The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

APTmod shows no power loss this turn. WPC's war weariness has shrunk steadily with 1 per turn since T81 (when the Germans probably killed five of their dog soldiers in their land).

So no combats as far as I know.

[kjn]

The T87 Military Sitation

How strong are the militaries of the other teams right now? Thanks to APTmod data, I have very good data on our neighbouring teams, except CivPlayers. But first, some ground values:

The grand total of rival power is 684,000. Of that, we know the exact power for WPC, the Germans, and CFC.

WPC has a power of 101,000.

The Germans has a power of 149,000.

CFC has a power of 71,000. These three thus leave 363,000 for the rest of the three five teams.

Of the 363,000, 61,000 is used up by pop alone, and 126,000 by the estimated techs for each team. That leaves 176,000 for units over the five teams, which comes to 35,200 on average.

Now, lets break down the power values of our three neighbours:

WPC - 101,000

Pop: 8000
Tech: 22000
City improvements: 9000
Units: 62000

The units are, tentatively, 4 archers, 6 dog soldiers, 3 spearmen, and a warrior.

The Germans - 149,000

Pop: 8000
Tech: 18000
City improvements: 15000
Units: 108000

The units are, tentatively, 10 axemen, 7 chariots, 1 spearman, and 8 warriors.

CFC - 71,000

Pop: 13000
Tech: 24000
City improvements: 0
Units: 34000

The units are, tentatively, 4 axemen and 5 warriors.

The Unknown Teams

Note how closely CFC's unit power comes to the average power over the five teams. The same is true for the pop and tech values, too. Thus, I really doubt any of the unknown teams are running a significantly larger military than CFC right now. We are talking about half a dozen each of axes and warriors, no more than that, likely less.

In comparison with the teams not at war, we are running a strong military, with a total power of 52000. We also have lots of pop and cities for emergency whipping.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

The T87 Military Sitation

How strong are the militaries of the other teams right now? Thanks to APTmod data, I have very good data on our neighbouring teams, except CivPlayers. But first, some ground values:

The grand total of rival power is 684,000. Of that, we know the exact power for WPC, the Germans, and CFC.

WPC has a power of 101,000.

The Germans has a power of 149,000.

CFC has a power of 71,000. These three thus leave 363,000 for the rest of the three five teams.

Of the 363,000, 61,000 is used up by pop alone, and 126,000 by the estimated techs for each team. That leaves 176,000 for units over the five teams, which comes to 35,200 on average.

Now, lets break down the power values of our three neighbours:

WPC - 101,000

Pop: 8000
Tech: 22000
City improvements: 9000
Units: 62000

The units are, tentatively, 4 archers, 6 dog soldiers, 3 spearmen, and a warrior.

The Germans - 149,000

Pop: 8000
Tech: 18000
City improvements: 15000
Units: 108000

The units are, tentatively, 10 axemen, 7 chariots, 1 spearman, and 8 warriors.

CFC - 71,000

Pop: 13000
Tech: 24000
City improvements: 0
Units: 34000

The units are, tentatively, 4 axemen and 5 warriors.

The Unknown Teams

Note how closely CFC's unit power comes to the average power over the five teams. The same is true for the pop and tech values, too. Thus, I really doubt any of the unknown teams are running a significantly larger military than CFC right now. We are talking about half a dozen each of axes and warriors, no more than that, likely less.

In comparison with the teams not at war, we are running a strong military, with a total power of 52000. We also have lots of pop and cities for emergency whipping.

Thanks for this analysis. I consider this pretty much case closed on the debate for more than "organic" unit production and continuing our economic expansion. We are in no danger whatsoever, short of WPC and Team Germany immediately sending their armies at us, which is simply not going to happen.

[kjn]

T88 - 675 BC

Cliff's Notes: Land points to the Germans, CFC, and Univers. WPC is up to 19 pop (+2), the Spanish to 19 (+1), Apolyton to 24 (+2), CivFr to 31 (+1), CFC to 29 (+2), and Univers to 33 (+2). CFC has increased their unit power with 4000, tentatively noted down as a spearman for now.

Demos:

F8 analysis shows 10 pop growths this turn. The rival global power rose modestly, with 8000, and no changes to the min and max values or our ranking there. The population rose with 394000. A border expansion claimed 7 land tiles.

Land point analysis gives 1 point to the Germans and 6 each to CFC and Univers (for the cities of Lana and Univers' F city), and there are no unassigned land tiles from T68. The remaining score increases all fits neatly with pop increases, and comes to 10 total.

