WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[BRickAstley]

Official Lynch Vote Count

Waterbat - 3 - Gaspar, Pindicator, Meiz
Gaspar - 2 - Waterbat, Catwalk

Players not voting: None

Official Mayor Vote Count

Catwalk - 2 - Meiz, Catwalk
Pindicator - 2 - Pindicator, Waterbat
Gaspar - 1 - Gaspar

Players not voting: None

~6 Hours Left

[Gaspar]

so then we're back where we started guys.

Gaspar,
if you had 3 choices:
1) elect a mayor who will put your innocent self to death, but you suspect is innocent
2) elect a mayor who appears to favor someone else to die (but could change), but you suspect as guilty
3) defer the election until there was more information out.

in a 7-player game, wouldnt you select 3?

Eh. I don't have that precision of thought. If it were that easy I think we'd not be deadlocked today, for example. There's nobody I feel is 100% innocent. Catwalk has the strongest lean there but if there's only one scum left I think he's right behind on you on likelihood. The game changes completely depending on what angle you take at that question. If there's two scum left, Pindicator who I currently read very likely as innocent is an incredibly plausible scum partner. Bottom line, I think you pick the person whose judgement you most trust. And I guess I should put my money where my mouth is there, since its clear I'm not getting elected.

Pindicator

[waterbat]

I didn't think I was in the lead.

Thanks Brick

I really don't know where to go from here, guys.

funny mayor count - as Gaspar is in the situation I described and he accuses me for - faced with choices of voting for catwalk who would put him to death, or pindicator who he has to suspect, or letting it defer, which he is doing now.

[waterbat]

x-post - thanks for nullifying my source of amusement, G

[waterbat]

Gaspar, please if you are village, don't ask yourself "who would I rather not lose to?" and answer waterbat.

Pindicator, same request.

You've both intimated that is motivation. This is a ridiculous cop out!! don't want to be bested by the most obvious wolf ever again. I get it, but it shouldnt matter. A loss is a loss and you will have put in all this time and effort for nothing. I've got the opposite problem, as I know who I'd rather lose to at this point, but don't have to worry about it unless we make it to tomorrow.

At least Meiz took the time to come up with a case. Like earlier in the game when he first pushed me, I appreciate the effort.

Meiz - we all put Gaspar in our list of suspected persons. someone is lying about it... someone who didn't follow up their suspicion with a vote. Are you going to be available up until deadline, and what do you want to see from me to prove my innocence?

[Gaspar]

Gaspar, please if you are village, don't ask yourself "who would I rather not lose to?" and answer waterbat.

Pindicator, same request.

You've both intimated that is motivation. This is a ridiculous cop out!! don't want to be bested by the most obvious wolf ever again. I get it, but it shouldnt matter. A loss is a loss and you will have put in all this time and effort for nothing. I've got the opposite problem, as I know who I'd rather lose to at this point, but don't have to worry about it unless we make it to tomorrow.

At least Meiz took the time to come up with a case. Like earlier in the game when he first pushed me, I appreciate the effort.

Meiz - we all put Gaspar in our list of suspected persons. someone is lying about it... someone who didn't follow up their suspicion with a vote. Are you going to be available up until deadline, and what do you want to see from me to prove my innocence?

Well, not for nothing, but I'm not voting for that Gaspar guy, I'm 100% sure he's innocent.

And its not a ridiculous cop-out: I'm not saying I don't want to lose to you because I don't want you to win - you seem like a decent enough guy, I don't begrudge you personally - I'm saying I don't want to lose by voting for anything other than my strongest scum read. You are my strongest scum read. So that's where I'm voting. If I move off you to, say Meiz and I'm wrong, that would be infuriating. That's all I'm saying.

I know the question wasn't posed to me but I'm not sure what you could do to convince me of your innocence at this point, such is the degree to which I'm convinced of your scumminess. But I'd say your best and only shot at this point is to convince us that someone else is scummier. So that's where I think you should be focusing your efforts. We've all heard your defense for several days now and I think all 4 of us find in unconvincing. Even the only person not voting for you has you at worst second in their "list of probable scum" so your current methods aren't working.

Of course, while I'm happy to engage you as a villager, Occam's Razor says the above is probably true because you are indeed scum.

[Gaspar]

For what its worth, I suppose in case I end up hanged today and there's only one scum left so the game continues I'd rank the players in the following order - scummiest to least scummy:

Waterbat
Meiz
Pindicator
Catwalk

I think if its a 1-wolf game and we lynch me and still live, then Waterbat has to die the next day. If its a 1-wolf game and we lynch Waterbat and we're wrong, then I think it matters who lives through the nightkill. If Catwalk survives the nightkill, I'd strongly suggest he's the last scum, even if he's last on my current list. All my scenarios for Meiz and Pindicator involve a partner.

[Meiz]

Meiz - we all put Gaspar in our list of suspected persons. someone is lying about it... someone who didn't follow up their suspicion with a vote. Are you going to be available up until deadline, and what do you want to see from me to prove my innocence?

I feel like you've putting a lot of effort for finding everyone villager, except Gaspar. If we're at lynch or lose situation, it would be enough to get one villager lynched. Yesterday you were going hard against Pind, but it's all forgotten today. You buddy him very hard, even to a point of asking questions solely of him. I'm trying to find your case on Gaspar and have hard time doing so. Catwalk does the accusing, you're just voting him. So I guess I'd like to see a concrete reasons and evidence for your current vote.

