[SPOILERS] Back to Basic - Mardoc plays Augustus of China

[Mardoc]

Had a couple turns over the weekend, plus last night and this morning. Not much newsworthy yet, but I do have a little to report.

Well, when Ruff finished the Taj, my demos, especially GNP, started to look pathetic again . I'm of two minds there: on the one hand, GA production is quite real. The techs discovered, infrastructure built, maybe armies, all of that is real progress. On the other hand, the demographics are temporary, while my progress is permanent (barring invasion, anyway). My main worry is that Sian is now researching Rifling; cats and Chos and Knights and Longbows ought to be able to fight those off, but only at a nasty hammer exchange rate. Especially if he uses drafting. Fortunately, he's not there yet, and I'm getting not only sight of his cities, but even of his build queues now. So I should have warning if he's intending invasion. I do need to catch up to him before he decides I look juicy though.

Speaking of which: My EP econ progress is slow. My first attempt to convert a Ruffian city failed. I'll be trying again with the next missionary currently inbound. Remembered that one more significant factor in EP costs is whether you have a trade route to the city in question, so I'll be stealing from Ruff first, despite his greater EP spending. I've got 3K gold on hand ready to burn for EP, so I ought to be able to push the EP ratio close to 50% with him as well as Sian. Got a couple Spies nearly born, who will be heading to whichever Ruffian city converts first. I estimate my first stolen tech in ~10 turns, at the earliest. But after I get the pipeline started, I anticipate rapid progress.

My cities are growing up nicely. I'll be able to start the Forbidden Palace in Tarquin shortly, and the new cities are starting to get decent growth rates. Next turn I found my island city, which ought to be worth ~25 gpt in income (and 12ish in costs, but that's still net positive). My workers have finally gotten almost all my cities to only improved tiles, and my eastern Granaries are getting in play. I generally increase my gold rate by ~10gpt every turn; I'm not sure if that's good or not at this phase of the game. At least it's moving in the right direction.

GPP is looking better now that Nale finished its market and hired a merchant for now 9 GPP/turn. Haley's got a Great Merchant due in ~10 turns, so I'm debating whether it's worth hiring the merchant in Nale or not - ideally it produces something to combine with the Merchant for a GA of my own in ~20ish turns, when I've stolen up to new civics and am ready for some serious catchup work. I've also got the Library in progress - maybe I should instead spend the food on growth to become whipped hammers, and plan to hire Sages instead. Actually, on further thought, I really ought to do this; the Market is useful for the improved gold production now, but I really prefer to make the odds of a GA on schedule as high as possible.

I discovered that Meditation is required for Philosophy, and I don't want to spend a spy on such a cheap tech, so I had my Representation specialists research it. I'm now back to trickling beakers into Feudalism, and piling up more gold. Might look around the tech tree to see if there are any others like that I can knock out quickly.

I hope to have time to report with pictures tonight.

[Mardoc]

Finally have this going! A bit, anyway.



Also got lucky with an event this turn! That's about half a turn's worth of gold, for free!



Demos are still sad. Well, except of course for Crop Yield. And Population. And therefore there's still hope.


Another hopeful bit: Sian revolted to these civics in 1070. Which means, if I counted right, no more revolts while he's in Golden Age, not until he's got his three-man GA ready to go. The Palace move suggests that he's serious about Bureau, which means I don't have to fear drafted rifles anytime soon. We're probably in for a serious buildfest, which makes me happy . Sure, that's an excellent Bureau capital, but I should be able to handle that with sheer numbers as long as I have the time to grow them.






First new city in a while - also last new city for a while:



Bandana wasn't quite as helpful to my GNP as I'd hoped, only netting me +7 gpt. It looks like it doesn't displace Japanese trade routes, even though my total would be higher if it spread those more evenly.

Still, net positive for my cashflow on founding is always a good city to found! It can only improve from here. Looks like it'll be worth whales, too.

Speaking of luxuries, I cancelled my furs for wines trade with Ruff, now that I have wines of my own - offered him furs for dyes instead. He's only got one dye hooked at the moment, but he's got three inside his empire, so I expect him to agree.

And, city of the turn: Lien. I think this one's done with the . Time to grow onto all those lovely Moai Colossus tiles, instead.

[Mardoc]

Finally got the spread I need! . I plan to keep spreading Hindu far and wide, to give myself options and shrine gold, but this was the important one:




Looks like my first spy can get there in 8 turns, add 5 for stationary discount and I want my treasury empty in 13. I've enough gold for 10-11 turns of 100% EP, so I'll start burning it next turn. For the moment, it's all going to go against Ruff.

In other news, Sian finally ran out of Golden Age. Let's see how we stack up..



Um. Well, looks like we've still got our work cut out for us! At least our MFG is competitive...

[Mardoc]

So, I've got ~3300 gold stacked up. I expect to turn that into ~5500 EP. How much tech is that?

