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WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

hahha nice cross post Brick.
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Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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fake EDIT: A RULE IS A RULE brick
--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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Is noone else getting the feeling that this Jkaen lycnh is much too easy?
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
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@tt, well I am...

Jkaen didn't seem to understand how Matt's power worked (was responding to Ichabods false assumption that it roleblocks). I think this alone gives quite big village lean for him. Then the temp forum meta, I don't believe he didn't even register to the site and let the game stay on old, just to give himself extra credit as a wolf. And wolves would know about the temp forum through quick topic. And everyone just ignores that?

(October 17th, 2012, 16:14)novice Wrote: By the by, I read a comment by Brick in some other thread where he said he was used to being complained at as a GM, or something to that effect. I don't recall any villagers complaining in this game, so maybe the wolves have reason to complain. Like, there only being five of them, for example.
Maybe the "complaining to gm" part could be related to the forum meta-aspects. This post from Lewwyn: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802

"If I had been awake I would have argued against lynching Selrahc because no matter what you say about wolves trying to meta the meta I simply don't believe that Selrahc or Jkaen are wolves. Look we've been given a gift in the meta and you guys just squandered it away. Unless Jkaen was laid up it simply doesn't make sense for him to be a wolf. I don't think he ever even registered for the temp forum! If he were a wolf he simply would have seen about the game earlier. He would have been in contact with Brick through the quick topic and he would have been much more invested no? I think the Selrahc lynch was a total mistake and a gift for the wolves."

What if he's telling the truth and it's generally what the wolves thought in quicktopic. I recall Waterbat saying on the temp forums that players arriving first to the forums are wolves. Later he suggests draw. I don't even remember him using this meta argument against anyone later, why not? So maybe the wolves realized the meta-aspect a bit later and thought it would make it impossible for them to win. Selrahc being lynched was enormously lucky break.

I now see people pushing for Jkaen while waterbat keeps slipping as a backburner. I did not like the "we got this in the bag" speech by Pind, followed by "if one of these is wrong (meaning Jkaen in practice), we lynch Catwalk/Meiz for the win". I don't believe for a second that Lewwyn's, Matt's and Molach's attacks on Catwalk were all just distancing... I think it's more likely that Lewwyn stopped attacking him, because Catwalk seemed to believe him as villager. So why would he continue the attacks?

The evidence points at Pind being villager, but my gut screams something might not be right here... I'm not really comfortable with him becoming the mayor.

And waterbat: "my gut is telling me lynch jkaen - meiz for the win"

Waterbat
TT
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Lewwyn:

Post 1445 @Ichabod:
"I both agree and disagree with this. I agree its weird not to use the more harmful restriction on Novice. But I disagree that Meiz was "starting to get heat". I thought of him as pretty clean before the PR. Novice also thought Meiz was pretty innocent. Only Gaspar stated anything suspicious of Meiz. So, no, I think you are very wrong about that. Again reading that makes me feel like you are twisting facts to make it seem like there's more suspicion than there is... phantom bandwagon much?

The way that people have been viewing the PRs with distrust makes me think its much less likely a wolf would draw more attention to themselves with a PR. You do say "it can wait" and I wholeheartedly agree with that. Let's not go meta."


Post 2403 @Rowain:
"The PRs are a null tell IMO and are simply a distraction. The fact they you bring them up and try to use them as part of the argument to point towards an organize wolfpack, or me, seems a bit scummy to me."

Post 1475 @Catwalk
"Is he painting Meiz to be scum from during the night forward?
-"Hey wolves fake a restriction."
-"Hey Meiz you must be a wolf with that restriction, lol Jk Jk, I kid, but here's some dirt on you when you can't really talk anyway."



He basically kept saying how pr's are a distraction, and attacked people who suspected players because of it. So maybe that was the plan, pr two villagers early and then get an excuse to attack people going against them. Best case, pr'd player is mislynched and he gets to accuse the mislynchers as wolves.
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I think Catwalk raised good points in his defense, and I also found day 4, where Lewwyn wants to give both Matt and Injera more time and then votes Catwalk (post 1877). It's hard to believe he'd still try to push another wolf on the block with the day 4 situation.

