WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Know-Nothing Jon]

That added with his "policy lynch me" posts is enough for me to be content to vote for him. Especially as I don't believe that his time-situation suddenly got worse, he most likely knew that at the start of the game already if it is true. So as a villager he could have simply told BRick and one of those on the waiting list could have joined instead. But he didn't. He also didn't get himself modkilled, he just told us he is fine if we lynch him, as explained above playing on emotions. That's all not really villagery for me. And when I read his D1, I find contributions that for me read as if he did have quite some time to actually read posts very thoroughly. So his statement now that he does not have it doesn't read true for me. I think we have a wolf here that thought it to be smart play to offer his policy lynch right away when getting some votes and when he realized that it gave him just more votes he turned around and started to contribute. Just that those contributions show that his "I don't have time"-excuse wasn't really true, else he couldn't whip up those facts that quickly imo.

Actually, the above shows that you yourself told Scarlet John that he should have asked to be replaced. But I see now that you meant he should have asked at the start of the game, so you are being consistent.

[Young Will]

widow edith

more come come tonight

I would be interested to hear what you think. I also believe I know what happened between you and Bert. Do you reckon there is any reason to not explain it to everyone?

I will eventually if I stay alive. If I'm night killed, it won't matter, and I'll tell you in the lurkers lounge.

so I was pulled away from this game, sorry. Was planning to attack Edith, but there's no reason for that now. I'd rather lynch kate, and if for some bizarre reason she rolls innocent, lynch Saul and Muriel.

[Lady Elizabeth]

widow edith

more come come tonight

I would be interested to hear what you think. I also believe I know what happened between you and Bert. Do you reckon there is any reason to not explain it to everyone?

I will eventually if I stay alive. If I'm night killed, it won't matter, and I'll tell you in the lurkers lounge.

so I was pulled away from this game, sorry. Was planning to attack Edith, but there's no reason for that now. I'd rather lynch kate, and if for some bizarre reason she rolls innocent, lynch Saul and Muriel.

I suggest you use the ninja-post trick that Saul should have used. If Kate flips wolf you won't die tonight though for obvious reasons.

[Short Richard]

Kate the Waif

I'm not sure what to think on Rob. He played a good D1 by persistantly attacking Muriel, but I found myself agreeing with Widow Edith during their debate. As for his anger and replacement, I can't decide between 'wolf-plot' and 'genuine.'

[Widow Edith]

I will eventually if I stay alive. If I'm night killed, it won't matter, and I'll tell you in the lurkers lounge.
Was planning to attack Edith, but there's no reason for that now.

Perhaps we can talk about your attack during the night. Today I'll spent most of my time in, on and around water as we will reach 40 degree today.

[Fat Rose]

That added with his "policy lynch me" posts is enough for me to be content to vote for him. Especially as I don't believe that his time-situation suddenly got worse, he most likely knew that at the start of the game already if it is true. So as a villager he could have simply told BRick and one of those on the waiting list could have joined instead. But he didn't. He also didn't get himself modkilled, he just told us he is fine if we lynch him, as explained above playing on emotions. That's all not really villagery for me. And when I read his D1, I find contributions that for me read as if he did have quite some time to actually read posts very thoroughly. So his statement now that he does not have it doesn't read true for me. I think we have a wolf here that thought it to be smart play to offer his policy lynch right away when getting some votes and when he realized that it gave him just more votes he turned around and started to contribute. Just that those contributions show that his "I don't have time"-excuse wasn't really true, else he couldn't whip up those facts that quickly imo.

Actually, the above shows that you yourself told Scarlet John that he should have asked to be replaced. But I see now that you meant he should have asked at the start of the game, so you are being consistent.

Glad you found that as I was busy yesterday (mainly by playing Shadowrun Returns). But I take from your post that you misunderstood (or misread) it when I first posted it, just seeing the replacement. If that's the case, chances are that Rob also could have misread it and even got the idea to request a replacement because of that whole discussion (what still does not make me like his emotional outbursts but at least gives credence to the theory that the replacement-request was genuine).

@Agnes

Ok. Actually your explanation was my reason for asking you, because I thought you tried to draw some connections between this Serdoa-type and certain behaviour.

