The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[spacetyrantxenu]

Waterbat, running the Realms Beyond NSA since March 2012.

How are those wiretaps coming, almost got them in place? That's some nice number digging. I would feel bad about the level of information we have about this game (and the likely information lead we probably have), except we voted to NOT use a mod. We didn't voluntarily open Pandora's box but hey, may as well use what we can right? I can't wait until the first time we get to use this information in a fun way, like during diplomatic negotiations and someone bluffs us and we pull out charts Ross Perot style calling the bluff, etc.

Are there any other features of the APTmod website that are only visible to our registered team leader? I wonder if there is any other information available we can abuse inspect further.

[kjn]

Sitting down with Waterbat's excellent tool right now to try to extract some interesting data for us. This will take some time, but I think we can get quite a bit out of it.

I doubt I will use it every turn, but it remembers the state of all previous turns, so that's no big deal. And it will help us get a better idea of the state of the other teams that we don't have graphs on, too.

[mostly_harmless]

Here the latest demo screenshot, after the Germans logged in and did stuff.

Lysander, the Great General is mentioned in the game log.

We are 2nd in power now, and WPC's WW has climbed to 31!!!
I guess German chariots have seen some action.

mh

[Sullla]

Wow, it's almost like I predicted that WPC would get cleaned up by the Germans last week!

[waterbat]

Sitting down with Waterbat's excellent tool right now to try to extract some interesting data for us. This will take some time, but I think we can get quite a bit out of it.

I doubt I will use it every turn, but it remembers the state of all previous turns, so that's no big deal. And it will help us get a better idea of the state of the other teams that we don't have graphs on, too.

thx kjn - also it is going to become much more useful for backfilling C&D information after we meet all the teams.
Also - you won't have to do graphical analysis on the demo-graphs - the data is there.

[kjn]

The proper analysis of the APTmod data will have to wait a bit, but here's the latest from the war front.

At the start of T81, WPC had a war weariness of 16. Now they have a war weariness of 31, ie a change of +15.

During WPC's half of the turn, they attacked and killed German units of a combined power value of 12000. This would give either +4 (two axes killed) or +6 (three spears/chariots killed) in war weariness, leaving 11 or 9 for the rest of the combats.

During the German half of the timer, they attacked and killed WPC units of a combined power value of 30000, and lost 4000 themselves. The WPC defensive victory would give a war weariness of 1, leaving 10 or 8 for the 30000 in power loss (five respective four combats).

That means the total losses this turn are:

	German losses	WPC losses	Note
WPC attack	2 axes		12000 in power; +4 WPC WW
German attack	1 chariot	5 dogs	4000 / 30000 in power; +11 WPC WW

The WPC power is down to 81000, and their power from tech and pop is tentatively 34000, leaving 47000 for units (and buildings), ie they've lost a fair chunk of their field army. But they still have plenty of units and un-whipped relatively large cities, so I doubt they will lose any of them if they set out to make a decent defense.

That said, here are the total losses of each team since the war started, as far as I can tell:

Type	German	WPC
Warrior (2000)	1
Worker	2
Axeman/Dog soldier (6000)	8	8
Spearman/Chariot (400)	2
Sum	58000	48000

Ie, WPC has still had a pretty favourable exchange ratio since the war started, especially when one considers the two captured workers and the razed city.

[mostly_harmless]

Is 31WW resulting in unhappy citizens already?

mh

[kjn]

Doubt it. War weariness first gets multiplied by the size of the city (say 7), which gives 200. But then it is divided by a flat 200, divided by 2 because this is a multiplayer game, and divided by 2 again because the map is huge. So they have plenty of room left still, I think.

[mostly_harmless]

Ok, thanks.

mh

[kjn]

Analysing the T81 APTmod data - Culture

Thanks to Waterbat and the APTmod I now have a wealth of data to work with, and it will take some time to properly analyse it. Better to make it in small chunks. First up is analysing the raw culture generation. The graphs show the values for us, WPC, the Germans, CivFr (rival max up until T80), and CFC, and I thus have data for them. Note that we will probably lose data from CivFr from now on, since we are the new max here.

Also, the turn numbers might differ here, and can diff slightly in some cases.

RB

T46: +0 culture - revolt to Slavery
T50: +5 delta - found Hinduism
T53: +1 delta - Hinduism in FP
T54: +1 delta - rounding error?
T55: +10 delta - Stonehenge
T57: +1 delta - found HF
T69: +0 culture - revolt to Hinduism
T70: +1 delta - settled GM
T71: +1 delta - settled TH
T73: +2 delta - Library in TH
T79: +1 delta - Hinduism in HF
T80: +1 delta - settled ST

WPC

T57: revolt to Slavery
T71: +1 delta - totem pole?
T73: +1 delta - totem pole?
T74: +1 delta - totem pole?

Germans

T55: +4 delta - 2 terraces
T56: +2 delta - 1 terrace
T60: +2 delta - 1 terrace
T71: +2 delta - 1 terrace

CivFr

T27: +2 delta - settled city B
T43: +2 delta - settled city C
T47: +0 culture - revolt to Slavery
T49: +2 delta - settled city D
T62: +2 delta - Library?
T63: +2 delta - Library?
T69: +2 delta - Library?
T71: +2 delta - settled city D
T73: +0 culture - revolt?!?
T78: +2 delta - settled city E

CFC

T68: +5 delta - found Judaism
T69: +1 delta - Judaism spread / monument?
T76: +1 delta - Judaism spread / monument?

Other

T56: revolt
T71: +2 delta - Library? Monuments?

So, what are the conclusions that can be drawn here?

First, every team generates at least +4 cpt per turn right now, either via CRE, libraries, religions, terraces, or monuments.

WPC has three totem poles up, so will generate highly promoted archers and also melee units. If they can produce a decent number of defenders the Germans will have trouble invading.

The Germans has a terrace in each of their cities.

CivFr I'm more than a little unsure about, but I think they've done two revolts (but what would the second revolt be to?), and also built three libraries. They did whips on T63 and T69, so that fits with getting cheap libraries on those turns.

CFC probably has spread Judaism to three of their cities.