(October 19th, 2012, 18:41)pindicator Wrote: Gaspar, can you still share your reasoning for pushing jkaen? Was it any different than my reasons to vote him?
No, not really. The primary issue to me isn't so much that Jkaen is more clearly scum than Waterbat, its that I, like you, think they're the last two. However, if we're somehow wrong Jkaen has completely stopped contributing whereas Waterbat is still trying to save himself. By that, we can continue to get information from him, where as the Jkaen well has run dry. More on this in a second...
(October 19th, 2012, 18:59)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: So you have a majority without me - a virtually confirmed villager.
So that must mean you think Jkaen and Meiz are the two mafia. Otherwise you have a mafia on mafia voter which is surely unrealistic right now.
This is a valid point, but I think its key to recognize our goal right now isn't to find all the remaining scum today, its to lynch the most likely scum left AND hopefully glean insight into who the other scum is for the future.
(October 19th, 2012, 20:11)pindicator Wrote: Like I said earlier, I think jkaen @ waterbat are likely the last two scum. I've been more sure of jkaen, and maybe some of that comes from the fact I was on jkaen before I came around to waterbat, but I think he's the better lynch. Jkaen not posting to defend himself or address the points that I have brought up is making me feel better about that decision, too.
I also said earlier I think waterbat is trying to bus jkaen to gain credit, and throwing dirt on catwalk to try to get a mislynch tomorrow. I haven't seen good arguments out of him at all, just desperate ones.
I think this is the clincher for me - look at the worst case scenario. If we lynch Waterbat and he is innocent, then we look at Jkaen. We've gained no other info. If we lynch Jkaen and he is innocent, then we look at Waterbat but we also have insights into who the hidden second scum is - Catwalk certainly would qualify in this scenario as a candidate based on potential distancing, etc. Simply the fact that Jkaen has (1) stopped playing and (2) is considered by everyone to be likely scum means he has to go today. He's not going to add anything else positive to the pile and he's always going to be a suspect.
I'm not sure I explained myself well there but I guess the only situation in which I would consider Waterbat a superior candidate is if we decide Meiz's argument on Jkaen is persuasive. I don't, since its all based on meta, really. I've been wrong a lot this game but I frankly would be very surprised if Jkaen were innocent - the pieces just fit together all too neatly. He's basically playing the exact same game as Molach - he sounded like an interested villager early in the game and as its gone on he's disappeared for personal reasons (which again, I'm sure are 100% legit and am not calling into question) and then has found it easier to just stay gone for long stretches of time. I thought he was village for most of the game myself, but at some point when your voting record is *that* bad and you've stopped contributing, Occam's says you're probably scum. Particularly since we know its not like Jkaen is a terrible WW player, he's actually quite solid.
I'm not arguing in favor of Waterbat - I think he's more than likely the other scum at this point. But I'm like 90% sure of Jkaen's guilt, I'm only maybe 60% certain on Waterbat. They've both played excellent games to get this far, but I think its winning time now. Let's stop the self-doubt and put this game to bed.
(October 19th, 2012, 20:11)pindicator Wrote: I also said earlier I think waterbat is trying to bus jkaen to gain credit, and throwing dirt on catwalk to try to get a mislynch tomorrow. I haven't seen good arguments out of him at all, just desperate ones.
wow... just.... wow.
I think we've reached the critical point here village.
@all: I actually was doing an open examination of those catwalk posts for the explicit purpose of trying to answer the following question:
If catwalk and TT89 are indeed innocent as we collectively decided, how can all the Lewwyn voters also be innocent?
I didn't buy my own argument - even posting afterwards to say still favored jkaen and Meiz.
Cyan is terrible with this background. unvote
I no longer buy pindicator's too-convenient timing. He's now decided to stand up and lead us to victory now that novice is dead? I strongly believe he has betrayed himself and is indeed one of the final scum. In wolf's shoes, I would gladly trade in 1 of my last 3 members (lewwyn) for 2 more mislynches and the win. Who is pushing a 2-person lynch wagon? Pindicator.
I think I've spotted a big weakness in my game that was exploited by both Lewwyn and Pindicator this game. If someone defends me, I automatically start leaning innocent on them. The more Lewwyn defended, the more i was on his side. Same with pindicator - I was on the fence even when he was making scummy posts - mainly because he kept throwing in defenses of me.
I've re-read through all of pindi's posts.
i find the 1-line invocations of Lewwyn to be odd.
Quote:Lewwyn, it's time to wake up. Figuratively, not literally
Quote:Do what you do lewwyn. That is all I meant. You've sniffed out wolves in the last few games, after all.
