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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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Insane Cop Posse: a ww minigame
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Going by the raw data, at least from my perspective it seems like voting for either Brick or Q would be playing to the odds.
For my personal gut feeling, I would say Qgqqqq is the more likely wolf of the two.
I'm really not following your reasoning there uber- what exactly is your objection to a policy lunch?
I voted Matt because a) it will provide more information and b) there was already traction behind it. I suppose I'm just unsure why you think a policy lynch should be avoided - everyone has equal chance, no prs to claim, and I for one hadn't seen any tells. I'm not sure I follow your logic either... @Matt: sorry what do you mean by 4-1? If its guilty to innocent then your basically saying that I analysed the reads and offered a guilty plea based on that - um can't you make cares on ANYONE based on that? "Uber popped in first, this is suspicious because he wants to get in early so he doesn't make the scummy move (mine) of getting in late" "Tasunke (can't remember order but lets go with it) popped in second, clearly he saw where uber was voting, wanted to avoid vetting in late with scan but couldn't" See what I mean?
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
[Split posts due to formatting issues]
Tbh I think uberfish is trying a bit to hard to buddy up to up to mattimeo (in post 20), trying.to make it an us and them situation. What happens when we concentrate our scans and then have the target killed - I'll admit I'm not the best grasp of the math, but I think the strength is in splitting up and then contrasting them . Also why doesn't doubled scans yield information? It gives us specific reads on two rather then one - telling us if im paranoid/scam etc.?
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
Well, in context of lynching for information, we can guarantee at least a 50% chance of winning tomorrow by following my plan.
If mattimeo and myself both scan X and confirmed town Tasunke is nightkilled and the following results are posted: 2 innocents: X is innocent, 1v1 between matt and myself 2 guilty: 1v1 between matt and myself as we must be insane cop + scum 1 innocent 1 guilty: 1v1 between X and whoever has the guilty and we may get further info from X's claimed result (February 21st, 2013, 05:25)Qgqqqqq Wrote: I'm really not following your reasoning there uber- what exactly is your objection to a policy lunch? My objection is to your justification for voting Mattimeo. a) You've not provided any logic to back up that statement. b) Explain this. Are you pressure voting? Just voting him because he's the policy target that already had a vote?
Not sure I entirely agree with your assessment of the results if we both investigate the same person, uber.
Yes, both of us getting the same read would indicate that one of us is not telling the truth. But if we differ, that does not clear the one with the town read - say, you're scum and I'm insane. I'm going to get a guilty read on whoever, leaving you to claim a town read and not be on the block -> win. If we're going with uber's idea to lynch either BRick or Qgqqqqq, I'd say Qgqqqqq. If he flips town, it'll narrow down BRick's possible sanity at a minimum, whereas killing a town BRick doesn't give us anything. -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone.
scan results spoilered for my own reference
The following analysis is done with the knowledge of my own town status 1) If matt is scum then I have to be insane since I got a false innocent result Tas therefore has to be paranoid Q sane and Brick naive -> Scenario 1 is possible 2) If matt is town then I'm sane/naive and so is matt Tasunke insane/paranoid which leaves Q and brick splitting the remaining insane/paranoid role and scum could be Q scum, brick insane, tas paranoid or Brick scum, Q and tas have insane and paranoid -> Scenario 2 is possible Scenario 1 has relies on 1 specific permutation of 5 roles Scenario 2 has 6 permutations. Therefore 6/7 chance of matt being innocent + a slight townish read for putting in effort = I won't lynch him today. (February 21st, 2013, 08:40)Mattimeo Wrote: Not sure I entirely agree with your assessment of the results if we both investigate the same person, uber. Hmm you're right, the guilty might be from insane cop. Well we are either sane+naive or insane+scum one way or the other, can we narrow this down somehow?
Can also work out to naive+scum, at least if I'm the naive one (BRick sane, Tasunke paranoid, Qgqqqqq insane).
Not sure how to narrow down from here. Other randomness I just figured out: a guilty read is actually more likely to be an indication of innocence (insane, 3/4 paranoid, scum) than guilt (sane, 1/4 paranoid). -- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere, someone is fighting for you. -- As long as you remember her, you are not alone. |