[Muriel The Slow]

Will, sorry, but I will have to reveal the interaction between you and Bert. I had a bad feeling about you when I figured it all out. The fact that you want to keep the details of the interaction secret, even though there shouldn't be any reason to keep it secret, makes me even more uneasy. If you are a villager and had a plan to benefit the village by keeping the interaction a secret, and I wasn't smart enough to figure it out, then I am sorry. Will is the friendly neighbor. During nights, he can visit a player and they will receive a PM from the game master that says Will is a villager. This is why it was Will who visited Bert (as confirmed by John), but Bert who called for Will's innocence. Normally this role is always a villager role and benefits the village. A wolf being the friendly neighbor would be a bastard role, which explains Bert saying that the game master is a bastard if Will isn't a villager. And sadly, this might be the case in our game. Will would rather coast through as a confirmed villager, than explain everything and give village more information, and also bring up the fact that he isn't a confirmed villager after all. Bert was a good night kill even without this situation, but he also wouldn't be able to explain the interaction when he is dead, and the rest of the village hadn't shown any signs of having it figured out. I think there is a good chance that Will is a wolf.

I've also had a new thought on the seer situation, mainly thanks to Will's post telling us to lynch Saul AND Muriel if Kate flips a villager. This theory doesn't rely on Will being a wolf. First I thought that exchanging Kate-villager for Saul-wolf wouldn't make any sense for the wolves, but now I realize that if Kate is a villager, it's not just Saul who will be lynched, but also me. Currently we have 6 dead villagers and 1 dead wolf.

Let's assume 25% of the players were wolves, which should be the lowest possible amount of wolves. So at the beginning we had 5 wolves and 15 villagers. Right now we would have 4 wolves and 9 villagers alive. Let's look at the continuation:
Day 3 a villager dies, (4-8)
Night 3 a villager dies, (4-7)
Day 4 a wolf dies, (3-7)
Night 4 a villager dies, (3-6)
Day 5 a villager dies, (3-5)
Night 5 a villager dies. (3-4)
From this point forward, village has to lynch a wolf three times in a row in order to win.

If we assume that 30% of the players were wolves, we'd have 6 wolves 14 villagers at the beginning, and we would now have 5 wolves and 8 villagers alive. Continuation:
Day 3 a villager dies, (5-7)
Night 3 a villager dies, (5-6)
Day 4 a wolf dies, (4-6)
Night 4 a villager dies, (4-5)
Day 5 a villager dies, (4-4)
The wolves win.

Those really don't look good for the village, and it would now be understandable why the wolves would sacrifice Saul. The only thing that could give us a realistic chance to win would be to lynch Saul but not lynch Muriel. Which would pretty much make Day 5 the same as I thought Day 3 would be, the odds being very high on Muriel being lynched and the village losing the game. Fingers crossed that Saul really is the seer and Kate really is a wolf, else it's going to be a tough road ahead of us once again.

[Muriel The Slow]

One point I forgot to make, why the fake seer claim now and not let Muriel die? I'm not sure. Only explanation I could think of is that setting up lynches for long term would considerably reduce the luck factor. The rest of the game becomes predictable, the plan would cover the game all the way to either a wolf win, or to a very strong wolf position, depending on their numbers.

[Know-Nothing Jon]

Ok, so you think Will is a friendly neighbor? Wow, what an amazing insight... I really have to wonder why you felt you were the only one who could possibly have figured that out. I also don't understand why you assign it such a great significance. Basically you're saying that Will must be a wolf since the person who vouched for his innocence is dead. But there's no logic to that, beyond paranoia.

There is an element of "too good to be true" about Saul being a seer who was able to get in a second scan after practically claiming that he's a seer. But that doesn't change the fact that we need to lynch Kate and take it from there. And since she said she should be scumhunting today but just disappeared, I feel pretty good about our odds of hitting a wolf.

[Widow Edith]

Will is the friendly neighbor. During nights, he can visit a player and they will receive a PM from the game master that says Will is a villager. This is why it was Will who visited Bert (as confirmed by John), but Bert who called for Will's innocence. Normally this role is always a villager role and benefits the village. A wolf being the friendly neighbor would be a bastard role, which explains Bert saying that the game master is a bastard if Will isn't a villager. And sadly, this might be the case in our game. Will would rather coast through as a confirmed villager, than explain everything and give village more information, and also bring up the fact that he isn't a confirmed villager after all. Bert was a good night kill even without this situation, but he also wouldn't be able to explain the interaction when he is dead, and the rest of the village hadn't shown any signs of having it figured out. I think there is a good chance that Will is a wolf.

I have some problems with your theory. Why would scum which (according to your theory) have already a "confirmed" villager in Will risk Saul to get 1 villager kill in? Even if they manage to kill you too I see little to ain here. Second I doubt there are 6 scum in the starter-pack that would be insane especially if Will is a bastard-role. Remember this is not a "everyone has a power"-game.
Thinking about that I find it hard to believe that Will is a wolfy friendly neighbour. Does anything in his talks with you support the "he is a wolf-theory"? If so can you share them?

Or does you line

and the rest of the village hadn't shown any signs of having it figured out.

mean that you are speculating about his power and building your case on it.