You do have a tendency to come across as very annoying at times. It makes me a bit hesitant to vote for you, as it might be hard to mimic that tone as scum. On the other hand... maybe it just comes naturally.
In WW7, I mislabeled Roland as town because he perfectly emulated his own less flattering personality traits. And I did the same thing myself in Novice's HHGTTG game. So it's been known to happen.
(September 5th, 2013, 03:31)Jkaen Wrote: So what you are saying is you agree with pretty much everything I say... therefore I must be scum?
No. The scummy read is from your apparently abrupt switch to voting MJW, which you didn't explain until post-lynch (where you couldn't persuade him on) and then never pushing him for lynch when you apparently thought he was a good choice (post lynch). All in all the post where you vote him doesn't push him as a candidate (despite suspicion) and serves more as a pressure vote (which is never followed up, despite your apparently being online). Your post lynch post then sounds like you are exaggerating your own importance to it.
All in all though, you still sound very pro-town from your posts, and I suppose it could be a bit of disengagement with the thread and then playing what you'd thought if not what you wrote...
Heck, lets go with zak for now. Zak, what were your thoughts on MJW before you followed novice on?
Quote:Also I don't see the bit where I am lying at all. I can't see anything I have posted that contradicts anything else, are you really telling me that just coasting into a day 1 MJW lynch isn't the easiest laziest thing we could have done?
I have no problem with your day 1, only where it seems to contradict day 2. The lying point was about your being online but not posting despite feeling confident on someone for the lynch which you never voiced. That seems to say that, if true, your only reason could be if you weren't confident about his lunch but also unconfident about any others, which doesn't fit with you post-lynch post.
And no, I don't think we should've lynched him day 1.
(September 5th, 2013, 04:13)Jkaen Wrote: You are all assuming that the scum thought day 1 to keep MJW from going down. If I was scum I wouldn't touch that defense with a barge pole. You are asking for trouble defending somebody on day 1 who always run a high risk of getting lynched. plus day 1 swings all over the place anyway, why defend him as early as I did when there was always a good chance somebody would get bored and start a new train anyway.
Why wouldn't you defend him day 1, if that fits with a) your village persona and b) the way a lot of people were feeling anyway. That's not what I'm seeing at all, it looks to me like you were mentioning and dismissing it to try and let other lynchs grow naturally.
(September 5th, 2013, 04:40)Jkaen Wrote: And Qgq, you said you were going to re-read Jowy before placing your vote on the person you were pushing pretty hard yesterday. Have you had a chance to re-read yet and if so did it change your opinion?
No, I haven't
His posts today haven't enamored him to me though. I want to look at other options first, so I don't get stuck on him.
(September 4th, 2013, 16:18)novice Wrote: Now, scum lost a mislynch candidate but apparently got recompensed behind the scenes.
See Novice, that is not actually what Merovech has told us, he just said he fixed a game set up decision that wasn't balanced anyway in the first place.
Did you slip because you know that scum got some recompense?
[/quote]
Good point there. It does seem that scum would get recommpense though, given they lost a night kill.
(September 5th, 2013, 05:48)Jowy Wrote: Jkaen, I think that quote looks worse now because you dismissed Serdoa/MJW, which one was scum and the other died next night, and went after Matt who's looking very towny, and even a follow up on Gaz who we now know was town. That said, even though it looks bad, I don't really see it as a tell. Villagers can just as likely go after the wrong targets on Day 1, and in fact scum would know to avoid making themselves look too obvious when their posts are read days later. You are not one of my suspects Jkaen, though I have not re-read yet
Why is matt looking very towny? I believe I asked this earlier too...
(September 5th, 2013, 06:17)Jowy Wrote: Thought I should explain why I don't suspect Jkaen atm even though he was an MJW voter. He is in pretty much the same position as Azza was in my books. Their actions could fit for a scum, but they haven't really been caught doing anything scummy. So they aren't cleared, and could certainly be scum, but the odds are much lower because of the lack of scum tells. Speaking of Azza, I need to look over the votes. I find it really strange that Azza would get lynched before Gazglum. Gazglum was way scummier imo. Gotta check who voted for who and for what reasons, might give us a hint for today.
Though I didn't vote him, I think azza was much scummier. Despite the ill-timed role claim, which explained quite a bit of the scummy behaviour IMO, I thought he'd played well, pursuing cases and putting a lot of effort in. Azza was scummy for me because he wasn't contributing - even compared to normal - and was just posting a bunch of observations from the sidelines that often weren't backed up. The matt vote, for example, looked quite fishy.
