Oh on bad cases, I really don't think Azarius is faking the jailor claim. Would be way to risky a move to pull from scum. Saying he may have had another role that he used visiting Novice is pushing plausability a bit too far.
(September 4th, 2013, 16:47)Jowy Wrote: I've pretty much taken my town leans off of everyone who were on MJW, because it would have ultimately lead to two villager miss-lynches next.
Please clarify this. What would have led to two mislynches? Your reads? I don't mean to be snide, but I don't really get what you're saying.
(September 4th, 2013, 16:47)Jowy Wrote: So maybe Azarius is the only village of the three, and novice and zak are a scum duo, which would certainly explain their early game shenanigans.
What early game shenanigans? Also, picking three players and arguing that one of them is likely innocent is not a great way to prove that the other two are scum.
(September 2nd, 2013, 15:23)novice Wrote: IIRC, Jowy and MJW were both pursuing Zak for his No lynch opening post at a time when nobody else seemed interested in that case.
They did, and I think this can probably be counted as a point in Jowy's favor, since it's a bit unlikely that they'd double up on me like that at a time that they really needed the votes to swing away from MJW. Though I'll need to reread it in context to say for sure.
Having reread, I have to rescind my town point. Jowy's sudden vote for me in post #94 actually came after Azarius had placed a second vote on me. So that makes it look a lot more opportunistic, and I don't think he would shy away from voting with MJW in that situation. Incidentally, his vote put me in the lead, tied 3-3 with Mattimeo. Something to keep in mind if Jowy flips scum.
Instead of responding to what novice said, I thought I'd dig through Jkaens posts.
These are all of JKaens posts that have mentioned MJW (thanks novice!). I cut down the one that multi-quoted me tons because nested spoilers don't work and it got messy, but feel free to follow it.
(August 26th, 2013, 01:34)Jkaen Wrote: Well MJW is still acting like himself - suggesting really odd and poorly thought out theories.
If the town only lynched every other day, then what we are doing essentially is making the wolves have twice as many kills for no benefit, how on earth does that possibly help the town?
Somebody who I would hope would know better is zak. ASSUMING 3 wolves, having no lynch right now may well make no difference (not done the maths), but what if we get a roleblock in one night? surely that would change the figures.
I think any chance we have of hitting scum should be taken unless we have a very good reason not to
Suggesting and dismissing MJW.
(August 26th, 2013, 01:59)Jkaen Wrote: Zak,
You misinterpet me. MJW's suggestion was a much more extreme, and I believe a much more inadvisable version of your own initial thoughts.
I dont think your idea was crazy, just inadvisable, and given we are still under 20 posts this game, so far its the most anti village thing I can see to vote for
He doesn't find Zaks crazy like MJWs, but thinks Zaks (impossible to follow up) suggestion is more anti-town?
This does fit with how a lot of people (myself included) were dismissing MJWs posts just because they were MJWs, but still a bit weird.
[PLEASE NOTE: I do NOT want to start the no-lynch discussion again.]
(August 26th, 2013, 06:44)Jkaen Wrote: I will admit I am treating you and MJW differently, but that is because from prior experience it would be suspicious if MJW didnt post some bizarre theory I disagreed with, where as even if I disagree with what you say, I typically expect a logical path to your theories.
End of the day I have learnt (as you pointed out earlier infact) that acting 'anti-town' is not in itself a scum tell, it is acting differently than normal that is suspicious.
MJW posting that theory is normal, you posting yours felt slightly off
See above basically.
(August 27th, 2013, 01:27)Jkaen Wrote: Ok, I am starting to regret questioning zak for the suggestion in the first place. Its a scum tell in my mind but a very minor one that doesn't deserve to be the focus of the whole day. I had expected soething more obvious would pop up by now to start talking about.
If MJW's posts had been by anybody but him I would be voting there right now, critising zak's theory when I believe yours was even worse seems a bit hypocritical.
Classical_Hero (going to call you CH for the rest of the game because I am lazy), I would also be interested in hearing how you think RB werewolf is played differently, you seemed to suggest not noticing the PM was why you were slow to post in this thread, but now you are aware it is started can we expect more activity?
Again, mild suspicion there. This seems to be a bit of a build up to a vote though, like edging up while leaving options open to vote others.
(August 27th, 2013, 05:26)Jkaen Wrote: Well, we at least got 1 more post out of Serdoa, and truth be told I am not going to push hard for a day 1 policy lynch.
The MJW train as has been pointed out is just so obvious as a day 1 safe bet for votes, I can't bring myself to vote there as he is generally just a mislynch waiting to happen.
