WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

pindicator, what sticks out to you?

I would like to see what Gaspar responces to my questions, especially what he thinks the best play for today is.

Before waterbat's suggestion i was having 2nd thoughts about waterbat-meiz not being possible b/c everybody besides meiz who voted waterbat yesterday is dead and meiz did not vote for waterbat. When i pushed him to vote his conclusion of voting for me is bad reasoning: he doesn't think there is much chance that there is one wolf, then lists two combinations of possibilities that both include gaspar, but doesn't vote gaspar.

Obviously he can't be partners with them both... so pushing him ended up being less helpful than i wanted it to be. Would like to see him continue to post his reasoning, i do like that he did that much even if i think he veered away from where he was logically going

I think unless something else pops up i need to read past posts by all 3 and decide who is most likely village. 2 scum left means 67% odds to hit one; 1 scum left meand we still have a mislynch.

[Gaspar]

Going to address this first. Warning ahead of time I'm super-tired so probably only semi-coherent, but I don't have a ton of time tomorrow and I want to make sure I get my thoughts out.

No, the buddying up comment wasn't aimed at you. Here are the reasons I suspect you, note that I'm not locked in by any means nor have I done sufficient rereading yet.

Voting record
Day 1:
184
Gaspar half-heartedly defends thestick, suggesting he's mislynchable by making a Sareln reference.

Sits on an Injera vote, later rushes in past the deadline to add a vote on thestick.

I honestly feel pretty good about my day one. I had a read and pursued it. I also generally prefer to be a dissenting voice against novice/zakalwe until I am convinced of their innocence because I'm one of the few who can stop a runaway zak/novice train. I never said I thought thestick innocent because I agreed with why they thought he was scummy, but I'm always wary of day one runaways.

Day 2:
Wolves are divided on Sareln (8 votes) and Ichabod (5 votes) with 7 on pindicator. Gaspar votes Ichabod. Fits with a pindicator/Gaspar wolf pair, no wolves on pindicator unless Meiz is wolf (I was on pindicator as well).

Didn't like the vibe from Ichabod. He had an incredibly strong role and it probably made him play a bit scummy early. Not the only who felt that way.

Day 3:
Gaspar starts out suspecting Rowain straight away, then sits back and lets others question him (me and novice it seems, pindicator was also on him). Later jumps in to say he has nothing to add but wants to give pindicator buddy points for his vote tracker. When he eventually returns to Rowain, he plays good cop with him:

That's why it looks like a scummy vote park rather than a village conviction. And if you were so convinced, why have you not made said case today instead of just getting annoyed? I can't speak for the others but what I'd like is some insight from you, in theory you are picking this up given your aggressive evidence gathering.

I was trying to get a feel - very much on the fence about him. There's functionally no difference between Rowain village and Rowain scum.

Later, he reinforces the belief that Lewwyn won't be any use until day 4 (possibly helping to give Lewwyn an alibi for mislynches):

Lewwyn, are you going to start being useful at some point or do we have to wait for day 4 for that this time because its a bigger game?

I was trying to get him to contribute, certainly not give him an alibi.

This sounds a little too accurate to me, considering we didn't know Mattimeo's alignment yet:

If mafia loses members on days 1 and 2 that will feel like they're losing. So if one of the 3 main candidates yesterday flips scum, I think we can probably do some retrospective analysis which will give us some very good info. Until such time as one of them are killed or lynched, however, this is probably best filed for the future.

I don't really suspect this info is there on day one, despite knowing the alignments of both candidates. As has been stated, the better place to look on day one voting info is earlier in the day. At the end of the day, wolves would have been in self-preservation mode having outted a baner and watched a wolf go spectacularly up-in-flames, I think that was every man for himself.

I don't follow. At this point we were still mostly presuming Matt's innocence.

Riling up Rowain further:

Why don't you try scumhunting instead of temper tantruming if you're innocent?

