Mattimeo
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Insane Cop Posse: a ww minigame
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(February 20th, 2013, 21:54)Tasunke Wrote: I don't like this post tasunke. While we do have the 3 scum/2 innocent split, because they are are on different people, we cannot prove yet that the wolf is in the group of three. Brick > Q = town Tas > uber = scum Matt > uber = town uber > matt = town Q > matt = scum by your logic, the scum HAS to be one of me, matt, or uber. But it doesn't. I could be the fool cop, and uber and matt could be one of seer/naive each. Though, if that's true, you're innocent, and if not one of us three are innocent.... Well, I think we can clear tasunke actually. Mattimeo, saying that we can't get any information from day one is ludicrous.
Reads:
uberfish: Mattimeo - town Tasunke: uberfish - scum Mattimeo: uberfish - town Qgqqqqq: Mattimeo - scum BRickAstley: Qgqqqqq - town Assume uberfish scum: Tasunke: Sane / Paranoid Mattimeo: Insane / Naive Qgqqqqq: Insane / Paranoid BRickAstley: Sane / Naive loop -> no clear Assume Tasunke scum: uberfish: Sane / Naive Mattimeo: Sane / Naive Qgqqqqq: Insane / Paranoid BRickAstley: Sane / Naive Tasunke is town Assume Mattimeo scum: uberfish: Insane / Naive Tasunke: Insane / Paranoid Qgqqqqq: Sane / Paranoid BRickAstley: Sane / Naive loop -> no clear Assume Qgqqqqq scum: uberfish: Sane / Naive Tasunke: Insane / Paranoid Mattimeo: Sane / Naive BRickAstley: Insane / Naive BRick collapses Insane -> no clear Assume BRickAstley scum: uberfish: Sane / Naive Tasunke: Insane / Paranoid Mattimeo: Sane / Naive Qgqqqqq: Insane / Paranoid doubles -> no clear -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone. (February 21st, 2013, 00:32)BRickAstley Wrote: Mattimeo, saying that we can't get any information from day one is ludicrous.Well I think that cements BRick as either Paranoid or Insane, he's pulling shit completely out of his arse again... -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone.
Either Tasunke or Qgqqqqq paranoid.
Assume Tasunke paranoid: Qgqqqqq is not sane, leaves scum or insane. Assume insane: 1) Uber scum, BRickAstley sane, Mattimeo naive, Qgqqqqq insane, Tasunke paranoid 2) BRickAstley scum, uberfish/Mattimeo sane/naive, Qgqqqqq insane, Tasunke paranoid Assume scum: 3) Qgqqqqq scum, uberfish/Mattimeo sane/naive, BRickAstley insane, Tasunke paranoid Assume Qgqqqqq paranoid: Tasunke is not scum, leaves sane or insane. Assume sane: 1) Uber scum, Tasunke sane, BRivkAstley naive, Mattimeo insane, Qgqqqqq paranoid Assume insane: 2) BRickAstley scum, uberfish/Mattimeo sane/naive, Tasunke insane, Qgqqqqq paranoid ...yeah, I've no idea where I'm going with this either :/ -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone. (February 20th, 2013, 21:54)Tasunke Wrote: Plus, I find it possible but unlikely that Uberfish would post first as scum.Disagree. There is a slight town lean inherent in posting earlier, as later posting scum get to fix their results as to not reveal too much (say, prevent a 4-1 split which would confirm paranoid or naive). Therefore, posting early becomes an attractive scum strategy, leading to any attempt to classify based on that coming entirely down to WIFOM. -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone.
Hmm I think we need to be targeted about our kill - lynching the player that will yield the most information.
From where I'm standing, I'm seeing that as being uberfish or mattimeo. Reasoning? Both have received two scans and thus should tell us the most on sanity. I also think we should aim at getting the day1 lynch determined relatively early, so that we can start planning out our moves for tonight. [BIGGER: DO WE RECEIVE A PM ON SANITY IF THE TARGET DIES THE SAME NIGHT?] I think (without a detailed look at the math) that I agree with mat that tasunke is cleared. On an unrelated note; what do you mean by post 15 mat?
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
(February 21st, 2013, 03:13)Qgqqqqq Wrote: On an unrelated note; what do you mean by post 15 mat?Clarified it slightly in 17 as well, but basically: A 4-1 split on reads confirms the person who made the single innocent or guilty read as either naive or paranoid, respectively. Your claim was the second guilty read, bringing both up to 2, eliminating the possibility that Tasunke could be auto-cleared as Paranoid. Not much to go on, sure, but certainly better than killing off the person posting much of the analysis as a method to increase information distribution... -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone.
good work Mattimeo, I agree we can clear tasunke but no one else yet
We should go through a similar analysis for whom is town. I really dislike Q's post 16 proposing a policy lynch without any actual logic to back up his assertion that lynching one of the players with 2 scans on them is correct. In fact, because Matt and myself are now linked by mutual scans, if Matt and I scan the same person and both of us give an innocent result it'd prove that that person was innocent. Whereas if both of us gave a guilty result that would prove that one of us had to be scum. I think we should lynch either Q or Brick today and have both Matt and myself scan the other. |
