(May 2nd, 2013, 22:23)Mattimeo Wrote: In the meantime, useless and pointless vote on pocketbeetle for claiming further information on two fronts but not revealing any of that information for us to actually judge its relevance. Which is really bloody annoying.
Yes but it's a fun, suspenseful kind of annoying, surely!
(May 3rd, 2013, 11:31)uberfish Wrote: Now make your points or just fuck off and die instead of posting useless shit.
-- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere,
someone is fighting for you.
-- As long as you remember her,
you are not alone.
(May 3rd, 2013, 02:55)uberfish Wrote: Either we both drop the rhetoric and you focus the argument by posting what you think are your 3 or so strongest points against me
Okay since you asked so nicely uberfish, but oh comon, since when have I ever restricted myself to only 3 bullet points? I like them, they're shiny, and they give the impression that the person using them knows what he's doing!
I'll start with the frail stuff before moving onto the killer (ooh punny!) points.
First of all post #198 here.
Since when did you start making "if I die" posts? I know zakalwe has been doing it every night, Lewwyn occasionally, but if my memory serves me, you don't tend to do that until lategame do you? (This is where other players' knowledge would be useful).
As Gaspar noted, the chances of you being killed last night were extremely low, the current high priority night targets would have been Lewwyn, Mattimeo and to a lesser extent myself, all of whom have not had more than a single random vote on us at any point of the game. I'd already posted that you were virtually guaranteed my vote on Day 3, Gaspar was likely to vote for you also, while zakalwe has been expressing his suspicions whenever he wasnt fixating on Gaspar. I'm sure you're going to try and argue vigilante here, but please, given the low player number, Gaspar claiming vanilla, and you claiming a "weak power role", is a vigilante that likely? Don't think so. This is a 9 player game, assume wolves getting a village lynch day 1, taking player numbers down to 5-2, a vig shot misfiring 4-2, game can be at LYLO on Day 2? That's unfun imo and simply not worth the setup time. In short, no reason for you to think you were going to die tonight.
Secondly, the starting line of post 198.
(May 1st, 2013, 15:59)uberfish Wrote: LOL. Let me show you how to do analysis properly.
Oops. That's a mistake. That's an emotional reaction to a taunt, meaning something hit you personally. While the post you're responding to does indicate my suspicion of you, it has your name alongside zakalwe's, and isn't overly aggressive or personal (it doesn't, for instance, have your name in oversized red letters.) But what there is in that post is this:
(May 1st, 2013, 12:48)pocketbeetle Wrote: Hmmm.
It may be arrogance on my part, but I'm honestly wondering if I hit a nerve.
(April 29th, 2013, 13:06)pocketbeetle Wrote:
Two wolf votes on Ryan. Yes both wolves ending up on Ryan would be pretty dumb of them,
And you responded to it on a subconscious level. Interesting isn't it?
Back to boring stuff: a lot of the arguments you use in #109 are repetitions of things I was stating days ago, which you dismissed as simplistic straight away. Inconsistencies my dear little fishy.
Horribly weak argument here:
(May 3rd, 2013, 02:55)uberfish Wrote: 1) clustered with Bigger on Ryan, when I didn't need to, and had already voiced some suspicion of Bigger
You ended up on Ryan because the second highest candidate was you. My Bigger vote gained no traction.
There was absolutely no reason to ability claim in your "if I die” post.
(May 1st, 2013, 15:59)uberfish Wrote: Also: I prevented any electrical actions performed to or by Lewwyn on night 1.
Given your stated belief that it was blindingly obvious you'd been jailed (and yes zak, I deliberately kept it as vague as I could)...
(May 1st, 2013, 18:48)uberfish Wrote: Well, I can tell you that if I'm scum in anyone's position here, some moron claims "I blocked Uberfish" 6 minutes before the deadline, and I see it,
... surely if it was blindingly obvious to you that you were jailed and therefore 100% safe tonight, you would have absolutely no need to claim anything. It takes two seconds to highlight and delete that claim line, and if you were village you should absolutely do so - to withhold knowledge from the wolf while waiting to hear what the nighttime outcome was. You would only keep it there if you were a wolf, knew the nighttime outcome was about to go seriously wrong, and that you'd now need as much credibility as possible.
As scum, why not invent something other than a jailer role you ask? Time constraints, you panicked. It's hard to come up with a plausible ability in 60 seconds, and somebody has already claimed vanilla.
And as for the claim of using your ability on Lewwyn Night 1, I'll rip that a new one next...