(September 5th, 2013, 07:49)novice Wrote: I'll have little time for the rest of the day. Qgqqqqq can hold on to my vote.
Aww shucks
Ok, I'll bite, why?
(September 5th, 2013, 08:30)zakalwe Wrote: ....
This is a pretty silly retort. It's not like every possible scenario is equally likely. If Jowy is scum, I see two people who could easily be his scum partner. If you are scum, it is less clear who the other scum is. That doesn't mean Jowy is more likely than you to be scum. Although the main reason I chose to vote for you instead of him was that you already had two votes.
You seem to be withdrawing it at the end, but does this mean you think he's more likely scum then Jowy/matt? On the subject of which, why do you suspect matt?
Quote:
(September 5th, 2013, 04:13)Jkaen Wrote: [Barge pole post]
Well, I was arguing earlier that the wolves may well have tried to do just that; keep cool, and wait for it to blow over. I don't buy the "I would never defend him" argument. I think you would, if you felt like that was what your village persona would have done. Knowing your usual play, it would certainly have looked odd to me if you went "yeah, that MJW guy is always a distraction, let's lynch him!"
To me, the thing that's suspect about your play is how you maneuvered yourself onto MJW early on day 2, after not suspecting him on day 1. You said "he keeps changing his story" which to me looked and still looks like a pretty unfounded generic accusation, as I couldn't see any inconsistencies in what he was arguing.
This, basically.
Quote:
(September 4th, 2013, 16:47)Jowy Wrote: .....
[quote='Jowy' pid='413050' dateline='1378379002']
Wolves voting for their scum buddy MJW will then naturally lead the suspicion to the three remaining players who voted for Mattimeo. We now know at least 2 of those were villagers, probably Azarius too, so perhaps even three. For someone who likes to talk about the natural flow of the game, it is surprising that you do not understand this argument.
Although, here it sounds like you should be looking for people who wanted us to focus exclusively on Azarius/Azza/Gazglum, not people who were voting for MJW at some point. Not necessarily the same set of people.
I agree with this too. It seems a bit of a total reversal from yesterday too, and even though I understand you want to re evaluate, going from only suspecting matt voters, to only looking at MJW voters. While that is almost everyone left at this stage, it can't be used as an attack because of that.
On the subject of which, Jowy you never responded to this:
Quote:You say it only leaves zak as scum - do you see Jkaen/matt/I as impossible scum now? I don't get why the "long shot" theory about Azarius takes precedence over the very possibility of Jkaen/matt/I as scum. This seems likeyou'regetting too caught up in the theory that you're not looking at the possibilities.
Why is Azarius (who you conclude is very unlikely to be scum) more likely scum then matt, Jkaen and I?
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
Oh and I'm going ti be afk for a significant amount of time in the next few days because we're putting on a play. I'll try to look at the thread, but this may well be my last post for the next 20 odd hours.
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
Dead Players:
Lynched day 1: classical_hero, 2-shot village doctor, lynched Day One.
Killed night 1: Serdoa, 1-shot village alignment seer, killed Night One.
Lynched day 2: MJW - 1-shot break protection werewolf.
Killed night 2: nobody
Lynched day 3: Azza
Killed night 3: Gazglum - 2-shot tracker
I have been thinking a little. I typed up some more text on my laptop, but I can't get its network card to work properly, so here is the short version. I think there are too many power roles.
Azarius
The known tracking result is irrelevant. He wouldn't claim to have jailed Novice if he didn't actually do that, anyway.
Stupidly long day at work, and tomorrow isn't looking much better. I can follow from phone to some extent, but can't post much fancy.
(September 4th, 2013, 16:47)Jowy Wrote: It just couldn't be easy :P There is more to analyze now that we know the alignments of the two dead, but my top suspects are Azarius, Zak and Novice. Not sure yet what order would get us the most information. I've pretty much taken my town leans off of everyone who were on MJW, because it would have ultimately lead to two villager miss-lynches next. Now we only had to miss-lynch one of them though, thanks to the mistake, so that's at least a positive thing for us. Shouldn't forget about Q either, but I kinda think he would have tripped by now if he has a wolf, because of how much he writes. There were a few small slip-ups I thought, but no-one else agreed with me on them, so I guess I was jumping at shadows.