Quote:Lewwyn, dammit. You stole my thunder. I started putting day 3 posts into my spreadsheet and on the very first one of the day.
Quote:
Quote:Originally Posted by Catwalk
Ouch, bad break for the village. GG Bigger and Serdoa.
Sometimes you see a post and you wonder "how the hell did I miss that the first time?"
Catwalk
I quoted this one as an example of how hard pindicator was pushing catwalk early on.
Pindicator was the scum on Tasunke day 6.
After it looked very likely I would hang on Day 8, he made sure to join the Azza wagon - putting 2 villagers up for the block, but not getting his hands dirty as I was sure to hang. Novice rescued me at the 11th hour and i think his (novice's) regrets caused him to suspect me after that.
Lewwyn's responses to pindicator early:
Quote:I don't think I've stated my opinion on your innocence yet, but I actually haven't made up my mind.
Quote:-I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement
Quote:Interesting to me too. I'm willing to start on Pindicator and see where that shakes out.
Today is weird. I think watching who votes for who will be a good indication of who's more suspicious of less suspicious.
Quote:I will stay on Pindi for now, but I'm going to be around... probably will be drinking a bit tonight (Friday/Holiday/Just got paid) but I will make a final post/decision before I pass out.
but just 4-posts later, votes for Tasunke.
(October 7th, 2012, 04:21)Lewwyn Wrote: Pindi is honestly still a mystery to me. I just can't get a full read. Maybe I just haven't looked hard enough. The issue for me is that I don't have anything to hold onto with him. I can't remember a post by him that made me stop and think about what he said except for one post he made back on Day 2 where he stated that the entire reason for hanging him seemed to be based on a vote switch of which could be read as either a villager or a wolf... Let me see if I can find it.
again non-committal on pindicator - when have we seen Lewwyn so non-opinionated?
Quote:Bullshit. Have to go to bed but I'm answering this when I have a chance tomorrow.
and his eventual back and forth with pindicator - but neither of them are really in danger at this point. Its right in the middle of Me and Azza going up for death.
I'm kind of surprised we didnt see more of Lewwyn calling out his teamates in this game. I'm thinking back to my last game as wolf with Brick in the QT with me. he couldnt stand that each post I made went deeper into crazyland. so he called me out in the main thread for it. Lewwyn didnt go after Matt or Molach much at all though.
Yes, its safer to follow my survival instinct and ride out the jkaen lynch train as it is the only current alternative to my death, but im advocating that we put down pindicator as the most dangerous threat to the village today.
remember if jkaen goes and flips wolf, i was early on him -- oh wait - i was bussing him - yeah.
I actually may be around tomorrow around lynch time as its a Saturday.
--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
was just about to go and vote you mayoral powers and you go and push a two person lynch with that last sentence. But at least your reasoning prior to that is quite sound. You must vote Jkaen first. If you vote me first, we lose. It only takes 1 villager to be wrong. If jkaen is that villager - its ww14 again - he won't be caught up on the thread, so will make a substandard decision. If he's wolf, it only takes one of the others to be convinced.
I know that last post wasn't really a defense - I was really tired of being lazy waterbat following the consensus - it really hasnt done us that good so far.
i really don't think lewwyn defending me like he did makes me lean as one of his buddies. The funny thing was i should have KNOWN Lewwyn was scum at this point. His defense of me was that I started out with role play and would have kept it up if i was scum. Really? That's as bogus a reason for an adamant defense as I've heard yet. I should have called it out - but you know - gift horses and mouths.
Also Lewwyn stated this the day Mattimeo was up for vote:
Quote:Right now I think my second choice on the day is waterbat. I'll probably talk about that a little this afternoon.
i think its clear i would be an easy mislynch in the endgame or that i'd be sitting here unable to rally people to my cause a la ww14. Lewwyn then went on the defense of me and I can sit here unharmed until now. There's a reason im still alive and its not because the wolves are hoping i pull it out for them.
This is a great list from Lewwyn:
Quote:19) Lewwyn: the Garbage collector
21) Catwalk: the Bureaucrat
1) novice: the Secretary
9) Waterbat: the Clergy
3) Meiz: the Firefighter
26) Twinkletoes89: the Barber
Gonna draw line here since this ends the people I trust most and think are mostly village.
23) Jkaen: the Olive Picker
25) Selrahc: the Knife smith
22) Gaspar: the Carpenter
10) Pindicator: the Lawyer
14) Ichabod: the Pizza Delivery Boy
8) Azza: the Mechanic
is it assuming too much he would put one of his wolf buddies in each list? I havent really worked out exactly who Pindicators partner is likely to be.
