January 12th, 2013, 07:12
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WTF Lewwyn.
Don't waste an investigate on me. I'm town, have never been mislynched except for one game where I trolled d1, and scum will almost certainly night kill me at some point - because, to be blunt, why would they want me in endgame when they can fill it with the same players that messed it up in WW17.
Why should the vigilante even shoot at all? If he shoots wrong we go into the next day 6/2 with one mislynch left. If he shoots correctly we go into the next day 7/1 with two mislynches left. If he doesn't shoot at all we go into the next day 7/2 with two mislynches left.
We have anywhere from 2-4 players who are confirmable tomorrow based on vigilante/seer (original item holders, current seer, current seer target.) We have a loose bomb that's now allegedly in the hands of a totally random player. We have the vigilante being forced to pass the gun if he shoots and even if he hands it to a villager the scum could still get it randomly if they nightkilled him. Shooting carries huge risks for very little gain. We should just lynch.
If the scum end up killing the bomb holder and blowing themselves up so that we're on an even number of players during day - THEN the vigilante has an argument for shooting because a miss would not cause us to lose a mislynch.
So lewwyn - you have the nerve to call me scum for stating good and safe strategy in a way that gives no information to scum? While you yourself fish for the location of the bomb from waterbat and try to direct power roles? Welcome to the suspect list.
January 12th, 2013, 07:31
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In case you read uberfish's post vig. I have to point his math is wrong. This is because when an item is usless it is removed from the game. Like Serdoa's vest and my tommy gun. So the chances of villager randomly getting your vig gun go up.
I'm too lazy to think about the metagame issues about who to kill. I'll just say a good target may be Zak because he would have a hard to avoiding getting lyched.
January 12th, 2013, 07:34
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(January 12th, 2013, 07:31)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: In case you read uberfish's post vig. I have to point his math is wrong. This is because when an item is usless it is removed from the game. Like Serdoa's vest and my tommy gun. So the chances of villager randomly getting your vig gun go up.
I'm too lazy to think about the metagame issues about who to kill. I'll just say a good target may be Zak because he would have a hard to avoiding getting lyched.
'No-one' is included about who to kill. Lastly, the seer may scry uberfish but I doubt anyone would be silly enough to scry Zak.
January 12th, 2013, 07:53
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The only maths part of my post concerns number of mislynches and it's correct. MJW I don't understand your argument that a villager would have a higher chance of getting the gun. It's random according to brick and he didn't say anything about that random roll taking into account whether the player already had an item or not.
Better that we lynch zak, because if he is town he might be able to prove it
January 12th, 2013, 07:57
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(January 12th, 2013, 07:53)uberfish Wrote: The only maths part of my post concerns number of mislynches and it's correct. MJW I don't understand your argument that a villager would have a higher chance of getting the gun. It's random according to brick and he didn't say anything about that random roll taking into account whether the player already had an item or not.
Better that we lynch zak, because if he is town he might be able to prove it
1. What I am saying is that there are fewer items in the game then what you say. When an item is useless it is removed from the game. The tommy gun and the vest are no longer in the game. Fewer items in the hands of villagers increase random.org chances of handing a 'random item' to the village.
2. No he won't be able to prove he's town. If he could he would prove it tonight he would to avoid a possible vig shot.
January 12th, 2013, 08:09
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(January 12th, 2013, 07:57)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: (January 12th, 2013, 07:53)uberfish Wrote: The only maths part of my post concerns number of mislynches and it's correct. MJW I don't understand your argument that a villager would have a higher chance of getting the gun. It's random according to brick and he didn't say anything about that random roll taking into account whether the player already had an item or not.
Better that we lynch zak, because if he is town he might be able to prove it
1. What I am saying is that there are fewer items in the game then what you say. When an item is useless it is removed from the game. The tommy gun and the vest are no longer in the game. Fewer items in the hands of villagers increase random.org chances of handing a 'random item' to the village.
2. No he won't be able to prove he's town. If he could he would prove it tonight he would to avoid a possible vig shot.
1. Brick never said the random handout was influenced by who already had an item.
2. No one should be claiming anything during night phase! This is our seer scan night and we don't want to give scum ANY information that might help them kill the seer.
January 12th, 2013, 08:15
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(January 12th, 2013, 07:12)uberfish Wrote: Don't waste an investigate on me. I'm town, have never been mislynched except for one game where I trolled d1, and scum will almost certainly night kill me at some point - because, to be blunt, why would they want me in endgame when they can fill it with the same players that messed it up in WW17.
You really don't want to be scanned do you? Sounds a bit desperate. But listen, you are under heavy suspicion I would say. I believe the two top lynch targets for tomorrow should be you and Zak. Why shouldn't we scan you then and prove your innocence if you are so? You voted to lynch Mero. In a highly suspect way saying:
(January 8th, 2013, 16:24)uberfish Wrote: Merovech is a good lynch too
Also neither you nor Zak have voted for Selrahc until late on Day 3. So yeah Uber, you're on my suspect list and I should think you're on several other people's as well. Wouldn't you rather be scanned than lynched?
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
January 12th, 2013, 08:25
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(January 12th, 2013, 08:09)uberfish Wrote: (January 12th, 2013, 07:57)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: (January 12th, 2013, 07:53)uberfish Wrote: The only maths part of my post concerns number of mislynches and it's correct. MJW I don't understand your argument that a villager would have a higher chance of getting the gun. It's random according to brick and he didn't say anything about that random roll taking into account whether the player already had an item or not.
Better that we lynch zak, because if he is town he might be able to prove it
1. What I am saying is that there are fewer items in the game then what you say. When an item is useless it is removed from the game. The tommy gun and the vest are no longer in the game. Fewer items in the hands of villagers increase random.org chances of handing a 'random item' to the village.
2. No he won't be able to prove he's town. If he could he would prove it tonight he would to avoid a possible vig shot.
1. Brick never said the random handout was influenced by who already had an item.
2. No one should be claiming anything during night phase! This is our seer scan night and we don't want to give scum ANY information that might help them kill the seer.
1. Well I misunderstood your argument then. I thought you're arguement was much stronger but its just okay now. Due to the fact that I tried to pass my tommy gun; the PM from brick made me think that people who don't have items cannot randomly get them. Brick can you say if a person who already has an item can randomly get one?
2. Getting vigged is pretty bad. It kills an innoccent and wastes a shot. It's so high that even if Zak has the board it is worth it for him to claim a shot to force the wolfs to nightkill him not the town to lych him.
January 12th, 2013, 08:32
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I was in the middle of a post, but it really doesn't matter I guess. I mean I think I'm talking to scum so I don't see the point in trying to convince you of anything.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
January 12th, 2013, 08:42
Posts: 4,471
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Joined: Feb 2006
MJW yeah a town getting vigged is a disaster which is why the vig shouldn't risk it.
And yes Lewwyn, I am really that confident of defending myself as town without being scanned innocent. If you think that as scum I'd save selrahc on d2 when he wasn't doing anything to save himself, only to bus him on d3... then LOL
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