Now the "long shot" theory of a scum play with Azarius fake claim is much more relevant. But the thing is, those theories do assume that scum voluntarily no lynched in the night. I still question whether the scum would find it worth it to hand us one more miss-lynch in return. If Azarius really did block the night kill, then it was either scum trying to kill novice or novice being the one who was supposed to perform a kill in the night. Atm I only have three suspects. If Azarius and Novice are both village, that only leaves Zak as a wolf, but there should be two left, not one. And I also doubt Zak would want to kill novice because following novice is the perfect cover for him. So maybe Azarius is the only village of the three, and novice and zak are a scum duo, which would certainly explain their early game shenanigans. Novice seems to be the most likely to be scum in either scenario (whether Azarius' claim is true or not), so my vote is for him for now.
I'll have to re-read and see if it's worth it to bring any new suspect on the table.
Jowy, I am interested in why you feel novice is more likely a wolf then zakalwe of the two. Also, I have a town lean on Q, but if you do feel he is scummy, then I wouldn't say you should give that up thinking he would have given himself away by now. I think he is definetely capable of playing a strong scum game, I just don't think that's the case personally.
Novice, you bringing up who Serdoa was targeting before his death against Jkaen isn't the first time you've followed this train of thought. The people whom Serdoa was on the closest to his death were yourself and zakalwe though. If this is a strong tell for you, why no suspicion of zakalwe because of it?
Inspired by the vote tally of previous days that was posted, I went back and looked at day two more. It struck me that there was only the one scum on Mattimeo, so at least one scum was on MJW obviously, and unless they had made a concious effort to bus him, Mattimeo's is the only vote left. And it seemed even more odd that Mattimeo hadn't moved his vote he had made at the very beginning of the day. I am aware he probably wasn't able to be around for the end of the day movements, but it sure does look awfully lonely sitting there. Maybe at the point he was able to check in, the only real option was MJW, but it was still early enough he was hoping the wagon might move? In this post
(August 30th, 2013, 14:59)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Mattimeo is the only person to have more then one vote on him so I have to go with him.
Novice, I've been scum hunting by trying to kill Zak all day long.
MJW bothers to point out the obvious as to why he is voting Mattimeo in self defense, which strikes me as odd. Here
(August 29th, 2013, 03:30)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Reading Gaz's post I have to point out that Serdoa's biggest targets when he as night killed was novice and zak. So the rest of your post does'nt follow logically anymore. Why did'nt you follow the night talk? You still have to answer some other questions though.
(August 28th, 2013, 22:30)Qgqqqqq Wrote: GG serdoa
I agree that gazglum and jkaen look a bit worse after that. I agree with novice that he has seemed rather focussed on one target. I would like to hear more thoughts from matt though.
I'm not sure I really understand your play MJW - what is your stance on zak? Is it a weak read that merely noticing that classical_hero had 4 posts was enough to shift you, or was it simply that you couldn't get support?
If the former, why not mattimeo, who also had 4?
Why not mattimeo is easy. At least mattimeo voted for someone! C_H just made a joke vote on Az and so effectively did'nt vote which is quite bad.
I felt that kill Zak was unlikely after the mod updated the lynch counters. Only Jowy (who was Muriel the last game and therefore would have low influence in this one) and I were on him. So I considered other options and found C_H and Mattimeo to be better lynchs that Zak for not even playing the game.
Zak's suggestion was quite bad even to think of--very unlike his villager self. It's gimmicky. I feel that no-one really acted out of character though (expect C_H as we had no baseline for him). So I pushed Zak. The fact that Serdoa attacked him before he did does'nt do him any favors ether. Other then the metagame his posts seem slightly strained.
he also dismisses Qs question out of hand, saying it's an easy choice because he didn't joke vote. His vote was just a throwaway for MJW with seeming really weak reasoning at the time, and after he is prodded by Azza about it, says here
(August 29th, 2013, 05:26)Mattimeo Wrote: ...and apparently I fail at quoting
intended post:
(August 29th, 2013, 03:08)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Well, everything is finally working...
I think we have to kill Mattimeo today if he does'nt begin to post crap
Well, I was going to post something useful, but I guess I'll have to restrict myself to 'crap' now
(August 28th, 2013, 14:06)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: The people who are don't like are the pack of lurkers (including Mattimeo) and Zak.
And I finally get a mention as part of the lurker pack? I thought you'd forgotten about me all of the last day, talking about policy lynching people who'd posted more than I had for lurking...
(August 29th, 2013, 01:31)Jkaen Wrote: Well losing 2 key power roles this early sucks pretty badly, interseting they went for Serdoa.