--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
(October 19th, 2012, 22:49)Gaspar Wrote: I think this is the clincher for me - look at the worst case scenario. If we lynch Waterbat and he is innocent, then we look at Jkaen. We've gained no other info. If we lynch Jkaen and he is innocent, then we look at Waterbat but we also have insights into who the hidden second scum is - Catwalk certainly would qualify in this scenario as a candidate based on potential distancing, etc. Simply the fact that Jkaen has (1) stopped playing and (2) is considered by everyone to be likely scum means he has to go today. He's not going to add anything else positive to the pile and he's always going to be a suspect.
I'm not sure I explained myself well there but I guess the only situation in which I would consider Waterbat a superior candidate is if we decide Meiz's argument on Jkaen is persuasive. I don't, since its all based on meta, really. I've been wrong a lot this game but I frankly would be very surprised if Jkaen were innocent - the pieces just fit together all too neatly. He's basically playing the exact same game as Molach - he sounded like an interested villager early in the game and as its gone on he's disappeared for personal reasons (which again, I'm sure are 100% legit and am not calling into question) and then has found it easier to just stay gone for long stretches of time. I thought he was village for most of the game myself, but at some point when your voting record is *that* bad and you've stopped contributing, Occam's says you're probably scum. Particularly since we know its not like Jkaen is a terrible WW player, he's actually quite solid.
I'm not arguing in favor of Waterbat - I think he's more than likely the other scum at this point. But I'm like 90% sure of Jkaen's guilt, I'm only maybe 60% certain on Waterbat. They've both played excellent games to get this far, but I think its winning time now. Let's stop the self-doubt and put this game to bed.
Well said Gaspar, and thank you for sharing this because it wasn't something I had thought of. I have a bad habit of jumping ahead 2 or 3 steps when I feel sure of the first -- I'm sure it's where I came across as being smug sometimes. So we should absolutely pick the lynch with the least risk to the village.
@waterbat - so you do not think jkaen is scum now?
I'll catch your answer in the morning, heading to bed
(October 19th, 2012, 13:54)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: Any particular reason you left out days 3, 6, 8 & 9 out of your analysis?
Sorry, did not have time to respond yesterday. I just copy/pasted the days from my notes that were related to the point I was making. Here's the other days for reference:
(October 19th, 2012, 14:01)pindicator Wrote: This is day 4 when jkaen starts thinking that maybe there are 2 wolves on the block on day 1. But he never votes mattimeo! Not on the initial push, not on the late push. Instead he uses this "insight" to attack the people that were on the mattimeo bandwagon.
Ok, that's a good find and I'd really like Jkaen respond to it.
Waterbat, to me it sounds like you still suspect Jkaen as well?
(October 19th, 2012, 14:20)pindicator Wrote: I also don't think jkaen has been as absent as much as he appears to have been. He was following along yesterday enough to question Novice for switching his vote off of Meiz and onto Waterbat.
(October 17th, 2012, 03:00)Jkaen Wrote: Novice what pulled you away from Meiz and onto his target?
(October 17th, 2012, 03:04)novice Wrote: My self-doubt and Waterbat's suspect list.
(October 17th, 2012, 03:42)Jkaen Wrote: But isn't that list the same as Gaspars essentially (or is that your point)?
And that's all he posted after voting for me yesterday. Aside from a no-explanation vote on me, those were his only posts all day. So why post that? Why isn't he trying to push for a lynch on me? At first I thought that was telling of a jkaen/meiz pair because jkaen's post was looking to clear Meiz (a la slowcheetah trying to clear injera in WW14). But his follow-up shows he is more interested in waterbat.
Which brings me back to waterbat & jkaen as our wolf pair. I can be talked out of the order, but I really think we need to go for one of them today.
So based on me posting 3 times yesterday that proves I have been around a lot in game? What sort of logic is that?
(October 19th, 2012, 18:59)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: So you have a majority without me - a virtually confirmed villager.
So that must mean you think Jkaen and Meiz are the two mafia. Otherwise you have a mafia on mafia voter which is surely unrealistic right now.
No, not at all. And I'm not trying to minimize your contribution; I'm sorry if it came across like that.
Like I said earlier, I think jkaen @ waterbat are likely the last two scum. I've been more sure of jkaen, and maybe some of that comes from the fact I was on jkaen before I came around to waterbat, but I think he's the better lynch. Jkaen not posting to defend himself or address the points that I have brought up is making me feel better about that decision, too.
I also said earlier I think waterbat is trying to bus jkaen to gain credit, and throwing dirt on catwalk to try to get a mislynch tomorrow. I haven't seen good arguments out of him at all, just desperate ones.
