AT loves it when a plan comes together!! [Spoilers]

[MindyMcCready]

Question to lurkers:

Given that we've been in war with Jowy.
We take the first half (no choice)
Jowy plays next (last with 2 civs)
Should TT not play third?

And AT,...it shouldn't matter too much that TT played before you recently. That shouldn't be a meaningful precedent in my mind. If we reestablish a turn order, we're not double moving TT because we're not at war with him. I think that this is probably the most reasonable way to play. First come, first serve in the war turns and all that. Its not so much that Jowy plays last so much as we play first in my mind.

TT shouldn't really be entitled to pick what his turn is when the timing could really matter. Can I suggest that you pause it until there's been a formal agreement?

[AutomatedTeller]

So, some updates - as it turns out, it may be just as well that I did what I think was the right thing, since I caught 2 workers chopping forests outside of Eden Prime




I'm keeping the workers - those maces have a defense of 16, wth 2 first strikes. - I figure that it will cost him 3-6 units to kill them, and then he's just toast. and actually capturing workers is nice.

also - TT made this offer:



Hard to pass up, no? I haven't taken it - frankly, TT is looking like he's winning the game. he just kicked off his 2nd GA (and he has the MoM) and finished the AP.

his list of wonders:

Pyramids
MoM
AP
HG
Notre Dame.

He's had basically the opposite of Azza's game

Anyway - it's tough to take an offer like that on a guy who just kicked off a GA and is going to land liberalism - fueling his research seems really dumb.

[MindyMcCready]

What's your plans for the next move? Did you move 2 WII units to Rannoch or just the one?

I imagine that you've written off a move on Eden Prime? Those 6 whips have made our chances of taking that city remote and worse if we make a move we could lose Horizon to a counter attack.

Secondly, I want to again recommend razing Citadel again over taking Noveria. Well I want to do both, of course. But if we only have the element of surprise on one of them then I'd take out Citadel. Reason is that Jowy may very well be committed to a troll defense. It's a small thing, but that Trieme's just crazy when you're fighting for survival.

Jowy's going to defend Citadel, Eden prime and Thessia to the last. Even a troll defense would be unlikely to abandon Eden prime. So effectively we force his army northward. We should then hold Noveria with ease and we have future opportunity to catch Thessia by surprise with guerilla units if we manage to replant Citadel.

But bottom line, if Jowy's doing a troll defense, we need to take out a unit producing city like Citadel if we have a chance.

[AutomatedTeller]

well, it's been played - I'm actually fine with the results - one thing is that we are avoiding a fair amount of war weariness. If TT picks off 3 cities, I'm ok with that.

And I'm fine with picking off 2 workers and preserving a forest. Or maybe jowy suicides on WIII maces in woods - I'm ok with that, too - we can make more

[MindyMcCready]

So TT got Rannoch? Well we got 2 workers, and you're right, if he spends the units retaking the workers we've got some chance at Eden Prime again. Actually, no. That's a ridiculous statement. That city is size 12 and can whip out a ton of LB. We're not taking that city. Probably best to just keep what we've got.

Gawd, we really need workers, so that's good. But it really burns me that TT takes that city so easily. Did you get a look at the stack that TT has in Rannoch?

I guess Education isn't so valuable to us since we're not really in the position to build infrastructure. Still heck of a trade I think. He's trying to buy peace with us since he took our city?

Maybe take the deal so that he feels nice and safe, goes after the next free city from Jowy and we raze that city. Its probably stupid to want to throw down with him, but its dangerous to have him so close and he'll definately make a serious land grab if he feels safe.

Gawd what a burn. That's our city. We were 1 turn away and probably not even. Man, I would do something really stupid if I thought that I could take that city. Its lucky that I don't play turns.

[MindyMcCready]

Ok. Looking at Jowy's stack again.

No chance at taking Eden Prime and we're definately in danger of losing Horizon. We need those units guarding that forest 1W of Horizon. If Jowy gets Enginnering he can take the forest and strand our units there. I think the offensive in that area is over. We need to pull back and wait for another day,...and watch TT pick up more easy cities.

What a damn troll Jowy is. That's a half decent stack in there with more to come from Eden Prime whips and chops. I'm not sure what TT's packing, but if Jowy had made peace with us I can't imagine that he wouldn't have had a fair chance at holding Rannoch or at least seriously bloodying TT's nose with a counter attack. He would have then had 10T to get ready for us whipping and chopping and we'd get nowhere without a serious risk and a serious fight. Instead, he's coming darn close to the definition of gifting cities to TT.

[AutomatedTeller]

Rannoch:



We can take it back when we want it - I'm ok with not getting into it with TT and letting him take the weariness from Jowy on that. I think that if we took it, we'd be looking at unhappy faces. Also, I'm about to settle the clam site, which will take the horses from Rannoch. in my opinion, TT would have been attacking Azza

I think that defense of Eden Prime looks worse than it is - the elephants and catapults don't get defensive bonuses - the only defender there that's scary is the LB. I'd have to run some sims, but right now, I'd say we have maybe a 50/50 shot at taking it, though it will take a couple of turns of combat. I'd be more worried if it had walls, but it does not.

