The German War

[Ichabod]

Other interesting information:

1. We have 67,09% chances of defeating the longbow with 3 unpromoted macemen attacking it (1,01% with the first attack, 29,02% with the second).

2. If we attack with 1 CR2 Macemen and 2 unpromoted ones to follow up, our chances of defeating the longbow are 82,10% (8,15% with the first attack, 51,56% with the second).

Be aware that this calculations don't take into account the other defenders of the city. It's purely against the LB. And, of course, depending on the results from the first or secnd combat, everything can change.

Any other tests people want me to make? Using a specific combination of units, perhaps?

[kjn]

1. We don't have any promoted maces in the area.

2. The longbow has G1. We get a 0.79% chance to win according to the in-game combat odds calculator.

[Zargon]

It seems like the most interesting possibility then would be what would it look like to attack with a C1 or C2 knight first, and then throw maces at the problem? Throwing an unpromoted knight first seems uninteresting.

[Ichabod]

Other likely scenarios we might have:

The axe defending, presuming it has 25% fortify, will give the following percentages:

No promo Mace: 25% odds of victory.
CR1 Mace: 30,70% odds of victory.
CR2 Mace: 64,26% odds of victory.

The spearman defending, presuming it has 25% fortify, will give the following percentages:

No promo WE: 9,01% odds of victory.
Combat 1 WE: 11,90% odds of victory.
Combat 1/Shock WE: 23,20% odds of victory.

[Ichabod]

1. We don't have any promoted maces in the area.

2. The longbow has G1. We get a 0.79% chance to win according to the in-game combat odds calculator.

I considered G1, which gives 45% hill defense (25% from the unit, 20% from the promotion). The difference is probably due to different ways in which the first strike is calculated having influence on the odds (if I haven't made any other mistake).

The longbow has any fortify bonus?

[kjn]

My sandbox gives the following:

1 first strike
+75% from tile defense (hill + walls)
+25% from city (unit ability)
+45% from hill (unit ability)

It also reports 0.79% odds (same as in-game).

Not really sure what's up here. Maybe it's the mod that gives includes the first strike?

[pindicator]

1. We don't have any promoted maces in the area.

2. The longbow has G1. We get a 0.79% chance to win according to the in-game combat odds calculator.

I believe it's been said/shown that the in-game calculator is not always accurate.

[Ichabod]

My sandbox gives the following:

1 first strike
+75% from tile defense (hill + walls)
+25% from city (unit ability)
+45% from hill (unit ability)

It also reports 0.79% odds (same as in-game).

Not really sure what's up here. Maybe it's the mod that gives includes the first strike?

As far as I know, the combat calculator inside the game doesn't show the actual odds when first strikes are considered.

Either way, the data I posted is pretty reliable, as far as I know (if not completely exact). Main reason I posted it was to give a perspective on the possible "no hit" outcome against the longbow.

[Cyneheard]

As far as I know, the combat calculator inside the game doesn't show the actual odds when first strikes are considered.

I thought the game fixed this now? It was an issue way back in vanilla.

[Ruff_Hi]

No promotions knight:

Combat 1 Knight:

Any idea why your combat engine doesn't match the in-game odds?

knight v longbow at worms - 10.5%
combat 1 knight v longbow at worms - 22%

Edit: saw the posts about the in-game calc ... don't Knights ignore first strike?