[spoilers] Pindicator and Regoarrarr - Bismark of Ethiopia

[T-hawk]

The formula is 0.75 * opponent's EP + 75, all multiplied by the overall cost modifier. So for you to see Krill's research, you need (1099 * .75 + 75) * 125% and there's your 448. Krill's cost modifier for you should be 1/125% = 80%. So he needs (0.75 * 797 + 75) * .8 = 538 and he is well over that.

[regoarrarr]

The formula is 0.75 * opponent's EP + 75, all multiplied by the overall cost modifier. So for you to see Krill's research, you need (1099 * .75 + 75) * 125% and there's your 448. Krill's cost modifier for you is probably 1/125% = 80%. So he needs (0.75 * 797 + 75) * .8 = 538 and he is well over that.

Nice. I was just typing up the same response. According to this gem of a thread (our Espionage thread in the Apolyton demogame), it's

.75 * (their EP on us + 100).

But your numbers work out correctly (though it's 1123 for us to see his research, not 448 - just a typo from your reading of my post)

But the short answer is that Krill can see our research and probably has been able to for quite some time.

An interesting exercise at some point might be to see who can see who's research...

[T-hawk]

You can factor the terms either way and it's the same. X * .75 + 75 == (X + 100) * .75.

Oops, the 448 was to see Krill's demographics, not research. (1099 * .3 + 30) * 125% = 448, give or take a bit of roundoff artifacting.

[pindicator]

Oh and just one more thing

We need to figure out a way to 3t the Kremlin while NOT being in Organized Religion (since ideally we could swap to Pacifism at the beginning of the GA)

Done.

Code:

                        Farm1   Farm2   Farm3   notes              base hpt     modifier
229    100/110      ->   156/110    36o            1t ws   1t ws           worker to spice    45           +25%
230     0/110     ->   106/110                 2t ws   ws-fin                    49       +25%
231     106/110   ->   177/110      53o        ws-fin    -     2t ws   steal ws from WW   57        +25%  

START GOLDEN AGE; REVOLT TO SP

232     0/800     ->   370/800                    ws fin               77           +185%
233   370/800     ->   589/800                                   77        +185%
234   589/800     ->   808/800                                   77           +185%
Short version: use our 4 workers near Nat X to turn its 3 farms into workshops. Take the WS tile from WW on turn 231.  Start golden age on t232 and revolt into SP. Build Rifles until then.

On t231 we need to steal the workshop tile from Wayne's World. [strike]We probably can get away with doing this on t232 instead but I'd rather we hedge our bets.[/strike] Edit: I gave us 1 base hpt too much in my original calculations so we do actually need to take that ws from WW next turn. Taking it this turn will cause us to finish the rifle, also a bad thing. Everything else stays the same

[regoarrarr]

Well since you were so quick on that one, the next plan is how to maximize our GP generation in the Golden Age. Can we get 2 GPs out? One from Guido Sarducci next and then another one out of Church Lady?

This is our 800GPP person, so the next 2 need 900 and 1000. If we're in Caste + Pacifism + GA, in Guido that means we need 300 raw GPP over 8 turns, which means 12-13 Great People / turn, which is probably (close) to doable with a death camp. Then we push for Church Lady to churn out the 1000 GPP by also running a ton of GPs in Caste + Pacifism + GA + National Epic.

I think that we are saving these GPs for the 3-man golden age, no? That would probably be our last one, since the next 4 would cost 1400, 1600, 1800 and 2000 which seems like a lot.

As I read the tea leaves, this is what folks will bulb
Prophet: Nothing
Scientist: Physics then Biology
Artist: Music, (Radio), (Democracy), Military Tradition
Merchant: Constitution, Corporation, Steam Power
Engineer: (Assembly Line), Steam Power, Steel

[regoarrarr]

Let's check the facts - what we know about Krill's GNP and tech numbers over the past few turns
=============================
T226 (1580AD): Krill has 8006g and has turned on science
T227 (1585): Krill gets Liberalism at the end of the turn, and has 7114g (-892gpt). His GNP is 1805 (working on Sci Meth). We trade for Liberalism and we're at 7653/7728 on Sci Meth. Our GNP is 1817, at 100% science making 1181bpt and -136gpt.

He then kicks off his GA, revolts to Environmentalism, and his GNP jumps to 4308.