About boating Citadel - the only way to physically boat it out of the fog is with 1 galley that has a GG attached to it, and that's risky, especially with jowy having a trireme around. Taking Noveria puts 4 units in boatable range of his capital and, frankly, may cause him to abandon Eden Prime. Plus, it means I can attach a GG to a land unit, not a boat, which is a lot more useful, in my opinion.

Current boat plan:



that gets 4 units in Noveria, plus I can pick up another LB and get it there in 2. Noveria is secure and Jowy is toast.

[AutomatedTeller]

Jowy doesn't have engineering and won't get it - the only person (I think) who teched engineering is... TT.



I don't know if we can get Eden Prime or not - Jowy's not taking Horizon back, not without giving up Eden Prime, and he's not doing that. he can't one turn Horizon (I cut the roads) and he doesn't have any 2 movers anyway.

TT could take it, if he wanted, but I think he's just being opportunistic. Which is a pain, but it's how you win.

Couple more pics from the turn:



TT is back in GA, for another 12 turns. Getting good use out of the MoM.

Note that Cornflakes took another city of Azza's.



This is basically azza's last stand. I don't understand why azza isn't hitting cornflakes with those catapults. Wby build 'em if yo uare just going to let someone run you over?

Interesting geography question:



I see why he goes after Jowy - I don't understand how he didn't pile on Azza, though, letting cornflakes take a city that has to 12 tiles closer to him than to cornflakes.

[MindyMcCready]

Rannoch:

We can take it back when we want it - I'm ok with not getting into it with TT and letting him take the weariness from Jowy on that. I think that if we took it, we'd be looking at unhappy faces. Also, I'm about to settle the clam site, which will take the horses from Rannoch. in my opinion, TT would have been attacking Azza

If he's only going to defend it with 3 units then I think that we should land guilds and hit that in a surprise attack and keep or raze it. Either he just come with a handful of spare units to pick up pieces or he's got a decent stack that's headed to his next city. If he's headed to his next city then we should be able to strand that stack if we make the appearance of holding no grudge.

And does taking that city from TT still give us war weariness? Doubled war weariness from Jowy I mean.

I think that defense of Eden Prime looks worse than it is - the elephants and catapults don't get defensive bonuses - the only defender there that's scary is the LB. I'd have to run some sims, but right now, I'd say we have maybe a 50/50 shot at taking it, though it will take a couple of turns of combat. I'd be more worried if it had walls, but it does not.

I disagree somewhat. Yes, he only has 1 LB there. He could whip many more. He could have more cats where we can't see them. He could have more LB where we can't see them and be baiting us. We only have 3 cats so we're going to take down his culture very slowly (more LB defenders/more cats) or we're going to do an inadequate amount of collateral damage and spend our units. He could also whip walls in 1T. Any sim you run should involve him whipping in more LBs and/or him hitting Horizon to strand our units. If he does that our stack is dead. The culture on Horizon will reassert and we'll be deep in his territory waiting to get collateralled to death.

And yes, he's got elephants which get no defense bonus, but we're attacking primarily with strenght 6 units. We've got 19 units, he's currently showing 16 units. We should anticipate another 2/3 LBs every turn.
T152 we're 1NE of Prime; Jowy has 3 LBs.
T153 we collateral. With 60% culture our stack is going to take bad losses.
T153 we bring down defenses to 36% . Jowy adds another 2 LB.
T154 we bring down defenses to 12%. Jowy's at 7 LBs. Maybe he upgrades spear/archer/warrior.
T155 we attack. 3/4 collateral cats hitting 22 units, 7 of which are LBs.

That's probably the scenario that we should be simming. Unless I'm missing something, this wouldn't end well for us.

That scenario should also involve a "What if" that TT decides to raze Horizon and limit our advance in the area. If I was in MoM GA and had Muskateers, I'd consider doing it.

About boating Citadel - the only way to physically boat it out of the fog is with 1 galley that has a GG attached to it, and that's risky, especially with jowy having a trireme around. Taking Noveria puts 4 units in boatable range of his capital and, frankly, may cause him to abandon Eden Prime. Plus, it means I can attach a GG to a land unit, not a boat, which is a lot more useful, in my opinion.

That's a good point about him loosening the defenses of Eden prime if we take out Noveria. I've been thinking about if in the opposite way, but that's just as true. Still given the amount that he can whip I don't think that he'll be overly concerned or threatened. I hadn't really considered that, but my feeling is that it wouldn't open up enough of an opportunity to take either city.

Either move is good. Razing Citadel is better if Jowy's doing troll defense. Taking Noveria is probably better if we think that we still want to try to land peace with him.

I don't need to boat either city out of the fog so I'm not suggesting attaching a GG to a boat, althought its not a terrible idea if he continues to only have 1 archer defend Citadel and is trolling. I've always been more interested in forking both cities and seeing what comes of it.