And I would like to hear from Gaspar why he thinks Jkaen is the better lynch, because I am very close on the two. As I said before, I could be talked into switching to waterbat because I suspect them both. But if Gaspar has a good point as to why Jkaen needs to be the first lynch then I'll stay put.
Well of course me not responding on a friday as I have done all game may have something to do with not defending, but lets not consider that
(October 19th, 2012, 20:11)pindicator Wrote: I also said earlier I think waterbat is trying to bus jkaen to gain credit, and throwing dirt on catwalk to try to get a mislynch tomorrow. I haven't seen good arguments out of him at all, just desperate ones.
wow... just.... wow.
I think we've reached the critical point here village.
@all: I actually was doing an open examination of those catwalk posts for the explicit purpose of trying to answer the following question:
If catwalk and TT89 are indeed innocent as we collectively decided, how can all the Lewwyn voters also be innocent?
I didn't buy my own argument - even posting afterwards to say still favored jkaen and Meiz.
Cyan is terrible with this background. unvote
I no longer buy pindicator's too-convenient timing. He's now decided to stand up and lead us to victory now that novice is dead? I strongly believe he has betrayed himself and is indeed one of the final scum. In wolf's shoes, I would gladly trade in 1 of my last 3 members (lewwyn) for 2 more mislynches and the win. Who is pushing a 2-person lynch wagon? Pindicator.
I think I've spotted a big weakness in my game that was exploited by both Lewwyn and Pindicator this game. If someone defends me, I automatically start leaning innocent on them. The more Lewwyn defended, the more i was on his side. Same with pindicator - I was on the fence even when he was making scummy posts - mainly because he kept throwing in defenses of me.
I've re-read through all of pindi's posts.
i find the 1-line invocations of Lewwyn to be odd.
Quote:Lewwyn, it's time to wake up. Figuratively, not literally
Quote:Do what you do lewwyn. That is all I meant. You've sniffed out wolves in the last few games, after all.
Quote:Lewwyn, dammit. You stole my thunder. I started putting day 3 posts into my spreadsheet and on the very first one of the day.
Quote:
Quote:Originally Posted by Catwalk
Ouch, bad break for the village. GG Bigger and Serdoa.
Sometimes you see a post and you wonder "how the hell did I miss that the first time?"
Catwalk
I quoted this one as an example of how hard pindicator was pushing catwalk early on.
Pindicator was the scum on Tasunke day 6.
After it looked very likely I would hang on Day 8, he made sure to join the Azza wagon - putting 2 villagers up for the block, but not getting his hands dirty as I was sure to hang. Novice rescued me at the 11th hour and i think his (novice's) regrets caused him to suspect me after that.
Lewwyn's responses to pindicator early:
Quote:I don't think I've stated my opinion on your innocence yet, but I actually haven't made up my mind.
Quote:-I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement
Quote:Interesting to me too. I'm willing to start on Pindicator and see where that shakes out.
Today is weird. I think watching who votes for who will be a good indication of who's more suspicious of less suspicious.
Quote:I will stay on Pindi for now, but I'm going to be around... probably will be drinking a bit tonight (Friday/Holiday/Just got paid) but I will make a final post/decision before I pass out.
but just 4-posts later, votes for Tasunke.
(October 7th, 2012, 04:21)Lewwyn Wrote: Pindi is honestly still a mystery to me. I just can't get a full read. Maybe I just haven't looked hard enough. The issue for me is that I don't have anything to hold onto with him. I can't remember a post by him that made me stop and think about what he said except for one post he made back on Day 2 where he stated that the entire reason for hanging him seemed to be based on a vote switch of which could be read as either a villager or a wolf... Let me see if I can find it.
again non-committal on pindicator - when have we seen Lewwyn so non-opinionated?
Quote:Bullshit. Have to go to bed but I'm answering this when I have a chance tomorrow.
and his eventual back and forth with pindicator - but neither of them are really in danger at this point. Its right in the middle of Me and Azza going up for death.
I'm kind of surprised we didnt see more of Lewwyn calling out his teamates in this game. I'm thinking back to my last game as wolf with Brick in the QT with me. he couldnt stand that each post I made went deeper into crazyland. so he called me out in the main thread for it. Lewwyn didnt go after Matt or Molach much at all though.
Yes, its safer to follow my survival instinct and ride out the jkaen lynch train as it is the only current alternative to my death, but im advocating that we put down pindicator as the most dangerous threat to the village today.
remember if jkaen goes and flips wolf, i was early on him -- oh wait - i was bussing him - yeah.
I actually may be around tomorrow around lynch time as its a Saturday.
As much as I don't like Pind's play I think it is a bit uneccesary to bus Lewwyn yesterday, they could easily have gotten another mislynch I would think