T228 (1590): We discover Sci Meth at beginning of the turn
T229 (1595): Krill has Sci Meth and now has 5516g. Our GNP is 1890 and Krill's is 3349

T230 (1600): Current turn. We are showing Communism in 3t.

T231 (1605): Next turn. Log in at the end of turn and swap to Communism in 1t

T232 (1610): We get Communism at the beginning of the turn.

=============================
So that's the facts. Let's see if we can deduce anything about T227. Our GNP was 1817 and making 1181bpt and -136gpt, on a double pre-req tech (Sci Meth).

So GNP is 1181 * 1.4 (no known civ bonus) = 1653. Subtract out our 136gpt expenses yields 1517, meaning that we have 300 culture + espionage, which sounds about right.

Let's say Krill has 500 culture + espionage (it's probably higher). He had 892g of expenses, which meant that his 1805 GNP correlated to 1569bpt at his max science.

I cannot figure out the 4308 GNP, unless it's from the following turn (when we had Sci Meth and he did not). It's post 1735 with your screenshots, and it certainly SEEMS like it's from the end of T227. You did end turn in the next post - is it possible that you took the demogs screenshot after the turn flipped?

If not, then a 4308 GNP corresponds to 3357bpt. Culture and Espionage should be the same even in a golden age - could his bpt really be this high?

On T229, his GNP is "down" to 3349, which corresponds to him moving from the double pre-req tech of Sci Meth to the single pre-req tech of Communism. Using our same assumptions (500 culture + espionage and 892 in expenses), that calculates to 3117bpt. So.... at least that is consistent.

tl;dr - unless I'm really biffing up some of these calculations, I think Krill's going to get Communism at the end of this turn. I bet he gets Physics (first) by the end of his golden age.

[regoarrarr]

But the real question is how is Krill's research 3117 / 3357 bpt. That..... just can't be right, can it?

We were at 1181 pre-Sci Meth, and are now at 1785. So he is tripling our pre-Sci Meth "normal" bpt, and doubling our "put everyone on commerce, run research everywhere and hire scientists" amount.

And that's taking into account that with the UoS he probably had the same amount of monasteries that we had (now expired)

Now, he does
* have Environmentalism
* Slightly more cities than us
* Slightly bigger cities ( more pop) than us
* He's not in Free Religion (still shows a state religion from the s/s)
* is in a golden age.

All of those are factors, and the GA is a huge factor. It just seems like an incredibly huge beaker amount. Environmentalism's gold to specs boost doesn't help him here, though as Pindicator mentioned earlier, it will be huge during a GA (giving 2c on all farms and pastures).

I dunno man...

[pindicator]

So to recap the last few turns:

Krill beat us to Communism by 1 turn
Krill will beat us to the Kremlin by 1 turn

The last one astonished me - Rego scryed which city was building it based off EP totals, and it looks like he had some 79hpt in that city, which is slightly ahead of Nat X's 77hpt we have in a golden age. Even though I knew it was coming it was disappointing to open the save and see this:



At least we have 600g in fail gold for 2-turns worth progress.

Wait, why did we not get 600g??? We only got fail gold for the first turn's progress that we put into the wonder.

Then I looked at Nat X:



That pisses me off. I guess the game resolved Krill's building of the wonder first, and so we got the credit for the 376h we had put in during the first turn. Then it resolved our builds and found Nat X putting 103hpt (77 * 1.35 modifier) into ... nothing. So not only did we get about 200g less in fail gold, we also lost a hammer due to rounding.

I've ducked out, haven't done much more than that with the turn yet. Gotta get some things done before the OSU game in 2 hours.

[regoarrarr]

Buncha crap

[pindicator]

So jumped back in to finish the turn. By the, both our schools won and are still undefeated. How bout that?

Nakor has Steam Power. I'm going to try to get him to trade it, so I offered Scientific Method and 750g.
Scooter doesn't have Communism so I offer to sell that to him for 1558g. No idea what a fair value is, to be honest.
To be honest, I kind of don't want to trade another tech this game, but meh - if we don't then someone else will, and probably for a better deal than what I'm offering.
Asked Commodore for his extra Silver, offering our extra Gems. Also asked to swap world maps with him.

I think I just realized we dont' have any whale sources either. Funny that.

Ended turn and Krill's golden age is over. We are now (barely) #1 in GNP, but Krill still has tops in mfg.