The juicy points:
(May 1st, 2013, 15:59)uberfish Wrote: Also: I prevented any electrical actions performed to or by Lewwyn on night 1.
I actually believe this, it's the one thing in your post I believe. I suspect however that like Bigger, you have two abilities, something whimsical maybe, like "Make Tea" and "Deadly Crumpets".
You haven't thought this through properly. I expected you to claim you'd targetted Lewwyn because you believed he was the most likely night kill target, but I guess you screwed the pooch somewhere early on by saying you suspected him? (Ah yes, voting for him first thing Day 2) The problem is that targetting Lewwyn on Night 1 makes absolutely no sense from a villager point of view.
You have an ability. On Night 1 Ryan is dead with his ability, leaving 6 possible villagers. Let's be generous and assume only 1 vanilla villager, that leaves 5 villagers with powers. So you chose to throw away 1/5 = 20% of the village powers on Night 1 for absolutely no information?!?
Think about it, what on earth could targetting Lewwyn return you as information? There are two wolves, so even if you were amazingly on target and guessed correctly, you still only had a 50% chance of interrupting a night kill as either wolf could choose to perform the kill.
Working on just plain probability for a second, 8 players 2 wolves, = 2/8 chance of randomly getting a wolf, 50% chance of him performing the kill = 1/8 = 12.5% chance of interrupting a night kill. You threw away a village protective ability on a 12.5% chance of interrupting a night kill, and even if that magic "no kill tonight" post had arrived, what would you have to tell the village? Well shit, I jailed Lewwyn, he might be a wolf, but he might also have been the target. At which point the village is none the better or wiser, because as I understand it, Lewwyn is considered reasonably high value in these games. Hard to lynch, yet also hard to disprove the argument that he could've been targetted.
Even a nooblet to these games like me can see that the way to use such an ability is to wait until there are fewer players. Specifically the correct villager play is to wait until a wolf is lynched (or failing that, until we reach the night before LYLO). You would then target someone you highly suspected but is less likely to be nightkilled (certainly not a random on Night 1) and if a night kill occurs anyway, congratulations you have just removed a big suspect from your list. Or the alternative, a quiet night occurs, in which case barring other influences you have probably found your wolf, because there's only one left and he now has to perform kill actions solo. Is this sounding familiar at all?
So the overall point being made here, is that from a villager perspective, wasting your ability on Night 1 is damn stupid and a very nooblike play from someone who is supposed to be experienced.
What it does fit however, is a wolf perspective. Using your ability to block Lewwyn (a high value target) while your partner kills Serdoa (another high value target) is solid play. Using blocking abilities early on is an entirely reasonable scum tactic to spread confusion and limit village information spread, see Tasunke's Mass Distractor usage last game. Blocking Lewwyn Night 1 covers your butt in case he has a strong ability, and allows you to easily kill him Night 2, hopefully setting up LYLO.
So you see, while claiming that ability usage I'm sure at first glance looked reasonable for a scumhunting villager, it falls flat with even 5 seconds thought, and either way makes you look bad.
The whole "electric" angle vs robot Lewwyn is weak also, given you were slow to pick up on Lewwyn being Marvin.
We know there are other robots in the game (zakalwe, Ryan), that doesn't excuse you throwing the ability away as a villager.
What the hell is this:
(May 1st, 2013, 16:56)uberfish Wrote: Since I ability-claimed anyway, I'll just go ahead and claim that I'm Arthur Dent and aligned with the town... er I mean village... er I mean good guys.
Since when does anyone claim that they're "innocent... er village... er goodies"?!?
You should be stating it like Gaspar did:
(April 30th, 2013, 15:41)Gaspar Wrote: I'm Svarti-something, I didn't really read the role PM beyond alignment (good guys) and ability (none). Though apparently I design coastlines or fjords or some such. I haven't read the books, I'm really not a big scifi guy.
"... er" is a linguistic filler or an interjection, indicating a pause for thinking or uncertainty. Actually physically typing such a word out, not once but twice, goes way beyond uncertainty.
When stating your alignment you have to say it definitely and with conviction: "I am a villager". Easy. Not freaking "erm well sorta".
Almost immediately after my #201 post you're clearly panicking.
Despite having only my vote on you, you're acting like it's 10 minutes to lynch deadline.
Your post rate has rocketed, thoughts and arguments are being thrown out piecemeal. Villagers don't do this at the start of the Day.
The reason is quite simple really, they know they are innocent, and part of a villager is always hopeful that others will recognise this.
It's only when the votes pile up does the pressure mount, and then the post spam begins. Again, I refer to Gaspar end of Day 2. Wolves panic sooner because they know they're guilty.