I often taunt to try and get someone to make a mistake. I got zak this way a few games back.

Cherry picking things that stand out to me, not trying to summarize the full days. Have to finish this later, but here are a few more gut feels:

Lewwyn voted Gaspar on the day he hung. Unless there's only one wolf left, there was a wolf on Lewwyn (myself and waterbat are the only Meiz voters still alive). If Lewwyn was bussed, trying to give Gaspar cover makes sense.

Rowain was an excellent target to rile up, and I think Gaspar knew this. Not saying that Gaspar did most of the riling up, but Rowain acted exactly like scum would hope him to. Rowain antagonized half the village which probably contributed to his later lynch. Gaspar would know this better than anyone, being prone to outbursts himself in the past and having deliberately antagonized a villager as a wolf before (Serdoa, don't remember the game).

Gaspar has received little suspicion all game in spite of a poor voting record, he's not once been a serious lynch candidate that I've been able to find.

Again, I'm not locked in and not done examining your posts. Also not done examining others either.

[/QUOTE]

Disagree I've received little suspicion, I've never been so close to being mislynched. I think I've gotten votes almost every day and I was a crusade target at varying points for Injera, Ichabod and novice. They all eventually backed off but particularly the day novice was heavy on me I thought I was toast. And my voting record isn't really all that bad comparatively - I was on the last two scum. If I were scum I could have saved Lewwyn and I cast the vote that pushed Molach into the lead in addition to being on him heavy early in the day.

Bottom line, this hasn't been my best game and I've made some mistakes, the Rowain and Jkaen lynches in particular but it doesn't change the fact that I've been doing my damnedest to get us to the finish line.

[pindicator]

Don't forget my questions, Gaspar!

Btw, I am reading Meiz's stuf right now and I was wrong about how long he's been suspicious of waterbat. he's been on waterbat since day 2. Maybe there's some fluxuation between days 2 & 8, but I'm feeling more certain again that it cannot be a meiz - waterbat wolf pair. Also, I like his early posts: he's asking people to clarify, making good observations, not jumping on people - it looks villagery early on for meiz.

[Gaspar]

Gaspar
You keep talking about process, so in your opinion which path has the least risk to village as being wrong? Taking into account there are possibilities of 2 scum & 1 scum, who makes sense as a wolf pair to you? Using that, what's the best way to proceed? I am considering voting for you just because of the reason of processes: point being that if there are 2 scum, I've got you as the scum partner. See my post at the beginning of the day for details. Would like a response from you about this.

Also - now you don't trust me as much as you did yesterday? I'm unclear from your post; you aren't attacking me, but your mayor vote seems to say you have more doubts now than you did yesterday.

Gaspar, if you think waterbat is soft-pedally Meiz's attack, then who do you think is his wolf partner?

Second question first, it seems like he's trying to soft-pedal his attack because he is Meiz's scum buddy. Basically using the same argument as Waterbat attacked me with you apply it to Meiz and it actually rings truer. He said that I was on him but Meiz was on him all day and actually voted for him. Basically he needs to invent a case against me and easy enough to just ignore Meiz and hope people ignore it too.

On trusting you, well not exactly. Nothing has really changed but the odds. You were convinced I was village yesterday and are now heavily considering voting for me. When there's 5 left and there could be 2 scum, you have to consider everyone. But right now you're the one I'm most sure of as innocent.

Bottom line is if there's one scum left, I'm almost certain its Waterbat. Catwalk is an excellent second choice if I weren't feeling so strong about Waterbat. I do not believe either you or Meiz would be lone scum at this point.

If there are two scum left, I rank the likelihood as 1) Waterbat/Meiz; 2) Waterbat/Pindicator; 3) Meiz/Pindicator. This is mostly after watching today flesh out, which is probably our best indication of buddying. I think Meiz and Waterbat have deliberately avoided attacking each other after doing so for some time. That strikes me as suspicious. If they were the last two scum, they'd want to avoid a situation where they were the last two on the block. If they can get it to come down to Waterbat vs you or me, they just bonk on to whichever one of us picks up a vote at the deadline and that's ballgame.