WPC grew 2 pop, and are up to 19 total. The Spanish grew 1 pop, and are up to 19 too. Apolyton grew 2 pop, up to 24. CivFr has grown their second city to size 9 (visible in top cities screen), and are up to 31 pop. CFC grew 2 pop, one of them in Raj (up to size 2), and are up to 29 pop. Univers grew 2 pop, up to 33. That means that power increase from pop was 4000 this turn, leaving 4000 to units and buildings.

Thanks to Sullla's scouting, we now have visibility on Mantra (size 4, granary and monument). APTmod also tells us that CFC increased their power with 5000 this turn (1000 from pop), I'm assigning a spearman to them for now. CFC has also increased their total culture production from +12 to +13 as of T87, probably from spreading Judaism to another city.

APTmod espionage data shows that CivPlayers has built a second courthouse (they get +8 EP per turn), and that they performed a revolt last turn (no increase shown this turn).

[Sullla]

kjn, CFC actually built a chariot and not a spearman. I saw it in one of their cities when I moved the scout at the start of the turn. (This means that CivFanatics does have horses connected somewhere.) Obviously there was no way for you to know this. Hope that helps.

[kjn]

WPC settled their fifth city, Great Plains, claiming 9 land tiles. They are up to 20 pop now, in 5 cities. They took no detectable military action (no power losses, no change in war weariness).

Demos:

With several cities settled recently (the last ten turns) I can also re-visit the management of early cities again. We settled Seven Tribes on T80, and Forbidden Fruit on T83. Both are up to size 2 now, ST on T86 and FF on T87. How has the other teams done?

We have exact population data on CivFr, and decent on CivPlayers. CivFr's latest cities were settled on T71 and T78, and they are now size 2 and 1 - unclear which is which. One grew to size 2 earlier, but was whipped back to 1 on T87. In comparison, we settled Tree Huggers on T71, and it's up to size 4 by now, despite having to start growth with a plains cow.

CFC settled Raj on T78, and it grew to 2 this very turn, ie it has been growing on a 2F surplus so far. The sizes of Lana (T68) and Lakshmi (T80) are presently unknown, but have a total of 5.

[kjn]

kjn, CFC actually built a chariot and not a spearman. I saw it in one of their cities when I moved the scout at the start of the turn. (This means that CivFanatics does have horses connected somewhere.) Obviously there was no way for you to know this. Hope that helps.

Thanks for the headsup! That's very valuable information to have.

[kjn]

The Germans have settled another city, and are now up to 6 (though they have founded 7, but WPC razed one).

They are now up to 17 pop, and gained 5 land tiles. Still no sign of military actions.

Demos:

[kjn]

More APTmod digging

Getting the EP values can be a bit of a pain, but they're much easier to get in APTmod. Log in, select the game/leader, and select Game Detail > Espionage. Then select the leader you're interested in, and you get a list of all their cities and the cost for the spy missions available for each city.

This particular part of APTmod isn't translated from Spanish, but it seems some of the values are improperly labeled too, so that doesn't really matter.

The "sabotage production" number is listed under "Destruir produccin"

The "city revolt" number is listed under "Robar tecnologa", not "Fomentar revuelta" as one could expect.

(BTW, APTmod reports 80 as the sabotage cost in Worms, not 132. I haven't confirmed this in-game, but it implies a queue switch. All other values for known cities match out.)

This also tells us that the Germans called their newest city Wilhelmshaven again. At a guess they settled it where the old city of Wilhelmshaven was located. The first Wilhelmshaven also claimed 5 tiles, and with the name it's suggestive.

[waterbat]

More APTmod digging

Getting the EP values can be a bit of a pain, but they're much easier to get in APTmod. Log in, select the game/leader, and select Game Detail > Espionage. Then select the leader you're interested in, and you get a list of all their cities and the cost for the spy missions available for each city.

This particular part of APTmod isn't translated from Spanish, but it seems some of the values are improperly labeled too, so that doesn't really matter.

The "sabotage production" number is listed under "Destruir produccin"

The "city revolt" number is listed under "Robar tecnologa", not "Fomentar revuelta" as one could expect.

(BTW, APTmod reports 80 as the sabotage cost in Worms, not 132. I haven't confirmed this in-game, but it implies a queue switch. All other values for known cities match out.)

This also tells us that the Germans called their newest city Wilhelmshaven again. At a guess they settled it where the old city of Wilhelmshaven was located. The first Wilhelmshaven also claimed 5 tiles, and with the name it's suggestive.

interesting... if i could grab all that dynamically, it prove useful. do you need me to track prod-in-box for this turn, or you have done it?