Interesting? What are the other targets? novice, I suppose. zak would be similarly high priority, but I'd also think he'd actually be easier to lynch than Serdoa given this D1. The rest of us? Maybe Gazglum would also be worth a kill in a vacuum. Or MJW if you think removing the annoyance is worth also removing the distraction. The rest of us you need a reason, and you don't generally have one N1.
(August 28th, 2013, 23:48)Gazglum Wrote: I’ve said a lot of times that I don’t think scum are the ones talking wild theories or super lurking on Day 1, they’re more likely to play like Mattimeo, Serdoa or Novice were – chiming in without rocking the boat. You may disagree with that, but I have form arguing that in previous games.
quoted in the same post:
(August 27th, 2013, 10:38)Serdoa Wrote: That's pretty much one of the worst posts I've read so far in this game (together with Jkaens). Gazglum completely ignores what several people have listed as reason to vote for MJW, which is exactly that his behaviour in this game is NOT similar to his normal behaviour. Now I don't say he has to agree with that assessment. But not arguing that point, not even mentioning it, is scummy. It might very well be that MJW is a villager, but Gazglums defense here reads more like a wolf finding an easy point to make, hoping to earn village brownie points.
Direct attacks like that aren't 'rocking the boat' now?
(August 28th, 2013, 20:10)Azza Wrote: For someone unlikely to be on at the deadline, it seemed like a clear self-defense vote disguised as scum hunting.
...there was an attempt to make it look anything like scum-hunting?
Certainly wasn't any attempt to pretend I was scum hunting D1. More putting my vote where it would do the least harm, given a need to actually put it somewhere. I seem to recall already spelling that out in justification, too.
that he was just parking his vote somewhere it wouldn't do harm. Maybe trying get an early vote in on a scumbuddy not expecting to catch any flak for not really backing it up? I called him out on his not scum hunting comment in this post
(August 29th, 2013, 05:26)Mattimeo Wrote: ...and apparently I fail at quoting
intended post:
(August 29th, 2013, 03:08)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Well, everything is finally working...
I think we have to kill Mattimeo today if he does'nt begin to post crap
Well, I was going to post something useful, but I guess I'll have to restrict myself to 'crap' now
(August 28th, 2013, 14:06)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: The people who are don't like are the pack of lurkers (including Mattimeo) and Zak.
And I finally get a mention as part of the lurker pack? I thought you'd forgotten about me all of the last day, talking about policy lynching people who'd posted more than I had for lurking...
(August 29th, 2013, 01:31)Jkaen Wrote: Well losing 2 key power roles this early sucks pretty badly, interseting they went for Serdoa.
Interesting? What are the other targets? novice, I suppose. zak would be similarly high priority, but I'd also think he'd actually be easier to lynch than Serdoa given this D1. The rest of us? Maybe Gazglum would also be worth a kill in a vacuum. Or MJW if you think removing the annoyance is worth also removing the distraction. The rest of us you need a reason, and you don't generally have one N1.
(August 28th, 2013, 23:48)Gazglum Wrote: I’ve said a lot of times that I don’t think scum are the ones talking wild theories or super lurking on Day 1, they’re more likely to play like Mattimeo, Serdoa or Novice were – chiming in without rocking the boat. You may disagree with that, but I have form arguing that in previous games.
quoted in the same post:
(August 27th, 2013, 10:38)Serdoa Wrote: That's pretty much one of the worst posts I've read so far in this game (together with Jkaens). Gazglum completely ignores what several people have listed as reason to vote for MJW, which is exactly that his behaviour in this game is NOT similar to his normal behaviour. Now I don't say he has to agree with that assessment. But not arguing that point, not even mentioning it, is scummy. It might very well be that MJW is a villager, but Gazglums defense here reads more like a wolf finding an easy point to make, hoping to earn village brownie points.
Direct attacks like that aren't 'rocking the boat' now?
(August 28th, 2013, 20:10)Azza Wrote: For someone unlikely to be on at the deadline, it seemed like a clear self-defense vote disguised as scum hunting.
...there was an attempt to make it look anything like scum-hunting?
Certainly wasn't any attempt to pretend I was scum hunting D1. More putting my vote where it would do the least harm, given a need to actually put it somewhere. I seem to recall already spelling that out in justification, too.
The bolded part of this I very much dislike. It certainly makes me feel better about leaving my vote where it is.
and the only comment he made on it was asking why Azza got me to answer it for him.
(August 29th, 2013, 16:20)Mattimeo Wrote:
(August 29th, 2013, 15:04)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Mattimeo:
Crap really means stuff.
Wait, really? I... I had no idea...
