WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[novice]

My one thought from my first read of what I've missed is, did we have two mafia on the block again? With a single mislynch required, why did Lewwyn not hop on Meiz?

Well first of all wolves need two mislynches to win. Second, Lewwyn might have been genuinely busy. Third, if Lewwyn jumped on Meiz he would be cementing a race between himself and Meiz - maybe he didn't fancy his odds. Fourth, Lewwyn's switch alone wouldn't have helped when it was 4.1 on Lewwyn and 3 on Meiz, (and Lewwyn was on Gaspar). He needed someone to switch off him anyway.

I also think Lewwyn is too canny a player to use all four of his charges on villagers. I don't think he would want to clear up to 4 villagers on the advent of his death.

But we're not cleared, at least not due to being post-restricted. What's canny and isn't depends on what works. All the post restricted players have caught heavy suspicion due to it. If a post restriced villager ends up mislynched due to Lewwyn restricting 4 of them, isn't that the canny play?

[pindicator]

Why does zero arguments for my candidate make more sense as a wolf that has lost interest than a villager that has lost interest? Surely as a wolf I would be more engaged into the game?

This has been an odd game, both with the length and with the forum problems in the middle of it. I'm not sure what that would do to a wolf player, but I could see someone losing interest, especially if they didn't feel it was going their way.

Also if you look through even the older WW games, its pretty rare that I am around during lynch times, so me not being around in this game for them in nothing different.

No problem with you not being around at lynch times. My issue is that you are not making compelling cases against any of your targets. You vote and park. Yesterday you voted me without any reasoning, but you weren't just checked out, you were lurking, because you followed along enough to post this midway through the day:

But what actual power does a fake deadline have?

Novice what pulled you away from Meiz and onto his target?

Novice what pulled you away from Meiz and onto his target?

My self-doubt and Waterbat's suspect list.

But isn't that list the same as Gaspars essentially (or is that your point)?
[/quote]


Why are those your only substantial posts during the day? What's going on in that head of yours, Jkaen? Are you trying to clear Meiz or upset that novice has switched over to waterbat?

There's nothing all day about trying to convince people to go after me. There's no asking people for arguments except for when novice switched from Meiz to Waterbat. And after that you go radio silence until the end of the day again.

That is why I suspect you.

[pindicator]

@novice - the thing that stood out to me about waterbat's posts at the deadline, is that he's gotten cold feet before. I had forgotten where, but I found it:

Rowain, I am. reading back through all mattimeo posts cold feeeeeet

That's Day 4, right before we lynched Mattimeo. Which happens to be the last time we lynched a wolf on a close vote.


waterbat / jkaen as our wolf pair?

[pindicator]

Candidate #3 for me is Gaspar. But I don't think it can be a gaspar / jkaen as a pair.

[waterbat]

Ok novice, day 10 looks bad for me - I guess. I was happy with Meiz at that time, but I also wasn't active on the forums first 24 hours of the day. I didn't notice that lewwyn's only contrib was a vote-only post. His ardent defense off me caused be to cut him a large amount of slack. Also as indicated with my response to Gaspar - I trusted catwalk and tt89. Voting with them on Meiz and sticking to it seemed reasonable.

I've been on the fence about pindicator since day 1. I've also found it uncanny reading Gaspar posts, and indeed buddies up with him all game. Not in voting, apparently, but in general feeling about the games.

@pindicator: I thought you comment to lewwyn about finally drawing wolf was so scummy. I was waiting for the comeback, but didn't really perk up when it never game. No spin when I say great job there.

[Twinkletoes89]

If I were to pick my two last suspects for mafia, I would pick Catwalk and Waterbat.

I think catwalk has suddenly gone pretty quiet and 'meek' whereas earlier on he seemed to be much more emphatic and wilfully crusading for his candidates. My two abiding memories of his 'crusades' were to stop thestick from dying and to get Azza lynched. Both of which make him look pretty scummy.

Waterbat, on the other hand, flew under the radar for quite a long time, but now he has appeared and become more vocal his posts have not impressed me in terms of being villagery. They seem to be more consciously misleading than misguided and yesterday really was a high point.

I also (hopefully) feel that we may have killed the 'godfather' of this mafia with the death of Lewwyn and that another strong player like Meiz/Gaspar may be innocent. I am prepared to listen to lynch arguments for them though

[pindicator]

Been going through Lewwyn's posts, althogh I'm hoping Meiz is also doing this becaseu I'm only on night 2 :P

Anyway, something that stood out from day 2 was his talking about Mardoc's Fears (post 801). After posting it, we get this on post 807:

The best part? Bruidane put 2 wolves in his suspect list.

So did he do something similar? That night he posts his list. I bolded lines that talk about players still alive:

-It seems novice is getting a lot of flack but I'm still leaning innocent on him.
-Injera has been, IMO, comeback villager of the game. Welcome back from the wolf den.
-Serdoa has seemed pretty clean to me. Not biting on that last minute vote on Sareln. Been there as a villager, and if I had been awake at the end of the day I might've done the same.
-Another rebounder in Jkaen personally feel that Jkaen has been a lot more clear minded this game. Certainly a departure from last game. I'm hoping its because he feels he did poorly last game and not because he suddenly has a cheat sheet.
-I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement
-Tasunke
-Molach is playing?
-Remember that big opening day post by Waterbat. I haven't seen a continuation of that really. Dunno yet if that's more or less suspicious. But I'm actually thinking it might be less suspicious because a villager would tire of the act... right?
-Do I buy Ichabod's latest defense? He certainly tires me out.
- Catwalk
-We have a pair of excellent lurkers in Selrahc and Arromir, either of whom could be scum, or both. They both remind me significantly of GES in WW3 who would regularly check in simply to say RL was being a pain before disappearing again. These two may have actual RL issues, but so did GES.
-Uber and TT are so at each others throats that I can't tell anything. They both... make a lot of noise.

It looks like he's saying:
* novice is village
* jkaen village but hedging the statement
* undecided on me
* waterbat is unsure but leaning village
* attacking catwalk
* Not accusing TT but not really defending him either

[BRickAstley]

Sorry a bit late, but yeah deadline.

[waterbat]

@pindicator: I was on Mattimeo at the time. Different this time as I was not on lewwyn. That time, I was afraid I started a bad lynch. This time I was afraid I wasn't stopping one. At 4.1 to 3 though, nothing I could do.

If TT and catwalk are to be assumed innocent, I strongly believe we have a wolf on lewwyn. And the only way that really makes sense is if Meiz is mafia also.

I know that this reasoning assumes I'm innocent too, a fact which I can't prove.

If one of TT/catwalk Is mafia, i can maybe believe lewwyn wagon contained no scum.

X-post back to my other post

[waterbat]

That post illegal if I'm dead. Sorry forgot about night deadline.