WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[zakalwe]

You mean no-kill. Yes, either that, or they used some other ability that prevented them from night-killing.

There are some other changes, but they were behind the scenes and mostly just rectified a game set-up decision that wasn't correctly balanced in the first place.

I just remembered this, though. Merovech actually admits to making an unbalanced setup here. In that case, trying to reason about the setup might be futile to begin with. (Doesn't change the fact that Azarius insists it is balanced, though.)

[Jowy]

That argument is pretty meta. I agree with you that it is a possibility that what you speculate could have happened, but I don't think that trying to analyze meta gets us anywhere. We are just as likely to draw the wrong conclusions as the right conclusions from that meta.

I'd like your opinion on a thing I've been contemplating. Shouldn't we let Azarius live one more day to confirm his alignment? If he is a villager, he will get killed in the night. He can't jail himself, so he is the only sure kill for the wolves (unless the one who commits the kill gets jailed the same night). It also removes the jailer, obviously. It seems like a no-brainer that Azarius gets killed if he is a villager, unless the wolves try to bluff. But would they take that risk? I don't know, I probably wouldn't. So if Azarius is still alive the next day, then we lynch him. Would that play make any sense?

[zakalwe]

It doesn't really make sense when you phrase it like that. If we make a solemn pact to lynch him tomorrow if he's still alive, you can be sure that he will survive the night if he is innocent. But you could argue that he should be given more time since he has a fairly high chance to die in the night. And if he doesn't, then you promise to reevaluate him tomorrow.

That said, if he is the scummiest player around, then he is the one you should lynch.

What part of my argument is pretty meta? The whole thing, or just the part about Merovech admitting to an unbalanced setup?

What do you think about Mattimeo?

[novice]

Novice, you bringing up who Serdoa was targeting before his death against Jkaen isn't the first time you've followed this train of thought. The people whom Serdoa was on the closest to his death were yourself and zakalwe though. If this is a strong tell for you, why no suspicion of zakalwe because of it?

No it's not a strong tell. Truth be told I just piled what I could remember of damning circumstances onto my JKaen vote to see what shook out.

God, I'm hung over.

Mattimeo

[Jowy]

On the subject of which, Jowy you never responded to this:

You say it only leaves zak as scum - do you see Jkaen/matt/I as impossible scum now? I don't get why the "long shot" theory about Azarius takes precedence over the very possibility of Jkaen/matt/I as scum. This seems likeyou'regetting too caught up in the theory that you're not looking at the possibilities.

Why is Azarius (who you conclude is very unlikely to be scum) more likely scum then matt, Jkaen and I?

I haven't said that. I did say something about Azarius and Novice both being scum being unlikely, since we now know Azarius did visit him in the night. Though I realize there is one problem with my thinking: I originally thought that if they were both scum, they could just lie about where Azarius went, and he could use his ability (whatever it is) on someone else. But actually we did have a watcher, so I suppose the scum could have been smarter than me and remembered that such roles exist and they probably shouldn't lie if they can just visit one another. As for your actual question, I found Azarius had more scum tells. I really really did not like his lurking when MJW was lynched, and I think the timing of his reveal only benefited himself and not the village. His early game was low content. And now that Azza and Gaz are dead and rolled villagers, he looks even worse. My thoughts on you are basically that you've put a ton of effort into this game, and I've been told that as a wolf it is harder to contribute and think of things to say, so it wouldn't make much sense that you up your game tremendously for a game where your objective is to hide and survive rather than catch wolves. That's why I have Azarius, Zak and Novice as higher suspects than you.

Oh, and to answer the original question, I don't see anyone as "impossible" to be scum. If others (or I) find something that makes those people you mentioned scummier than they look now, then they will go higher in my list. I think in general it is always best to lynch the scummiest. Sure, the least scummiest person in the game could be a wolf, but you can't lynch everyone and it is a game of odds.

It doesn't really make sense when you phrase it like that. If we make a solemn pact to lynch him tomorrow if he's still alive, you can be sure that he will survive the night if he is innocent. But you could argue that he should be given more time since he has a fairly high chance to die in the night. And if he doesn't, then you promise to reevaluate him tomorrow.

That said, if he is the scummiest player around, then he is the one you should lynch.

