The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

Wasn't it 10 last turn?

No, that was T71, and we haven't had any action since then from what I have seen.

[kjn]

Here are the graphs showing the progress of us, WPC, the Germans, and CFC as of the start of T72.

GNP:



Each horizontal line is circa 4.5 GNP.

Production:



Each horizontal line is circa 1.4 hammers.

Food:



Each horizontal line is circa 3.35 food.

Power:



Each horizontal line is circa 4900 power.

Culture:



Total culture output. Our revolt to Hinduism is readily visible, and it's possible to see WPC's revolt to Slavery.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

The Germans were quite active this turn, as m_h noted:

Ie, they whipped away 3 pop (5->3 and 2->1); rival best in power fell from 99000 to 93000; and rival total power fell with 18000 once pop loss is factored in. WPC's war weariness increased from 8 to 14.

Wismar was the city whipped back to size 1. It has 38H invested right now, almost certainly an axe or maybe a chariot.

Thus, the Germans lost 12000 in power and WPC 6000 over three fights in German territory: two WPC victories and one German victory. And they're logged in again, so the combats may continue.

Yes. Yessss....

[kjn]

T74 - 1040BC

Cliff's Notes: WPC grew to 13 pop. The Spanish received land points. The Germans grew to 12 pop (+3!). CivFr received land points, grew to 22 pop, and researched a classical tech, tentatively Iron Working. CivPlayers grew to 19 pop. CFC researched an ancient tech, tentatively Writing. Univers grew to 21 pop.

Demos:

Lots of things happening this turn. Eight score increases including ours, rival global power rose with 30000, 16 newly claimed land tiles, and a rival total population increase of 338,000. Note also the large drop in average GNP, of circa 24.

Team	Score increase	Pop	Tech	Land	Wonders
RB	5	5 (+2 pop; 22 total)
WPC	2	2 (+1 pop; 13 total)
Spanish	5			5
Germans	8	8 (+3; 12 total)
CivFr	21	5 (+2 pop; 22 total)	12 (classical)	4
CivPlayers	5	5 (+2 pop; 19 total)
CFC	6		6 (ancient)
Univers	3	3 (+1 pop; 22 total)

I think I'm going to need every trick in the book here , and then some. Lets start with the city screen:

We're the first team with two cities in the top five!

But this gives our first hint: CivFr has grown their capital to size 7. That leaves 60000 for them to reach the new rival top, so they get a growth 5->6 as well. That leaves 12 points for them, ie a classical tech, since they received 4 land points.

That leaves us with 196000 over 7 cities, which has the following solutions:

[('6->7', 82), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]
[('6->7', 82), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15)]
[('5->6', 60), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('3->4', 27), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]

We can discard the first two, since another size 7 city likely would show up in the top cities screen. We also know that the Germans must reach at least 75000 in population (making the Spanish the new rival worst at 75000). I think the most likely solution for the Germans are their cities growing to size 4, 3, and 2, giving them a new population of 82000. Wismar is still size 1 after repeated whips, so their newest city of Wilhelmshaven grew to size 2 in 6t. This also leaves us with a single solution for the remaining four cities:

[('5->6', 60), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('1->2', 5)]

However, there are several ways to distribute this, so precise city size tracking is off now.

CivFr researched a classical tech in 4t and CFC an ancient tech in 5t. I think CivFr went for a single-discounted tech since they didn't drop below us in GNP (we were #3 on both T73 and T74), and with the large increase in power I note down a tentative Iron Working. For CFC I note down Writing.

The increase of 30000 in power would thus come to 20000 once tech was accounted for, and 4000 would come from pop (2000 to the Germans and 1000 each to CivFr and CivPlayers). I wouldn't be surprised if the Germans had whipped units late last turn, either.