But watching Waterbat's tour de scum above just cinches it for me. He's either a lone wolf or in a pair with Meiz and I'd be shocked at any other outcome.

[Gaspar]

Also, I lost the multi-quote somewhere but I think you asked me generically on strategy. I still think its more likely we have a pair. Maybe a 25% chance of lone scum. But ultimately at possible lylo you just have to go with your strongest scum read, a bad meta vote that loses the game is unconscionable. A bad read that loses the game sucks, but at least you go with your guns. At least that's what I believe.

In my case however, I think both line-up with a Waterbat vote. I'm not going to go and drag through a month of posts - I think Waterbat's revealed himself the last 3 days after I thought he was innocent all game. I guess its time for me to stop underestimating him.

[pindicator]

But ultimately at possible lylo you just have to go with your strongest scum read, a bad meta vote that loses the game is unconscionable. A bad read that loses the game sucks, but at least you go with your guns. At least that's what I believe.

Now this is good advice, IMO. Better to go out going with what you believe is most likely.

Catwalk, that's what I advise: vote for the person you think is scummiest. Keep looking into potential scummates, but ultimately I think you should vote with the person who looks the most likely to be the bad guy. And there's no contest to that discussion, in my opinion; it's gotta be waterbat.

[waterbat]

It's an interesting choice of words. " I guess I need to stop underestimating him.". 4:00am here and just woke up, but i think to assume that I would post what I did as scum is a gross miscalculation and just the underestimation you describe. Why would I draw such attention in an endgame where everyone has Gaspar on their scum list and he is also leading the vote count.

I have never been shy about the fact that I am terrible at reading people. It's true in person as well. To that end, I suppose I am quite a useless villager. Unfortunately, the time to kill me off is NOT at LyLo.

Speaking of reads - I have no clue who is scum. I think that is the cause of my desperation and in part the cause of my wanting some way where I can let someone else have the final say. In ww14 and ww15 and now ww16, there is no way you guys are going to take me seriously - I've put too much crap out there. That's the other problem I have - i don't mind posting in stream of consciousness style - what results are a good number of inane posts.

I think there is no doubt I am the most lynchable candidate and was reserved for this purpose. At first I thought lewwyn defending me was just to influence my votes ( it did ), but now I see that it was to keep me here to the end.

I'm not sure I can afford to blow off work today, but I will try my best to contribute. I ask that you villagers look at my posts from yesterday framed as a desperate villager and see if they fit.

[Meiz]

To that end, I suppose I am quite a useless villager. Unfortunately, the time to kill me off is NOT at LyLo.

What do you mean by this?
I also did not get what you meant with your TT comments (first part of http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid302912)

[waterbat]

Meiz - I mean - if you (the village) wanted to kill me for being useless - the time/opportunity to do that is past.

TT comments: pindicator jumped on me for not realizing that if i was a lone wolf killing TT would be my path to victory. So I was confirming - I hadn't thought that the killing of TT would be explained as a 1-wolf waterbat trying to weasel his way to victory.

how do you read my comments from last night?

[waterbat]

vote tallies:

DAY ONE

thestick - 9 - zakalwe, novice, Bigger, tasunke, Mattimeo, Arromir, Serdoa, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Bigger - 8 - Rowain, Lewwyn, Injera, jkaen, Sareln, Merovech, uberfish, Catwalk
Injera - 2 - Gaspar, Waterbat
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
uberfish - 1 - Qgqqqqq
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
jkaen - 1 - Meiz
Merovech - 1 - Pindicator

Players not voting: Ichabod, thestick
Zakalwe was night-killed. novice was post restricted. Qqqqq tracked Mattimeo with no result. Injera followed Pindicator with no result.

