The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

Two 4->2 whips there. And look at the top GNP - almost certainly an academy. It's worth at least 10 base beakers per turn, plus the culture.

I think we really need to focus on our expansion for some time now.

[kjn]

T69 - 1240BC

Cliff's Notes: Apolyton likely built an Academy last turn, causing the GNP to rise quite a bit. Judaism was founded in a city of size 3 or 4, probably by CFC. I have pencilled in Archery for Apolyton and Fishing for CivPlayers. 3 pop growths for the Germans, and one each for CivFr, CFC, and Univers.

Demos:

The score changes

Team	Change	Pop	Tech	Land	Wonders
RB	3	+1 (15)
Apolyton	6		Ancient tech
Germans	7	+3 (13)
CivFr	6	+1 (20)		4
CivPlayers	6		Ancient tech
CFC	9	+1 (12)	Ancient tech
WPC	2	+1 (20)

Need I say again that I'm real happy I did set up that land tracking sheet?

The Germans grew back 3 pop after their whips last turn, and CivFr, CFC, and Univers each grew 1 pop. Total population rose with 109000, rival best with 42000, and rival worst with 46000. That puts a growth from size 4 to size 5 on CivFr.

[('4->5', 42), ('3->4', 27), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]

There is no way that the Germans could gain exactly 46000 in population with 3 pop, which puts CFC as the new rival worst, likely growing Daivagasi from size 1 to size 2 in 6t. Univers has only size 1 and 3 cities, but the Germans need the growth to 4 to reach more than 82000, which means Univers grew their fifth city to size 2 in 8t.

That means the Germans grew a size 3 city to 4 and their two newly whipped cities back to 3.

Rival total power rose with 27000, of which 4000 came from pop. WPC increased their power with an additional 7000 - a totem pole and another dog, or a spear and a barracks or archer? That leaves 16000 for the other teams in units and tech.

Among the teams, Apolyton, CivPlayers, and CFC each researched an ancient tech, and are thus candidates for founding Judaism. By doing a GNP check I find that we have contact with one team that knows Masonry - I should have done that earlier, because all of our neighbours know both Mysticism and Mining.

There is another possible hint about Judaism: it has an influence of 2%. That means it was founded in a city of size 3 or 4. Apart from their capitals, Apolyton has cities of size 5, 4, and 3; CivPlayers of size 5, 4, and 2; and CFC of size 3 (or 4), 2, 2, and 1. All are candidates, but CFC seems the most likely from a pure holy city-determining standpoint.

CivPlayers can be eliminated, because they have a larger city, they have just finished a quite expensive beeline, and I only have two mystery techs assigned to them, on T43 and T51.

Apolyton is also quite unlikely. They have three mystery techs, but have just finished a classical tech, and would need to research Mysticism as well. They would have to skip techs like BW and Pottery to get to Monotheism.

Which leaves us with CFC. This means their GNP spikes a while back were due to researching Masonry, not Writing. They have four mystery techs, on T52, T57, T61, and T62. With a raw commerce of circa 25-30 they can manage to research Monotheism in 7t. This also explains how they got two techs back to back: they might have been researching Polytheism up until we founded the Hinduism on T51.

For now, I pencil in Archery for Apolyton and Fishing for CivPlayers.

Univers did a 1-pop whip directly after the turn rolled, but it seems Sullla didn't take his posted screen shot until after they did their whip. Can I please ask that anyone who logs in first in the turn takes a demos screen shot first thing? I'm going to have to revisit the population numbers now...

I also think there are more barb cities out there now, or that they have grown. Unknown pop is up to 4, but I have a suspicion that whips may bring the F8 pop percentage out of whack.

[kjn]

Assuming Sullla doesn't have a pre-whip demos screen shot, here are the alternatives for the Univers whip:

Growth / Whip	6 to 5	5 to 4	4 to 3	3 to 2	2 to 1
5 to 6	0	X	X	45	55
3 to 4	-33	-15	0	12	X
1 to 2	-55	-37	X	-10	0

Each of these changes would thus place 109 minus the listed value over 5 pop (the Germans * 3, CivFr, and CFC). The Germans need to grow at least one city to size 4 and one to size 3 in order to reach at least 82000 in population, too.

164: [('5->6', 60), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5)]

Contradicted. CivFr has a size 5 city, but the Germans don't have a size 4 city.

146: three possible solutions:

[('6->7', 82), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]
[('5->6', 60), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('1->2', 5)]
[('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5)]

All are contradicted. The first involves a size 7 city. The second requires three size 3 cities, and we have only two among the candidates. The third requires a size 4 city for the Germans to begin with.

142: [('6->7', 82), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15)]

Contradicted. Involves a size 7 city listed, and not enough size 2 candidates..

124: two possible solutions

[('6->7', 82), ('3->4', 27), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]
[('5->6', 60), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]

Both contradicted. First involves a size 7 city and has no size 2 city growing, the second doesn't have the required growth of a size 2 city for the Germans.

119: [('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5)]

Contradicted. No size 3 city that grows for the Germans.

109: [('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]

Contradicted. No size 3 city that grows for the Germans.

97, 64, 54, 44: No solutions.

So all the possible whips and growths here are contradicted And Sullla didn't get the demos in time - he only noted the whip on log out. Nothing to be done about it, now, unless someone else wants to take a stab at a solution.

Going at it from another angle:

CivFr becomes rival best by growing a size 4 city to size 5. CFC reaches the value of rival worst by growing size 1 city to size 2. That leaves 62000 for the Germans and whatever amount Univers managed to grow and whip. The Germans grow with either 47000 (3->4, 2->3, 1->2) or 57000 (3->4, 2 * 2->3), leaving 15000 and 5000 to Univers respectively. But I can still find no solution.

[kjn]

Going at it some more, I think I must have done an incorrect assignment to Univers somewhere. They can get a net of 15000 in population from a pop growth and a whip if they have two size 4 cities, one growing to 5 and one whipped to 3 (+42 -27).

But that would require they have cities of size 6-4-4-3-2-1, and not 6-5-3-3-2-1 as it is in my notes.

Also, CFC can be confirmed as having researched Monotheism: they have adopted Judaism as their state religion.

[kjn]

CivFr performed a 2-pop whip, going 4->2 in one of their cities. New demos:

[kjn]

I'm away from civ until late tomorrow night, and WPC just settled a city. Can someone grab the demos?

[Sullla]

Here you go:



New turn almost ready.

[kjn]

Thanks!

[Sullla]

Scumbag German team whipped a city with 5 minutes left, but I was watching CivStats:



Your douchebaggery will not avail you!

Here is the new turn:

[mostly_harmless]

kjn, after the war declaration WPC must have killed a German unit.
Soldier average points have dropped by 2000.

mh