[kjn]

Ie, they whipped away 3 pop (5->3 and 2->1); rival best in power fell from 99000 to 93000; and rival total power fell with 18000 once pop loss is factored in. WPC's war weariness increased from 8 to 14.
Thus, the Germans lost 12000 in power and WPC 6000 over three fights in German territory: two WPC victories and one German victory. And they're logged in again, so the combats may continue.

Yes. Yessss....

There are some issues with the above analysis.

First is that WPC had a WW of 10, not 8, when the turn started (as I saw when I checked the historical values), which only gives room for two combats. Second, the Germans actually managed to reach power parity with WPC (per the graphs) on the start of T72, so we can't be sure who came out the better in the exchange.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

That leaves us with 196000 over 7 cities, which has the following solutions:

[('6->7', 82), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]
[('6->7', 82), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15), ('2->3', 15)]
[('5->6', 60), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('3->4', 27), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]

We can discard the first two, since another size 7 city likely would show up in the top cities screen. We also know that the Germans must reach at least 75000 in population (making the Spanish the new rival worst at 75000). I think the most likely solution for the Germans are their cities growing to size 4, 3, and 2, giving them a new population of 82000. Wismar is still size 1 after repeated whips, so their newest city of Wilhelmshaven grew to size 2 in 6t. This also leaves us with a single solution for the remaining four cities:

[('5->6', 60), ('4->5', 42), ('4->5', 42), ('1->2', 5)]

If we haven't said it enough, you have been nothing short of amazing this game kjn.

[kjn]

T75 - 1000 BC

Cliff's Notes: The Germans push military production hard. The Spanish grew to 10 pop, the Germans to 13, CivPlayers to 20, CFC to 17, and Univers to 23. There is a marked rise of rival average GNP.

Demos:

No land points this turn, but five new pop points as per the F8 screen, one each for the Spanish (up to 10 pop), the Germans (13), CivPlayers (20), CFC (17), and Univers (23).

Average GNP rose markedly (+8, or circa 64 over all the teams), implying that the growth likely went onto prepared cottages and probably also that several culture or science buildings have been completed.

Rival top in soldiers went from 105000 to 117000, a rise of 12000 or probably 2 axes. Per the graph the Germans passed WPC in power last turn, so it's them. Rival total power rose with only 17000, of which 2000 came from pop, which leaves 3000 in power for the rest of the teams.

A city has expanded borders, and claimed 7 land tiles. It's also unknown which team, except that it's not the Spanish, the Germans, or CivFr.

No military actions between WPC and the Germans last turn: no power losses, and WPC's war weariness shrank from 13 to 12.

[kjn]

Apolyton settled their fifth city this turn, claiming 7 land tiles and making them the new rival top in land area. This also means that they must have expanded borders on at least one more city.

Top GNP dropped quite markedly, and it was probably Apolyton needing to stockpile gold. I also think Apolyton just edged us out for the second place in food production with their new city. However, they are butting up against their happiness limit quite hard, since rival worst in approval rate rose from 50% to 51% with theit new city.

[kjn]

Univers did a 1-pop whip on T75 before ending their turn, in a size 3 city.

More interesting is that the German-WPC war turned hot again.

War Weariness for WPC is up to 15 (was 12 at start of turn), while it's still 0 for the Germans, ie the battles were in German land. Rival best in power went from 117000 to 99000 (ie it fell with 18000), and the rival total also fell with 18000.

This means that I think the Germans attacked and lost all their three attacking axes. I'm also pretty sure that the Germans haven't got horses online, otherwise they wouldn't have asked for our War Chariots or had the losses they've had. And the Germans are in pretty big trouble now - they've whipped their cities to the bone, but has just lost a big chunk of their army while WPC's dogs should have a big qualitative edge by now.

That said, I doubt WPC has the killer instinct to really try to knock the Germans out at this stage. But I wouldn't be surprised if Wismar fell to WPC in a turn or two.

[Lewwyn]

I doubt that Germans would just be throwing axes away at bad ods so there must be some lousy RNG rolls in there.