DAY TWO

Sareln - 8 - Mattimeo, Arromir, tasunke, Merovech, Molach, Pindicator, Twinkletoes89, Serdoa
Pindicator - 7 - Rowain, Sareln, Ichabod, uberfish, novice, Meiz, Catwalk
Ichabod - 5 - Lewwyn, Injera, Gaspar, Qgqqqqq, jkaen
uberfish - 3 - Azza, Bigger, Waterbat
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Selrahc

Serdoa was night-killed. Bigger suicided. Meiz was post restricted. Qqqqq tracked novice with no result. Injera followed Mattimeo with no result.

DAY THREE

Merovech- 9 - uberfish, Catwalk, Waterbat, Mattimeo, novice, Meiz, Rowain, Gaspar, Azza
Catwalk - 7 - Lewwyn, Pindicator, Qgqqqqq, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod, Merovech, Injera
Rowain- 1 - tasunke
Selrahc - 1 - jkaen

Players not voting: Arromir, Molach, Selrahc

Uberfish was night-killed. Qqqqq tracked Injera visiting Catwalk. Injera followed Catwalk with no result.

DAY FOUR

Mattimeo - 8 - novice, Waterbat, Catwalk, Meiz, Ichabod, Rowain, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Qgqqqqq - 5 - Selrahc, tasunke, Gaspar, jkaen, Mattimeo
Injera - 2 - Qgqqqqq, Pindicator
Catwalk - 2 - Injera, Azza
Selrahc - 1 - Lewwyn

Arromirwas mod-killed for inactivity.

Qgqqqq was night-killed. Injera followed Azza with no result.

DAY FIVE

Rowain - 8 - Pindicator, novice, Selrahc, Twinkletoes89, Injera, Gaspar, Catwalk, Waterbat
Pindicator - 4 - jkaen, Azza, Ichabod, Meiz
Ichabod - 2 - Lewwyn, Rowain
Selrahc - 2 - Molach, tasunke

Rowain was lynched, but didn't die until the end of night 5.

Rowain or noone was night-killed. Injera followed Lewwyn with no result.

DAY SIX

Meiz - 5 - Azza, tasunke, Gaspar, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod
tasunke - 5 - Pindicator, Selrahc, Injera, Waterbat, Catwalk
Azza - 3 - Lewwyn, Meiz, novice
Selrahc - 2 - Molach, jkaen

As mayor, novice chose to lynch Tasunke.

Injera was night-killed.

DAY SEVEN

Molach - 6 - novice, Lewwyn, Waterbat, Azza, Gaspar, Pindicator
Azza - 4 - Meiz, Catwalk, Molach, Ichabod
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
novice - 1 - jkaen
Meiz - 1 - Twinkletoes89

Noone was nightkilled.
-
DAY EIGHT

Azza - 6 - Lewwyn, Catwalk, Waterbat, Gaspar, Pindicator, novice
Waterbat - 4 - Meiz, Twinkletoes89, Ichabod, Azza
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
Selrahc - 1 - jkaen

Noone was night-killed

DAY NINE

Selrahc - 5 - novice, Pindicator, Ichabod, jkaen, Catwalk
Gaspar - 2 - Selrahc, Twinkletoes89
Waterbat - 1 - Meiz
Pindicator - 1 - Gaspar
Ichabod - 1 - Lewwyn

Players not voting: Waterbat

Ichabod was nightkilled, although novice could have been targeted due to bodyguard ability.

DAY TEN

Lewwyn - 4 - novice, Pindicator, Meiz, Gaspar
Meiz - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Waterbat, Catwalk
Pindicator - 1 - jkaen
Gaspar - 1 - Lewwyn

novice was night-killed.

DAY ELEVEN

Waterbat - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Meiz, jkaen
jkaen - 4 - pindicator, gaspar, catwalk, waterbat

Mayoral Election

Twinkletoes89 - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Meiz, jkaen
pindicator - 3 - pindicator, catwalk, Gaspar
Gaspar - 1 - waterbat