'm suspicious, I was suspicious yesterday and if I had been online at the end of the day when people ACTUALLY TALKED I might have been amenable to a Selrahc lynch. I probably would still have wanted to lynch Azza, but if I had to give up on Azza to save waterbat and compromise on Selrahc then I think I likely would have done that, maybe. Eh. Maybe not. Whatever, point is I find Selrahc suspicious now.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Player list: (in order of signup)
11 players left, at least 3 are wolves.
novice: the Secretary
Meiz: the Firefighter
Waterbat: the Clergy
Pindicator: the Lawyer
Ichabod: the Pizza Delivery Boy
Lewwyn: the Garbage collector
Catwalk: the Bureaucrat
Gaspar: the Carpenter
Jkaen: the Olive Picker
Selrahc: the Knife smith
Twinkletoes89: the Barber
Dead people:
[SIZE="3"]DAY ONE[/SIZE]
thestick - 9 - zakalwe, novice, Bigger, tasunke, Mattimeo, Arromir, Serdoa, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Bigger - 8 - Rowain, Lewwyn, Injera, Jkaen, Sareln, Merovech, uberfish, Catwalk
Injera - 2 - Gaspar, Waterbat
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
uberfish - 1 - Qgqqqqq
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
Jkaen - 1 - Meiz
Merovech - 1 - Pindicator
Players not voting: Ichabod, thestick
Zakalwe was night-killed. novice was post restricted. Qqqqq tracked Mattimeo with no result. Injera followed Pindicator with no result.
[SIZE="3"]DAY TWO[/SIZE]
Sareln - 8 - Mattimeo, Arromir, tasunke, Merovech, Molach, Pindicator, Twinkletoes89, Serdoa
Pindicator - 7 - Rowain, Sareln, Ichabod, uberfish, novice, Meiz, Catwalk
Ichabod - 5 - Lewwyn, Injera, Gaspar, Qgqqqqq, Jkaen
uberfish - 3 - Azza, Bigger, Waterbat
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Selrahc
Serdoa was night-killed. Bigger suicided. Meiz was post restricted. Qqqqq tracked novice with no result. Injera followed Mattimeo with no result.
[SIZE="3"]DAY THREE[/SIZE]
Merovech - 9 - uberfish, Catwalk, Waterbat, Mattimeo, novice, Meiz, Rowain, Gaspar, Azza
Catwalk - 7 - Lewwyn, Pindicator, Qgqqqqq, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod, Merovech, Injera
Rowain - 1 - tasunke
Selrahc - 1 - Jkaen
Players not voting: Arromir, Molach, Selrahc
Uberfish was night-killed. Qqqqq tracked Injera visiting Catwalk. Injera followed Catwalk with no result.
[SIZE="3"]DAY FOUR[/SIZE]
Mattimeo - 8 - novice, Waterbat, Catwalk, Meiz, Ichabod, Rowain, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Qgqqqqq - 5 - Selrahc, tasunke, Gaspar, Jkaen, Mattimeo
Injera - 2 - Qgqqqqq, Pindicator
Catwalk - 2 - Injera, Azza
Selrahc - 1 - Lewwyn
Arromir was mod-killed for inactivity.
Qqqqq was night-killed. Injera followed Azza with no result.
[SIZE="3"]DAY FIVE[/SIZE]
Rowain - 8 - Pindicator, novice, Selrahc, Twinkletoes89, Injera, Gaspar, Catwalk, Waterbat
Pindicator - 4 - Jkaen, Azza, Ichabod, Meiz
Ichabod - 2 - Lewwyn, Rowain
Selrahc - 2 - Molach, tasunke
Rowain was lynched, but didn't die until the end of night 5.
Rowain or noone was night-killed. Injera followed Lewwyn with no result.
[SIZE="3"]DAY SIX[/SIZE]
Meiz - 5 - Azza, tasunke, Gaspar, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod
tasunke - 5 - Pindicator, Selrahc, Injera, Waterbat, Catwalk
Azza - 3 - Lewwyn, Meiz, novice
Selrahc - 2 - Molach, Jkaen
As mayor, novice chose to lynch Tasunke.
Injera was night-killed.
[SIZE="3"]DAY SEVEN[/SIZE]
Molach - 6 - novice, Lewwyn, Waterbat, Azza, Gaspar, Pindicator
Azza - 4 - Meiz, Catwalk, Molach, Ichabod
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
novice - 1 - Jkaen
Meiz - 1 - Twinkletoes89
Noone was nightkilled.
[SIZE="3"]DAY EIGHT[/SIZE]
Azza - 6 - Lewwyn, Catwalk, Waterbat, Gaspar, Pindicator, novice
Waterbat - 4 - Meiz, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod, Azza
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
Selrahc - 1 - Jkaen
I have to run.
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Thanks, was just about to collect that info.
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