When catwalk votes Matt, Lewwyn seems honestly pissed about it:
"Oh man. "It's worth losing a power role in exchange for a wolf that can give us more leads". And what if Mattimeo is a villager and we lose two PRs for nothing?

BTW this post is the reason I just revoted you in my last post even though I was telling myself, "Go look at other people today"..."
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I think it's too soon to say that someone hangs too easily. We've established that Jkaen looks more suspicious than waterbat, 27h before lynchtime. Bandwagons aren't likely to stick for that long, so there wouldn't be all that much risk for the wolves in letting this bandwagon rise and fall. I suggest we focus on other arguments to determine guilt. I'm not impressed with the meta arguments in defense of Jkaen either.

Meiz, do you believe pindicator went straight for a sacrifice of Lewwyn yesterday? You seem to be highly suspicious of him still.
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@Catwalk, that's probably the only thing that stops me from voting him. For example, looking at the votes (my comments after each day starting with --)

DAY ONE

thestick - 9 - zakalwe, novice, Bigger, tasunke, Mattimeo, Arromir, Serdoa, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Bigger - 8 - Rowain, Lewwyn, Injera, Jkaen, Sareln, Merovech, uberfish, Catwalk
Injera - 2 - Gaspar, Waterbat
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
uberfish - 1 - Qgqqqqq
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
Jkaen - 1 - Meiz
Merovech - 1 - Pindicator

Players not voting: Ichabod, thestick

-- It looks like wolves bussing thestick, but in the end there was a chance to save a strong wolf pr and Pind's vote did not end up on thestick, what ultimately matters. Remember, thestick had not voted, so it would have only taken one vote to Bigger.


DAY TWO

Sareln - 8 - Mattimeo, Arromir, tasunke, Merovech, Molach, Pindicator, Twinkletoes89, Serdoa
Pindicator - 7 - Rowain, Sareln, Ichabod, uberfish, novice, Meiz, Catwalk
Ichabod - 5 - Lewwyn, Injera, Gaspar, Qgqqqqq, Jkaen
uberfish - 3 - Azza, Bigger, Waterbat
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Selrahc

-- I believe end votes on Pind consist on villagers only.

DAY FOUR

Mattimeo - 8 - novice, Waterbat, Catwalk, Meiz, Ichabod, Rowain, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Qgqqqqq - 5 - Selrahc, tasunke, Gaspar, Jkaen, Mattimeo
Injera - 2 - Qgqqqqq, Pindicator
Catwalk - 2 - Injera, Azza
Selrahc - 1 - Lewwyn

Arromirwas mod-killed for inactivity.

-- Null vote on Injera.

DAY FIVE

Rowain - 8 - Pindicator, novice, Selrahc, Twinkletoes89, Injera, Gaspar, Catwalk, Waterbat
Pindicator - 4 - Jkaen, Azza, Ichabod, Meiz
Ichabod - 2 - Lewwyn, Rowain
Selrahc - 2 - Molach, tasunke

-- Again I think all villagers voting Pind.

DAY SEVEN

Molach - 6 - novice, Lewwyn, Waterbat, Azza, Gaspar, Pindicator
Azza - 4 - Meiz, Catwalk, Molach, Ichabod
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
novice - 1 - Jkaen
Meiz - 1 - Twinkletoes89

-- The way Molach played that day, I strongly believe he was bussed and sacrifaced for villager creds.

DAY TEN

Lewwyn - 4 - novice, Pindicator, Meiz, Gaspar
Meiz - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Waterbat, Catwalk
Pindicator - 1 - Jkaen
Gaspar - 1 - Lewwyn

And this is the day which makes me hesitant to vote Pind.
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If Lewwyn had doubts on wolves changes to win, I don't see it impossible that he'd suggest being sacrificed to get deep cover wolf. His "single vote on Gaspar - day" would fit with that.
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Any particular reason you left out days 3, 6, 8 & 9 out of your analysis?
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
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