What part of my argument is pretty meta? The whole thing, or just the part about Merovech admitting to an unbalanced setup?

What do you think about Mattimeo?

Okay, about Matt. Let's consider for a second that the wolves did not sacrifice MJW. The two who are still alive and didn't vote for MJW are Mattimeo and Azarius. However, if Azarius was not the one to block the night kill, then that means the wolves chose to no-kill in the night. Why would they be ready to no-kill in the night and give the village an extra miss-lynch in return for a good cover, but wouldn't be ready to sacrifice MJW? I can't see both of them being wolves, which means that at least one scum was on MJW. And if Matt was a wolf, why would he not vote for MJW since the other wolf is on MJW and they clearly aren't trying to save him?

Using the setup as a tell was meta, and meta that wouldn't help us. I think saying that there are more or less roles than there are supposed to be, or saying that the game is balanced or unbalanced, is completely a guessing game since so many roles are unknown.

[Jkaen]

Zak, one thing your analysis on the power roles is missing is that they are all limited shot roles, given that the amount of roles becomes less impressive.

That also addresses why the wolves may not go after Azarius, he may be (and Azarius dont tell us if you are) out of shots already.

Also if jailor is a wolf role, then they tried to jail Novice (who gave no power role tells I have seen) and tried to kill somebody else instead? Just seems unlikely to me

[Azarius]

On phone. Zak I am aware a strongman type role is used to counter a situation where a cop protected by a doctor is free to investigate. When the cop only has one shot using that as an example is kind of misleading.

[Mattimeo]

Few days break (including launch of RII:TW) apparently effected motivation more than I thought. Probably more the fault of RII, though :/

The situation is increasingly reminding me of one my first games here, where I was jailor and 'saved' novice one night.
Actually slightly awkward for town that scum didn't get to choose their kill last night, would have been informative about Azarius.

zak and novice have been on the same target every evening, and it's always been the lynch. Don't know that we usually see them sheeping each other that much. Seriously think it's one of them (though probably only one), and my money is substantially on novice there.

Jowy I still have as solid town.
Azarius gets default town if novice is scum.

Leaves Jkaen and Qgqqqqq after novice. idk there atm.

[novice]

zak and novice have been on the same target every evening, and it's always been the lynch. Don't know that we usually see them sheeping each other that much. Seriously think it's one of them (though probably only one), and my money is substantially on novice there.

I haven't been sheeping Zak this game at all. So why are you voting for me?

[zakalwe]

Why would they be ready to no-kill in the night and give the village an extra miss-lynch in return for a good cover, but wouldn't be ready to sacrifice MJW?

This is kind of backwards. If they (Mattimeo and Azarius) are both scum, then they first failed to save MJW, and then decided to make a bold play on the following night. After the setback of losing MJW, they might well feel like they had to double down and go for a more high-risk high-reward strategy.

Also, Mattimeo could have been off-line at the day 2 deadline, regardless of his alignment. The swing towards MJW happened pretty late; long after Mattimeo made his last post of the day. So I don't think you can use the fact that he didn't move his vote to exclude any particular pairings.

@Jkaen. The targeting of Novice would just be for the towncred; it's what a town jailer might do, and when coupling that with a deliberate no-kill, he could take credit for stopping a night kill. Also, it's possible that his actual role is a roleblocker, and he just "upgraded" it to a jailer, since a roleblocker claim doesn't sound very townish in itself. If he was going to claim that he jailed Novice, he then had to actually block him, in case Novice had a night action.

I concede that it might be a better theory if we had some indication that the no-kill might not have been deliberate. In that case, you could speculate that Azarius just improvised a jailer claim, based on actually having roleblocked Novice. That would be a riskier play, but also less elaborate. Nobody has claimed any other ways to stop a night kill, though.

On phone. Zak I am aware a strongman type role is used to counter a situation where a cop protected by a doctor is free to investigate. When the cop only has one shot using that as an example is kind of misleading.

I don't think it's misleading. There was also a 2-shot tracker, and the situation is similar there. Besides, the point is that you don't want a setup where the town can just mass claim and win. Let's say Serdoa had been pressured to claim on day 1; the scum would then need the strongman role to kill him.