WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Catwalk]

Catwalk - please explain your thinking in full.

If we agree to lynch Gaspar and he turns village, then what?

I outlined my suspicions of Gaspar earlier. To add to that: Gaspar seems much more guarded and precise with his posts than waterbat. I'm willing to accept waterbat's argument that villagers tend to ramble more, at least that holds true for myself. I tend to not filter my posts much, just say what comes to mind. I think wolves tend to be much more careful with what they say, as their objective is not being caught as opposed to discovering people's alignments.

It's mostly gut feel. I think both are scummy, but I'm more comfortable with Gaspar hanging. If he flips village and we're alive tomorrow, that means we're very lucky as I think it's highly likely there are two wolves left. If there's only a single wolf left and Gaspar is not it, my bet would most likely be waterbat tomorrow.

One thing just occurred to me, maybe my reasoning is wrong but hear me out:
If there are two wolves left and I'm villager, that logically means we're about to hang a villager unless waterbat is wolf and there's currently another wolf on him. If you believe my innocence is likely, it only makes sense to hang waterbat if you believe another wolf is still on him with 1h15m left. I'm not ruling out that possibility, but I don't consider it likely. I still think Gaspar is the better choice today and urge you and Meiz to switch votes. Both are scummy, but I can more easily see waterbat being a misguided and hyperactive villager than Gaspar being this disengaged and under the radar. Yes, I still think that you've mostly avoided suspicion.

Also, just found another scumtell on Gaspar. When I argued that he'd received very little suspicion all game (never been a serious lynch candidate), he counters with this:

Disagree I've received little suspicion, I've never been so close to being mislynched. I think I've gotten votes almost every day and I was a crusade target at varying points for Injera, Ichabod and novice. They all eventually backed off but particularly the day novice was heavy on me I thought I was toast.

Funny coincidence that he points to 3 villagers who were crusading him? That does absolutely nothing to disprove my point! I wasn't arguing that noone suspected him, I was arguing that he was receiving little suspicion. And from what I can tell, a tiny amount of the suspicion he received was from scum.

[waterbat]

read these quickly - there isnt much there:

http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww16/Gaspar.html
http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww16/Gaspar-2.html
http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww16/Gaspar-3.html

find a place where he's put any credible suspicion on anyone that turned out to be scum?

I dont find anything exculpatory in the voting records either - in fact the opposite:

Day 1: the 2 minutes past deadline vote of the thestick
zak's take:

Originally Posted by zakalwe
"I would never do that as a wolf" doesn't cut it, Gaspar. When it comes to you, especially, I will judge you by your actions, and not your words. The main reason I defended you yesterday was because I wanted to keep thestick's lynch on track. But looking at your play on day 1, you did an admirable job of supporting Novice and me, thus indirectly supporting thestick's lynch, while never actually stating outright that you suspected him. On the occasions where you could have interjected some more concrete opinions, you let the opportunity pass in favor of making generic low-content posts

Day2: Is on Ichabod with Lewwyn all day. Distancing himself from Lewwyn in the post where he votes Ichabod.
(post 909)

This ends up being the difference between Sareln and Pindicator ! In post 909, says "Sareln: definitely comes off innocent" and "Sareln: I think he's town", and "Pindicator: slight scum lean", but when it comes down to it - time to put someone to the lynch - would rather hang out on Ichabod.

Day 3: One of the last to push Merovech to the gallows

Day 4: As outlined before - avoided the Mattimeo wagon (pindicator, you didnt read my post on Day 4 - accusing me of not presenting any evidence, but then not reading the posts I do make is annoying at the least)

Day 5: Happily on Rowain

Day 6: on Meiz, but the crazy endgame muddled this water

Day 7: late on Molach. WOW! A WOLF HIT Too bad its after Lewwyn had already set up the bus on him. Plus Molach didnt fight back - further evidence it was pre-ordained result.

Day 8: On Azza (yes, i certainly now wish i was lynched that day - Im sure Azza would have stepped up today to fend off you fuckers)

Day 9: on Pindicator

Day 10: on Jkaen

[waterbat]

The other MAIN reason i am voting Gaspar. And I hesitate to even come out with this again because of the heat I got last time. I don't care though - i still say that it is a valid point.

Its catwalk, duh.

We are reasonably sure that ALL villagers must target a scum today, right?

At some point we need to line up. We have to pick someone we trust. I think its obvious that person has to be catwalk. so if you are a villager, you will align your vote with his. yes yes we lose if its catwalk, but we lose anyway if we arent aligned.

