WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Azza]

Lewwyn, don't think that I've forgotten about Zak. I just want to hear from MJW first about his late vote.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, don't think that I've forgotten about Zak. I just want to hear from MJW first about his late vote.

Ok. It was just weird how everyone moved to MJW. MJW also was happy to accept and reinforce that Qg was working alone so I can see the concern.

[Tasunke]

Official Lynch Tally

MJW(3) - Zakalwe, Selrahc, Azza
Zakalwe(1) - Lewwyn

[Lewwyn]

I was just going back over the Talley because I wanted to see what Ichabod was up to. He was voting for waterbat and I think in this case where the voting was so close and so many different scum teams its clear that Ichabod didn't know Qg was scum and waterbat wasn't on his team. Given that suspicion was even throughout waterbat and Qg would have been equally useful patsy's for the white wolves. I think Waterbat is either innocent or the SK, and so far in my reading Waterbat hasn't seemed like the SK or like he's playing with something to hide.

So waterbat, who do you suspect? I'm interested to hear your opinion as someone I currently trust.

[Lewwyn]

I was just going back through the old WW SS for fun and realized that wolves have won 9 games and village has won 8... The recent trend towards wolf wins is overwhelming. I blame myself for last game.

[waterbat]

Thanks Lewwyn, but i need to work harder. This reminds me of prior villager experience - once i thought it was obvious enough i wasnt scum, i slacked off. Then in the endgame pressure came out of nowhere, i didnt know how to deal with it and pindicator killed me. damn u pindicatorrrrrrrr!

i too think zak has a very high probability of being scum. Others have drawn that conclusion for good reason.
I suspected pindicator over Ichybod - so that shows where my radar is this game. Well, it worked on Qgqqqqq, so maybe i dont give myself enough credit!

Im very willing to look at other areas first Lewwyn.

[Serdoa]

1. Lewwyn, can you please stop trying to hand out "innocent" to others just because a coincidence happened? Last game should have learned you that even someone who's play makes no sense as a wolf can be a wolf.

2. MJW is an interesting target as I feel it is quite obvious by his post why he switched. I'll let him do the explaining though. But still, he is THE mislynching target as well all know AND he certainly gave an opening with his late switch.

3. But ... you guys noticed that zakalwe was also on waterbat yes?

In general: I know MJW is a great target because it is easy, just point at his late switch and be done with it. Easy and no work involved. But there are much better cases available right now, not the least the one on zakalwe I already built yesterday which he has defended against with "yeah, well, I thought Q to be innocent". uberfish asked the right question, which I didn't see answered yet: zak, what made you think that Q is innocent, just after 2-3 posts of his in this thread?

zakalwe

[Lewwyn]

1. Lewwyn, can you please stop trying to hand out "innocent" to others just because a coincidence happened? Last game should have learned you that even someone who's play makes no sense as a wolf can be a wolf.

Fine. But I still have a village lean on Waterbat now. I did say that he could be the SK. In any case I do still want to hear what he has to say.

[Lewwyn]

Ichabod posted this just before night deadline:

Well, a 1-2-2-11 setup would explain why Zakalwe would defend Qgqqqq so much, if he is indeed his teammate. Assuming Zak and Qgqqqq knew there were other bad factions (at least the SK was obvious, since it was in the rules), losing Qgqqqq would mean a likely defeat, because Zak is often targetted by nightkills and role scans. So, saving Qgqqqq was very important, almost an absolute for their team to win.

Lot of shaky premises in this thought, but I think is easier to justify a big defense by a scum buddy with a 2-men team setup than with a larger team. Especially considering Zakalwe's situation.

We now know he was a member of the Wolf scum pack. So he knew for a fact what the setup was. We also know that he was as interested in hunting the other pack of scum as villager. If that's so he is possibly setting up going after Zak whom he apparently suspects or is trying to set up to be mislynched.

I went into this post trying to figure out what Ichabod's motivations were for posting it and I think I'm coming out of it just as confused. Possibly because Ichabod doesn't know for sure whether Zak is scum or not. The one thing I am sure of is that Ichabod is being very vague about where he thinks the current thoughts on the setup is right or not. Which supports Ichabod's scum MO of being vaguer than normal. I also think he might be trying to leave it open in case Qg's scumbuddy is caught. Doing so allows him to try and point out others who might be connected to Qg.

Crap, I suddenly don't think there's anything to learn here. It's just Ichabod sowing confusion.

[waterbat]

Did my own reading of Ichabod:

1) initially votes Pindicator
2) Catches Bigger voting for Pindicator for mayor when Bigger meant for lynch.


4) A good one:

My Pindicator vote was based on the fact that I didn't like his Zakalwe vote for mayor.

This sounds like subtle distancing.

Perhaps Zak is not part of the QgQQQQQ's team, but he is on Ichabod's team? well -- he doesnt come right out and say he thinks zak is scummy.

Serdoa also suspected Ichabod at this time.

5) Interesting that MJW jumps in to discredit Serdoa's case on QgQQQQ and ichabod follows right up on it. v A wolf-pack of two wouldnt do that. but MJW could easily be QgQQQQQ's partner in this scenario. That fits with zak being Ichy's.

6) takes issue with my posts only after Rowain starts the case. i think i've proven that I dont know how to play this game non-suspiciously, but since he had a cheat sheet and was lying. I think Ichabod just wanted to get someone else up on the block

7) yesterday with 8 hours to go, he finally places the vote on me. It wasnt a landslide yet, but became one.

8) post lynch:

Well, a 1-2-2-11 setup would explain why Zakalwe would defend Qgqqqq so much, if he is indeed his teammate. Assuming Zak and Qgqqqq knew there were other bad factions (at least the SK was obvious, since it was in the rules), losing Qgqqqq would mean a likely defeat, because Zak is often targetted by nightkills and role scans. So, saving Qgqqqq was very important, almost an absolute for their team to win.

Lot of shaky premises in this thought, but I think is easier to justify a big defense by a scum buddy with a 2-men team setup than with a larger team. Especially considering Zakalwe's situation.

interesting. again i cant tell if this is distancing, or preparing to get some cred if zak does turn up on QgQQQQs team.


Also re-read pindicator - but there's nothing in his posts. I'm glad i re-read - i missed his answer to my direct question - who of the q-voters did he suspect. His second suspect was Mattimeo - how could he fit in?


-----

You asked me who i suspect, if i had to absolutely make a game-ending prediction right at this moment based on a 11-2-2-1 setup, it would be:

MJW -> hunter
Zakalwe -> wolf
Mattimeo -> dragon (but im really unsure here)


Other players left:
Azza
Bigger
Lewwyn
Rowain
Selrahc
Serdoa
slowcheetah