(August 28th, 2013, 18:44)Merovech Wrote: Hmm, I was hoping to save red for if a scum ever dies, but I can find a better blue, like the one we used for mayor votes.
(August 29th, 2013, 03:40)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Strange post by the mod at #167 say "if a sucm ever dies". I don't think anyone is bound to be lynched so this post only proves that a wolf was not caught by a watcher or something like that.
(August 29th, 2013, 04:53)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: The mod would say something like "when a wolf dies" or "the color for wolfs" if he knew a wolf was doomed. For example a watcher catching a wolf killing Serdoa would do it. Even if the wolf somehow escapes the first day he's screwed when the watcher's role flips. He would not say "if a wolf EVER dies".
(August 29th, 2013, 14:45)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: If a wolf got busted then I would eat my hat if the mod used "EVER". That makes no sense if he knows a wolf is going down. Period.
In what possible way would it make any sense for a mod to deliberately give away a scan result like that? You are stretching your horrific logic even further than usual. Why?
On the plus side, I suppose it's a good tell - if I ever understand a point you're trying to make, or worse yet, agree with one, then I'll know something's gone drastically wrong and you're probably scum...
(August 28th, 2013, 20:10)Azza Wrote: For someone unlikely to be on at the deadline, it seemed like a clear self-defense vote disguised as scum hunting.
...there was an attempt to make it look anything like scum-hunting?
Certainly wasn't any attempt to pretend I was scum hunting D1. More putting my vote where it would do the least harm, given a need to actually put it somewhere. I seem to recall already spelling that out in justification, too.
The bolded part of this I very much dislike. It certainly makes me feel better about leaving my vote where it is.
Was wondering how long it would take someone to point that out. Any particular reason why Azza got you to field it, rather than continuing the cross-examination himself?
I'd still like an answer to that btw.
I know Mattimeo has a reputation for lurking, but I am not able to contribute nearly as much as I'd like to be able to, and I still have twice as many posts as him. The mod has more posts than him. Perhaps he is capitalizing on his lurky nature to try to keep focus away. Today for instance, he just made the one post. A scummy post at that. He votes novice because my role roleblocks as well as protects. No case beyond that, no other reasons. I don't find this scummy because I think his conclusion is necessarily wrong, I am second guessing myself on whether or not novice might be scum just playing a blinder. It's just a throwaway vote with no explanation, without adding anything that everyone else doesn't already know. Voting like that does not help the village imo. I feel that currently Mattimeo seems like the best bet.
Zak, were you thinking a little that you'd like to have me out of the way before you had to worry about your night kill? I obviously disagree with your conclusion in this case, but I'd disagree with your reasoning here no matter who you were applying it to. Four limited power roles out a presumed nine villagers, and knowing the wolves have at the minimum one power role of their own, does not seem like too many power roles. Assuming we didn't have two of them killed off by the first night, heck even if all power roles lived to use all their shots, it does not seem unreasonable to me, especially considering I think it likely the wolves have at least one more power role themselves.
Azarius, if the setup makes such perfect sense to you, why didn't you switch off Gazglum following his claim?
"Too many power roles" was the short version. To elaborate, the town got both a cop, doctor, and tracker. The wolves got a break protection werewolf (i.e. a strongman), which helps to counter the doctor. Without that ability, the doctor would be able to protect the cop while the cop investigated. So the strongman is a natural counter. An alternative would be to give town a jailer instead of a doctor. In that case, the jailer would be able to protect the cop, but not without rendering him impotent. So having both a doctor and a jailer for town seems slightly redundant. It also gives town three separate ways to directly nail a wolf using a power role. On the other hand, a scum roleblocker would fit the setup nicely. That would leave a strongman and roleblocker on the scum side, facing a cop, doctor, and tracker on the town side.
(September 5th, 2013, 14:51)Qgqqqqq Wrote: Zak, what were your thoughts on MJW before you followed novice on?
I was a bit exasperated with his persistence on the no lynch argument, but I didn't really think he was acting out of character. What Novice made me realize was that even though I hadn't seen him slip up or do anything outright scummy, I hadn't seen him do much actual scumhunting, either.
What is clear, in my opinion, is that MJW made a real effort on day 2. So I really don't think it was a planned bus. He posted an angry face as his final post and I have a feeling that was a genuine reaction. I think the only way that Novice is scum is if Jkaen or Q is also scum, and they decided on a whim to go for a big helping of town cred. Otherwise, Novice's switch to MJW is just not worth it, as he and MJW could easily have ensured a mislynch by teaming up on Azza (or on Mattimeo, if he's innocent).