I can find this, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid302903
And reactions to his post http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid302904
Which is http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid302908

But you don't even seem to think me as wolf at this point. I don't know how to explain it well, but your responses and questions to me sound like you're talking (and pleading) to a villager from your point of viev, but you do the same for Pind and Catwalk as well. This doesn't really make any sense, unless you think Gaspar is the only wolf left. I'm getting a feeling your putting everything on getting Gaspar lynched and giving villager vibes to everyone else.

[Gaspar]

But you don't even seem to think me as wolf at this point. I don't know how to explain it well, but your responses and questions to me sound like you're talking (and pleading) to a villager from your point of viev, but you do the same for Pind and Catwalk as well. This doesn't really make any sense, unless you think Gaspar is the only wolf left. I'm getting a feeling your putting everything on getting Gaspar lynched and giving villager vibes to everyone else.

This. This is actually exactly what I just wasted like 5 posts trying to say. Everytime Waterbat talks to anyone I hear pleading and buddying. I just sense your only motivation is survival. It just looks like you've picked me as a lynchable candidate and then pour all your effort into chumming up to everyone else in an effort to succeed. Which makes perfect sense if we're at LyLo and you're scum. And no sense at all if you're a villager. As a villager, it should be equally important to find the right lynch as it is for you to not get hanged. And I don't get that sense from you at all.

[waterbat]

well ive been typing this up as you've been talking about me. I'll respond to those in a sec.

waterbat signs:

post 80: My first serious vote hits upon a wolf (thestick)

post 81: I go back to WW15 to pull out a comment from wolf Molach - which is crazy because he actually followed this pattern. Why would I bring out a fellow wolf's MO if he was planning on following it?

Originally Posted by Molach
My wolf MO - build trust early, later on in the game when it becomes difficult to talk about anything without giving away oneself or fellow wolf enter lurk mode. Lurking at start of game is kinda stupid for wolves - it's noticable and not needed as there is plenty to talk about.

We should look for 'blenders' rather than lurkers. Blending in by posting fluff and safe votes, not silence. Anyway.

post 636: in my large list - I again read molach as scummy - noone cares or responds to it because its buried in my huge list of players. Another thing - why would I compile that requested list if I was scum? I'd ignore the request or do a half assed job at it.

7) Molach: the Street musician
one post struck me as odd:

Originally Posted by Molach
So if stick flips mafia then we should have a lot to work on tomorrow. And something as well if he is village - passive followers and such.
. That seemed like trying a bit hard to distance himself from the knowledge that thestick was indeed a wolf. I dont know - only 6 posts or so - not much to go off of.

post 698:

:
Originally Posted by Ichabod
Sorry to spam the thread, but post 200 by thestick is a very compelling evidence towards Mattimeo's innocence (I was starting to think his claim could have made to save him in detriment of the lesser power role in thestick). but that one post is very difficult to fit in a "Mattimeo is a wolf theory".

Was hoping you'd come back to that post. It's what makes it hard for me to doubt Mattimeo's innocence. That and the push on Matt which seemed an attempt to derail thestick's appt with the noose.

As scum, I'm damning myself here by jumping on with Ichabod in defending Mattimeo.

post 1744: so after earlier defending Matt with Ichabod, suddenly I decide that Day 1 starts to make a LOT of sense if Mattimeo is scum. I vote him and at one point am only voter on him.

post 1931 - calling out the lack of movement on catwalk's wagon during earlier day really rang village for me and gave me doubts about my vote. I move off of him to Qgqqqqqq. Why would i do that? If catwalk is village as we suspect - why switch at that time and grab attention for it?

post 2017: i do a re-reading of ALL Qgqqqqq posts. As I am posting it, he claims, basically rendering all of my work useless, but i post it anyway. I didn't fabricate a case! I admittedly put in there that the re-reading didn't give me a read.

post 2078: move back to Mattimeo - helping seal his fate. There's no way I put him in danger like that - he wasnt going to hang without the late movement. I pushed him all day - definitely not a "he's going down, lets bus him" play

post2125: cold feet on mattimeo as we are waiting for the deadline to eclipse. It seemed too easy.

--- im going to stop right there for now ---

I skipped a post:

post number: 2128 rb_post_id: 297693 poster: waterbat
TT already made the deciding vote, Molach.

why would i prevent Molach from trying to gain credit??

I think day 4 holds the answer for me:

checking the totals on the Mattimeo day, Novice was very confident that Mattimeo was not bussed. Take a look at this total:

[SIZE=large]DAY FOUR

Mattimeo - 8 - novice, Waterbat, Catwalk, Meiz, Ichabod, Rowain, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Qgqqqqq - 5 - Selrahc, tasunke, Gaspar, jkaen, Mattimeo
Injera - 2 - Qgqqqqq, Pindicator
Catwalk - 2 - Injera, Azza
Selrahc - 1 - Lewwyn

Arromirwas mod-killed for inactivity.

Qgqqqq was night-killed. Injera followed Azza with no result.

Later it was pointed out that Mattimeo could have been bussed because Molach was on him.... But as I POINTED OUT Molach didnt make the decision - it was already done. The answer is right there in day 4 tally: waterbat catwalk meiz very likely villagers.