Current boat plan:

I think that you know your stuff on this, better than I do anyway, but I just have to double check that that path you're showing can go through the tile 1E of the clams. Largely because I didn't think that this move is an allowed galley move, I didn't really have any plans to hit him out of the blue, just fork him.

that gets 4 units in Noveria, plus I can pick up another LB and get it there in 2. Noveria is secure and Jowy is toast.

Jowy's our Azza. He's not going to fall over that easy anymore. He seems to have found his whip.... Only through surprise (1 time) or through speed or better tech (tough in a TT game) will be able to land easy wins.

Overall, I do like picking up Noveria and pushing for peace with Jowy. He might try to defend against TT and/or retake his city. Its the best plan,...its just got this one problem called Jowy.

[AutomatedTeller]

If he's only going to defend it with 3 units then I think that we should land guilds and hit that in a surprise attack and keep or raze it. Either he just come with a handful of spare units to pick up pieces or he's got a decent stack that's headed to his next city. If he's headed to his next city then we should be able to strand that stack if we make the appearance of holding no grudge.

And does taking that city from TT still give us war weariness? Doubled war weariness from Jowy I mean.

No - we get weariness from TT, because we are fighting him.

I disagree somewhat. Yes, he only has 1 LB there. He could whip many more. He could have more cats where we can't see them. He could have more LB where we can't see them and be baiting us. We only have 3 cats so we're going to take down his culture very slowly (more LB defenders/more cats) or we're going to do an inadequate amount of collateral damage and spend our units. He could also whip walls in 1T. Any sim you run should involve him whipping in more LBs and/or him hitting Horizon to strand our units. If he does that our stack is dead. The culture on Horizon will reassert and we'll be deep in his territory waiting to get collateralled to death.


And yes, he's got elephants which get no defense bonus, but we're attacking primarily with strenght 6 units. We've got 19 units, he's currently showing 16 units. We should anticipate another 2/3 LBs every turn.
T152 we're 1NE of Prime; Jowy has 3 LBs.
T153 we collateral. With 60% culture our stack is going to take bad losses.
T153 we bring down defenses to 36% . Jowy adds another 2 LB.
T154 we bring down defenses to 12%. Jowy's at 7 LBs. Maybe he upgrades spear/archer/warrior.
T155 we attack. 3/4 collateral cats hitting 22 units, 7 of which are LBs.

That's probably the scenario that we should be simming. Unless I'm missing something, this wouldn't end well for us.

That scenario should also involve a "What if" that TT decides to raze Horizon and limit our advance in the area. If I was in MoM GA and had Muskateers, I'd consider doing it.

TT attacking us would be a bad thing. But he doesn't have gunpowder yet and you can't upgrade anything to musketeers, so we have a lot of warning.

yes, adding 2-3 LB a turn would suck. He can't easily do that AND add walls, and if he doesn't add walls, we can bring his defenses to 12% in one turn - our cats can get accuracy, which is 16% to the ole defense.

if we do end up in the situation you describe, we'll walk away. I think it overestimates his ability to get LB, since a dry whip is 3 pop, but yes - it's possible. There is a risk to this line, but if he's not taking peace, might as well give it a shot. We are still pouring reinforcements in.

That's a good point about him loosening the defenses of Eden prime if we take out Noveria. I've been thinking about if in the opposite way, but that's just as true. Still given the amount that he can whip I don't think that he'll be overly concerned or threatened. I hadn't really considered that, but my feeling is that it wouldn't open up enough of an opportunity to take either city.

Either move is good. Razing Citadel is better if Jowy's doing troll defense. Taking Noveria is probably better if we think that we still want to try to land peace with him.

I don't need to boat either city out of the fog so I'm not suggesting attaching a GG to a boat, althought its not a terrible idea if he continues to only have 1 archer defend Citadel and is trolling. I've always been more interested in forking both cities and seeing what comes of it.

I think that you know your stuff on this, better than I do anyway, but I just have to double check that that path you're showing can go through the tile 1E of the clams. Largely because I didn't think that this move is an allowed galley move, I didn't really have any plans to hit him out of the blue, just fork him.

Assuming Noveria stays empty, we will still have a fork, since if we fork citadel and noveria, he's just going to give up noveria. We can have 3 units on the boat still (assuming noveria is empty) and if he doesn't reinforce citadel, we take it, too.

That's a very good point on the tile E of the clams - it's an ocean tile, so we can't go in there (though Jowy can). I think it works if we can get the 3rd point and go 1 south. Otherwise, it's an extra turn.

that gets 4 units in Noveria, plus I can pick up another LB and get it there in 2. Noveria is secure and Jowy is toast.

Jowy's our Azza. He's not going to fall over that easy anymore. He seems to have found his whip.... Only through surprise (1 time) or through speed or better tech (tough in a TT game) will be able to land easy wins.

Overall, I do like picking up Noveria and pushing for peace with Jowy. He might try to defend against TT and/or retake his city. Its the best plan,...its just got this one problem called Jowy.
[/quote]

Yup - I think the idea to pull back isn't a bad one - I'm surprised he didn't take peace, though, when offered... or at least counter-offer something. I dunno - my guess is that when we read his thread, we'll say "oh - well, I don't agree with that line of thinking, but I can see it" But that's just a guess.