Mattimeo however complains about the discussion being all on zak's post, then mentions nothing else in his email, finally (as the last person of the day) voting the easy MJW. Also Serdoa and MJW mislynches tell us pretty much nothing, if we do end up wrong on Matt, then there is at least a link through to Gazglum that we can poke at a bit
Mattimeo
Not a brilliant case, but best option I can currently see day 1
Discrediting the MJW push, saying no to policy lynchs and then joining a wagon that was at least half a policy lynch.
(August 29th, 2013, 05:17)Jkaen Wrote:
(August 29th, 2013, 03:30)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Why not mattimeo is easy. At least mattimeo voted for someone! C_H just made a joke vote on Az and so effectively did'nt vote which is quite bad.
Are you attacking somebody for voting CH yesterday and not Mattimeo here?
Slightly passive-aggressive attack on a post that I think is vaguely obvious.
(August 29th, 2013, 05:43)Jkaen Wrote: To explain a bit better what I am talking about with regards Qgq, its probably worth me checking my gut feel from his posts.:
......
When I say target I mean post about in a negative way.
Having done that exercise its not quite as scattergun and random as I had the impression, as the same names do seem to crop up in different posts quite often.
I think MJW seems to be changing his story as he goes along now, and I am wondering if he is hiding behind his reputation. MJW can I have a summary of your current feeling on the different players, because quite frankly I have no idea what you are thinking currently
(crossposted over the Mattimeo/Azza conversation)
Now jumping on MJW for what he was saying before. What he means by changing his story I don't know, I would've expected that to be quoted at some point. Feels much more of a pressure vote for reads then I thought at the time, rather then an actual push, regardless of whether his view changed later.
[says nothing until lynched, at some point says he was on line but not posting during the lynch]
(September 1st, 2013, 05:44)Jkaen Wrote: Day 1 I felt MJW was just his crazy self again with the zak issue.
But then more and more wierd theories started coming up and I started to suspect he was overplaying his reputation a bit, so my vote went on him to try and explain himself so I could pin down his actual thoughts to then counter follow up ideas of his. However his big post basically said nothing, so I decided he was trying to fence sit too much, hence good chance of scum.
Cant remember the exact details, but from memory the hypocrisy was him saying people were scum for doing X when I felt he was doing the same thing.
This very much seems a post made from retrospect, and also goes along with a lot of what other people were saying. Doesn't mention changing story which was his thought earlier.
Having reviewed it it feels a lot like he either jumped on MJW breifly and then didn't feel like changing to any of the others, in which case why not push the lynch that you felt was good chance of scum, rather then letting it stagnate as it did? (I know he was inactive because of the weekend, but still, he didn't even comment.) Or it feels like he wasn't in fact online which is why he didn't push it at all (in which case he lied but wanted to appear to have had more support behind the lynch).
His whole push seems to be trying to leave it open to jump back off MJW or give him a way out, and then just playing like he had been pushing him at all - whereas he basically goes from saying that MJW is begging to be lynched but probably village (dismissing a lynch while not connecting overmuch/overtly) to saying that MJW is changing his story (never substantiated or revisited) and hiding behind his rep (definitely agree )/not contributing. That change looks to me like he's posting fluff about possibly hitting MJW to distance and then places the vote without intending anything gets behind it, and then getting stuck later on a fellow scum lynch. Jkean
I'm not sure how much this fits with earlier impressions, I've been reading Jkaen mostly townish this game. I probably need to revisit everyone individually.
[There is no way I'll ever have time for that though I could probably write up impressions though]
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
So what you are saying is you agree with pretty much everything I say... therefore I must be scum?
Also I don't see the bit where I am lying at all. I can't see anything I have posted that contradicts anything else, are you really telling me that just coasting into a day 1 MJW lynch isn't the easiest laziest thing we could have done?
Oh and for Novice's tally thing to work properly I guess we have to get into the habit of spelling everybodies name out in full (correctly) when posting lynch votes
(September 2nd, 2013, 15:52)Gazglum Wrote: I don't know if it will make a difference at this stage, but I can address one aspect of my play that was pretty schizophrenic. I turned on Azarius so savagely at the start of the day because i had tracked him to Novice during the night. Given scum seemed to have been blocked, and Novice seemed an obviosu target for scum, that implied that either Azarius was a jailer or a failed assassin.
Why would a failed assassin be seen visiting me?
If you were jailed/baned (as you were)?
