Strategic directions - long-term planning

[scooter]

Also a good point on whipping, but I can't help but think of pbem45 scooter, where you made me pay for not having a navy. Yes, my superior demos showed through, but not without a lot of whipping. As long as we avoid that scenario then I'm happy.

I think the main difference is I went all-in for Astro there with the bulb play. We're watching CFC very closely via C&D, and they aren't headed for Astro, and I'm pretty sure they've invalidated the Astro bulb route by now. (right?)

Another key difference is those are marginal and unattractive cities down south, so they're a bit less likely targets for CFC. Our 15+ best cities are all north and essentially land-locked. Not that we want our southern cities lost of course, but it's also not like choking our southern cities would have nearly the impact that me choking your core cities had in 45.

FWIW, if CFC showed any signs of interest in Astro right now, we might be forced to react (dunno, that's a different discussion), but they seem to want Rifles first and foremost, and rightfully so.

[kjn]

I think the main difference is I went all-in for Astro there with the bulb play. We're watching CFC very closely via C&D, and they aren't headed for Astro, and I'm pretty sure they've invalidated the Astro bulb route by now. (right?)

A GS by CFC would bulb Paper-Education right now (they know Civil Service). They can bulb Optics, but they'd have to clear out Compass first, and Optics isn't that interesting a bulb target anyway.

I imagine they might use a GA too, but then they'd have to clear out the entire Aesthetics line up to Music, Theology, Compass, and Optics.

The team that is at the best position to bulb Astronomy is probably Apolyton, since they can bulb or otherwise clear out Printing Press, Calendar, Compass, and Optics, and then should be free to bulb Astronomy (as long as they avoid Gunpowder or Engineering).

[pindicator]

We're really past the point of bulbing Astronomy. I meant the topic more in general anyway. If and when we do fight CFC, it would be silly to think that we can ignore the navy.

For us right now, I would say that Optics is the only thing that is necessary in the near to medium term. We are planning on settling down by the whales/silver/marble spot anyway, so we will want to have Optics for that. Optics is also good for the increased sight over water. May as well get some caravels built and get some more sight in far away lands.

[Ruff_Hi]

I think one or two of our sea based cities should be slightly skewed towards hammers instead of commerce. Some navy is better than none and we will need the ability to produce those sorts of units at some point.

Re our important cities - I don't have a picture handy, but aren't our Globe and Nat Epic cities coastal?

[TheHumanHydra]

Globe, yes: Starfall. Heroic Epic, sort of: it's our Moai city, but it's on a big lake, not the main sea. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[kjn]

I think one or two of our sea based cities should be slightly skewed towards hammers instead of commerce. Some navy is better than none and we will need the ability to produce those sorts of units at some point.

Re our important cities - I don't have a picture handy, but aren't our Globe and Nat Epic cities coastal?

Starfall (Globe) is coastal, and will need some naval protection lest it lose its fish.

Eastern Dealers (National Epic) is technically coastal, but the sea is only 14 tiles large, so it's not allowed to build naval units there. I'm not sure if CFC can canal over the isthmus, but I'm not sure why they'd bother. We will need a decent garrison there anyway, since it can be threatened from CFC's border city.

Horse Feathers (Heroic Epic) is also coastal, but we hold all the cities on that 20-tile sea, and we have an agreement that CivPlayers won't settle a city on it.

[fluffyflyingpig]

I want to echo Ruff and Boldly, all of the new coastal cities should be hammer focused. They will never be good commerce cities and we will need a navy around when they are able to contribute meaningfully.

[kjn]

Thinking some more about the development of the naval game.

First, Apolyton has a pretty big disincentive to researching Astronomy, since they have the Colossus. I'm not sure they're good enough at killing their darlings to push for the tech early - they might very well avoid the tech as long as they possibly can, despite them winning the Magellan race. They are also the team that is most vulnerable to the Sirian doctrine right now (we are probably second).

Instead, I wouldn't be surprised if they push for Gunpowder and getting their janissaries, hoping to use them to stomp on someone. Trouble for them is that all their neighbours can get Gunpowder themselves reasonably quickly (except the Germans).

Then we have CFC. They have very few coastal cities, and even if their coastals are more oriented towards production than ours, it won't matter until late in the game - all the Astronomy naval units are easy whip targets. Ie, the number of cities is arguably more important than their quality.

[kjn]

Picking up some posts from the diplo thread:

Well Banks are better than Markets and Grocers when happy and health isn't needed. I'd prefer a communism beeline though.

Agree. We might pick up Banking since it's cheap, but we can probably play that by ear.

I was thinking more along the lines of just the bank in Mansa's Muse, which would be worth something silly like 40 or 50 gpt at breakeven science rate, and for which we've run out of gold multipliers to build.

That said, if we think we could make it to communism with a beeline through gunpowder, with enough time to spare before turn 200 to tech something defensive like steel if necessary, that might be the better option. State property will in fact be ridiculous, unless we get revolted out of it.

I'm just feeling a little nervous about dropping 12.6k beakers on beelining state property (not counting gunpowder), and more or less hoping that we don't get revolted out of it as soon as our golden age ends. I feel like I'd rather play more defensively, and build economic advantages that are more robust against espionage. That's part of why I like courthouses so much right now. They're good now, and they'll also serve the purpose of making state property less devastating to lose later.

Basically, I think the question is whether the communism beeline will provide ten times the benefit of the ability to build a bank in Mansa's Muse, because it costs a little over 10 times more (since 2 civs know banking). Maybe it does. I'm not familiar with playing late-game civs. But a quick sanity check tells me it might be worth ~240 gpt (40 cities by 6 gpt (a guess) average distance maintenance). Are the other benefits of beelining state property (+10% hammers, +2 hammers on workshops, +1 for watermills) really going to take up the slack? Even without considering the (imo high) risk of getting revolted out, it seems like the answer is no.

There is another big benefit from Communism, and that's the Kremlin. Both Slavery and Universal Suffrage benefit a lot from the wonder.

The question isn't really Banking vs Communism, really though. It's more a Communism beeline or a Rifling beeline. There I favour the Communism beeline, for several reasons.

* We get a decent defensive unit in musketmen, that we will need regardless
* We can pick up either Steel or Military Science once we get Chemistry, giving solid units
* The economic benefits from the Communism line are far greater than those from the Rifling line

[kalin]

I realized I don't know that much about revolting out of civics, so how is the late game going to look for us? One turn of anarchy every 5 turns with little that we can do about it? Does anybody have any insight into this.

Thanks,
Kalin