Furthermore when villagers try to defend themselves, even against insurmountable odds, the approach tends to go something like this:
"Well shit, I know this sounds unbelievable and I know you're all probably going to lynch me anyway, but really what must have happened is this.”
A good example is Gazglum last WW game here.
Even now you're still not fully adopting the “I'm an innocent martyr” attitude that a villager would be embracing at this point:
(May 3rd, 2013, 02:55)uberfish Wrote: Anyway at this point even if I do die,
Following on the above, your defense when laid out in detail should've tried to stay as simple as possible. You'd have been better off exploring a theory where Gaspar tries to night kill you, because hey, its incredibly important for him to remove guaranteed Gaspar voters, but killing zakalwe would have been way too obvious. You've hinted at this in #206, but it's obviously a half-hearted effort and you haven't really tried to build on it.
Instead you launch straight away into a complicated conspiracy theory where the wolf is constantly monitoring the thread in real time and instantaneously making perfect decisions. Never forget your proverbial razor in these situations, why not just say that clearly the wolf targetted you? People rarely go for the "well it's complicated so it must be true" arguments. We like simple stuff.
And as a bonus point, why on earth did you wait until after I'd posted my explanation of the night outcome?
Again if it was so obvious to you that you'd been jailed, you could surely have figured out the implications and started the post spam defense earlier.
Even a simple villagerish "Huh? What's going on?" (see zakalwe's reaction) would've looked better than clearly being online at Night deadline, seeing the result, hunkering down to wait for my post an hour later, and then responding within a mere 6 minutes to it.
Makes it look like you're holding your cards close to your chest, despite having claimed your character already.
I understand your frustration of course. Because in actual fact the wolf was monitoring the thread closely, and if luckernoob me had targetted anyone except you, you could have run rampant with this I'm sure.
Yeah, now that I think about it, that must sting a little bit.
I asked for 3 points because I can't be bothered quoting from a massive wall of text. Of course you post a massive wall of text
so
- I claimed my n1 action because it could easily have caused some confusion. I thought it over during the nightphase and figured that my interaction with Bigger and the n1 kill made me practically confirmed town. After I posted I went afk figuring it'd take a while for novice to post.
- Emotional reactions aren't a wolf tell. LOL. Town players, believe it or not, have emotions. I'm just annoyed with your crap. It's a massive stretch to assume that it's because you mentioned the 2 wolves thing.
- In fact, if you think it's stupid for 2 wolves to be on Ryan that should automatically clear me because I'm not stupid and my scum MO is to manipulate my voting record to be as good as possible.
- I saw the assumptions in your first large post that scum always vote for town and avoid voting for scum, and dismissed the entire line of argument as superficial because it was based on arbitrary assumptions of scum behaviour.
- I obviously had no idea I was jailed specifically. I guess you might not be aware of this but there's a role called Roleblocker which blocks night actions without actually protecting the target. so saying that I should have cancelled my claim because I knew I was jailed is dumb.
- Why did I use my ability? It was a weak ability and the idea of preserving it for later didn't really cross my mind. I figured Marvin might have some sort of electrically themed kill ability if he was scum, so I just went for it n1. If I stop a kill, great, if not, just go with normal scumhunting.
- uh.. so I was slow to pick up on lewwyn being marvin. How is that even a point? Once I realized it I just continued on that train of thought.
- Village/town/good guy thing was a joke from the last game by thestick. Mattimeo and zak will confirm that.
- My village meta is I do whatever the hell I feel like. I don't care about acting according to some sort of "approved village playbook". Last time I was village I told the seer not to scan me at night and picked up a ton of heat for it. These "proper village behaviour" tells simply don't apply to me.
- Your theory of gaspar nightkilling me to shut me up (because killing Zak would be suspicious) is actually a decent one.
Yeah, I recognized that as a joke. I can also confirm that Uberfish has a track record for playing unconventionally as town - in his opening post in WW7 he claimed to be scum - but I can't really say that I've seen him do anything unconventional here.
Your case is good enough for a lynch, PB. But you're not actually strengthening it a lot by posting this wall - it just looks like you're "overfitting" the data and smells like confirmation bias, since there are inevitably some weak arguments mixed in with the good ones. Just some super friendly advice from a "vet" when it comes to building a solid case - hopefully you're not offended by this. In short, don't overdo it, or you're just opening yourself up to the "tunnel vision" defense, which I am fairly used to encountering.
In short, don't overdo it, or you're just opening yourself up to the "tunnel vision" defense, which I am fairly used to encountering. 