Please try to remove my apparent scumminess from your thinking when you consider this. Sure catwalk might be wrong and my fear is that by talking myself into 3 votes, the other villager hasnt had the desire/need to lobby catwalk in a different direction. That villager believes he's got a good target (me) and is satisfied.

[waterbat]

the other thing i expected when voting gaspar (along with catwalk): an early defense!

surely when we started this day meiz-pindicator was a possibility! i ruined it by talking my way into 3 votes i guess. Another failure on my part - as keeping quiet may have prompted gaspar to defend catwalk if he cared about losing this game as a villager.

[pindicator]

Okay, Gaspar it is

And here is my reasoning:

I do not think a Meiz / Waterbat is likely, because Meiz has been suspicious of waterbat since day 2. He's been voting for him every chance he could get, today included. He's also been suspicious of me since day 2.

I do not think Catwalk / Waterbat is possible because Catwalk has pretty much tied himself to a sinking Waterbat when he had so much village cred that all he had to do was vote waterbat and watch Meiz/Gaspar/me fight and destroy each other. In fact, this just reinforces the fact Catwalk is innocent in my eyes. Again, catwalk only needs to vote waterbat if he's teamed with anybody and nobody would think twice of it.

So the only 2-people combinations are Waterbat/Gaspar or Meiz/Gaspar.

And in my scum list, i would line them up the same way for what I put above (from most to least scmmy) Waterbat, Gaspar, Meiz, Catwalk

If Gaspar flips village then Waterbat goes tomorrow. Period. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. His play is awful, but the fact that he does nothing to advocate his suspect is not helping. In fact, if Gaspar flips scum then Waterbat still likely goes tomorrow, because a Gaspar/Waterbat combination is far more likely. Notice Waterbat keeps hinting at a Gaspar/Meiz duo (how else would he be mislynched for the win today?) but he tries to buddy up to Meiz. So i think it is far more likely we have a Gaspar/Waterbat duo that is attempting to distance than a Gaspar/Meiz duo.

[waterbat]

48 minutes. i just called off work for the next few hours - so i will be here (feeling sick) i wonder what kind of tell becoming physically ill over this would be? I suppose a null tell - i could be sick im going to lose or sick im going to lose

[pindicator]

That crossed with waterbat's posts, so my accusation of him not providing evidence is obviously less valid.

[Catwalk]

I'm pretty decided on Gaspar for today, but I think that you're digging your own grave with this line of reasoning waterbat. pindicator and Meiz both stated reservations about that approach.

I'm still lobbying for Gaspar, though. I think there is real evidence against him that cannot easily be explained by calling him a bad villager (he's anything but), whereas waterbat looks more and more like a confused/foot-in-mouth villager being set up for a mislynch. If there are two wolves left and one of them is Gaspar, I'm starting to lean towards the other one being Meiz or pindicator. More likely Meiz as pindicator has quite strong town cred. waterbat/Gaspar as scum is still a possibility, but I don't think waterbat's play last two days fits that.

[Meiz]

One thing just occurred to me, maybe my reasoning is wrong but hear me out:
If there are two wolves left and I'm villager, that logically means we're about to hang a villager unless waterbat is wolf and there's currently another wolf on him. If you believe my innocence is likely, it only makes sense to hang waterbat if you believe another wolf is still on him with 1h15m left. I'm not ruling out that possibility, but I don't consider it likely.

I've been thinking this, but here's the thing. Wolf could push a fellow wolf all day, but as long as there would be villager with one vote less, it would take 1 second switch in the end to seal the deal. Worst case scenario and wolf dies, another wolf still gains cover for it. I think both Pind and Gaspar could be potential partners with wb. But at this point I feel like I haven't seen enough incriminating evidence from Gaspar to put him over wb, and I really think he's the best bet today. Every time wb has been on block, he is on survival mode and I always get a feeling he doesn't look for the most wolfish player, just anyone but himself. He even bargained you earlier with promises for infinite vote on Azza, if you would not vote for him, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299863 . It makes most sense as a villager to find the scummiest player and convince others of their guilt, not play just to survive and vote anyone who's running for second. He now finally makes a case for Gaspar, after being prodded several times. But I have to wonder what the day would be if you'd picked me as your target today, Catwalk. Why do I think wb's vote would be against me at the moment?

I will vote Gaspar in the end if it stays this way, but I have a strong preference at hanging wb today...

//crossposted. Well, I gues it's set then...

[pindicator]

One thing about the bargaining, meiz. I did notice that when he posted it, but Waterbat also bargained like that in WW14 and i used it in a case against him (before rowain Chickened him)