Rereading it now, two days layer, I also wondered at first what I meant with my question to Gazglum. But if you read the bolded parts you see what I mean. Gaz assumes scum were blocked, but if Azarius was a failed assassin who got blocked, why would he be seen visiting me?
I guess when Gaz said "blocked" he also included "tried to kill someone that was protected". When I hear "blocked" I think "targeted by a roleblocker/jailer".
The rise and fall of the MJW day 1 wagon. Quotes are generally trimmed down a bit.
#50: Q votes MJW but moves his vote to Mattimeo in the same post.
(August 26th, 2013, 21:15)Qgqqqqq Wrote: MJW
You do need an average of one - if you get 2 one night and 0 another, that is what is wanted. What information is lost in it? And if a majority passes it, then it is through (which is contrary to what I was thinking earlier, but this has been clarified), so the chance of it failing is low.
I think it is unfair to policy lynch before seeing any sign of it, so suggesting it already is stupid. Azza doesn't even have the lowest posts.
#52: Azarius votes MJW. The first real vote.
(August 26th, 2013, 21:31)Azarius Wrote: I'm aware that much is expected of zak, but we're barely into the first day... Just what do you expect him to have accomplished at this point to "live up to expectations"? I mean really, all he did was float an idea that he himself said can't even be used due to the rules of this game. I don't see the harm in him doing that and this feels like a big overreaction. Your thinking on this just doesn't make sense to me MJW
#57: Novice votes MJW. MJW is tied with me and Mattimeo, at 2 votes.
(August 27th, 2013, 01:29)novice Wrote: I think MJW's reasons for voting Zak are poor, so lacking other tells I could lynch MJW for bad reasoning/overaggressive pushing.
If we're policy lynching maybe we should lynch Serdoa. He seems to be too busy for this game, and I usually only home in on his scum persona through a process of elimination, which we may not have time for in this game.
MJW for now.
#64. Serdoa puts MJW in the lead, with 3 votes.
(August 27th, 2013, 02:28)Serdoa Wrote: Ok, that said, as for the actual game, I don't like MJWs play so far. Jkaen mentioned that he would vote everyone else if he had played like MJW but MJW has a different baseline. I agree in general, but in this case I don't think it applies. It's not some crazy theory that MJW has come up with, it is just him pushing someone for weak reasons.
MJW
#68. Mattimeo pushes MJW up to 4 votes.
(August 27th, 2013, 04:27)Mattimeo Wrote: MJW is just harping on too much about zak's initial suggestion, which is honestly not a terrible idea in a mountainous even-numbered game. Not that this is likely to be mountainous, but no-lynching is also not a legal option. I just don't see how spending the entire day talking about only that and policy lynching a new player is remotely helpful.
#81. Serdoa is the first to move off MJW, voting for Jkaen.
(August 27th, 2013, 10:38)Serdoa Wrote: I'm really feeling that both you and Gazglum are very insincere here and that you both hide something. I'm not completely sure on Gazglum yet while I still have to see anything from you that does not scream wolf. Therefore
Jkaen
#84. Novice moves his vote to Classical Hero, putting MJW out of immediate danger, with just 2 votes.
(August 27th, 2013, 11:40)novice Wrote: I will move my vote for bad play from MJW to Classical Hero. Voting for someone who is unlikely to get lynched does not cause a no lynch, it just hands the lynch decision to scum.
#88. Azarius moves his vote to me, leaving MJW with just the one vote from Mattimeo.
(August 27th, 2013, 12:32)Azarius Wrote: zakalwe I really don't like this from you at all. Saying I didn't correct the notion I was new implies that I have had a chance to since Mattimeo suggested it in post 76.
Mattimeo stays on MJW until the lynch.
Normally I'd be a bit suspicious of Azarius given his early entry and late exit, but he's got a strong role claim. Novice's entry and exit look pretty natural to me, and he was the catalyst for his actual lynch on day 2. So I think Mattimeo stands out as the most likely scum on this wagon, with a late entry and no exit. But I'm not convinced they would want to bus MJW like that on day 1, although it's possible they felt like he was in deep trouble. The alternative is that the wolves just played it cool and tried to promote other candidates while waiting for the wagon to disperse. In that case, we should look towards Q, Jkaen, and Jowy.
After factoring in the day 2 play, I can see Jkaen as scum. But I am also tempted to pursue Jowy, as he makes sense as a scum partner both with Mattimeo and with Jkaen.
)/not contributing. That change looks to me like he's posting fluff about possibly hitting MJW to distance and then places the vote without intending anything gets behind it, and then getting stuck later on a fellow scum lynch.
I could probably write up impressions though]