Well, the relevant EP cost equation is 1.5 * beakers * 0.6 (State Holy City religion) * 0.8 (open borders) * 0.6 (EP ratio predicted) * 0.5 (Stationary spy) * 1.X (distance mod, currently unknown)

That comes out to a ratio of 0.216 * 1.X EP required per beaker stolen. Or in other words, I should get 25463/1.X beakers from this little exercise. If I went for research directly, we'd be looking at probably 8000 beakers due to prereq bonus, known-civ bonus and the occasional library. As long as the distance modifier isn't too horrible, this is gonna be excellent .

Ruff could, if he's willing to spend on it, halve my reward by running Counterespionage, and potentially decrease it further by closing borders and spending his own cash on EP. But....he and Sian are neck and neck - can he really afford to spend that much for no tangible benefit of his own, just slowing me? On top, if he does too much of that, I can switch my investment to Sian for a while, wait out the Counterespionage mission's end, and come back to him. And realistically, the worst he can do is make my EP reward about equivalent ot the beakers I'll be getting. So basically this is a no-lose scenario for me now that I've gotten Hinduism in place - either I get a big discount, or I pay at parity.

On top, that's with my current situation of no EP production modifiers. Once I get Nationhood, or Jails, or Intelligence Agencies, or (ideally) all of the above, even a hostile Ruff can't keep me from getting a discount on my tech compared to research. Not unless he forces me to spend all my hammers on military instead of spies, anyway .

One more factor. That 0.8 factor for trade route is nice, but stealing from Sian has several offsetting advantages. First, the EP ratio with him is bound to be better, as is the distance modifier, both of which likely make the cost about even. Sian is less likely to to counter me. Ruff is easier to reach, since I don't need ships to get every single spy and missionary over to him, but I need to keep my options open. Once I'm past this initial surge, the only thing that will matter is who is currently spending to counter me. One more fun bit: if I keep the threat to swap open, that makes them both less likely to spend to counter me. It's one thing to spend a couple hundred EP and spy hammers to cost me several thousand beakers - that could be worth doing even in a three-way race. It's quite another thing to spend those EP to make me just switch targets temporarily.

One other interesting bit: adding Chinese culture to the city I steal from also results in a pretty significant discount - basically 50% *(my culture/Ruff's culture). Julio needs its library early, therefore, and is a good place to put more cultural buildings. I doubt I'll ever get a huge amount of culture into Hakodate, but even a 5% discount on the thousands of beakers I'll be stealing is a nice bonus.

So, that's the theory. What about the practice?

Targets: I have three high priority thefts, to start things off: Nationalism, Rifling, and Printing Press, plus appropriate prereqs. Nationalism is both an immediate boon to my EP production, and a nice security blanket for military, once I revolt. Printing Press is entirely economic, but I do have a lot of villages and towns and more growing every turn. Rifling, of course, would make me feel pretty safe, especially combined with Nationalism.

How to prioritize? I think it depends on the foreign military production for the next few turns, and also on my GPP production rate. I'd prefer to get PP first, Nationalism just in time for a GA, and delay Rifling til last. But if one or both of my foes starts serious military production, then the highest priority becomes enabling the draft and improving my draftable options.

What else do I need? I need a whole bunch more spies. I ought to be able to afford to steal a tech every turn or two, but spies have only 1 move, are teleported back to my capital upon success, and have to stay put for 5 turns before stealing for maximum discount. Just to keep up with my EP, therefore, I need something like 15 spies in constant motion. This assumes none are caught or fail their missions - I'd be happier with 20 on hand. Right now I have two.

I need to keep three Hindu missionaries either in motion or in queue, too. I still have three of my own cities to convert, and I figure I need at least 2 more Sianic and 1 more Ruffian city converted, minimum. More would be better - that minimum is just for EP econ purposes, but further spread gives the benefits of more cash in Haley and any other espionage I feel the need for - sabotaging spaceship parts, for instance

In order to keep spies and missionaries moving, I need a few more Caravels. Those can wait, however; no point in having empty hulls. Once I've got a steady flow of units ready for Sian, then I can build the ships.

Plus, of course, granaries and courthouses and markets and such. Probably even Libraries - EP econ doesn't work so great once you're caught up . And ChoKoNu's, because collateral is always useful.

[Mardoc]

Castles anywhere, by the way?

No, why would I? I don't think I've unlocked them yet, and anyway if I'm invaded at this point it would be gunpowder units, which...hang on, Commodore's not an idiot...lemme go read CFC to see what I'm missing here...

+1 Trade route?
+ 25% EP points?
Doubled by Stone?

So you're saying if I can scrape up 60 base hammers in my main commerce cities, that I can have 25% more tech? And, on top, more commerce going forward? Huh. I think maybe I should go ahead and do that! Even though they're partially obsolete now and become wholly obsolete when I research Economics, they still seem like they'll pay off big in the interim. I should have the EP econ in much better shape by the time I obsolete the castles, since I'll have Nationalism and the EP buildings by then.

Does mean I'll have to delay turning on my EP slider for a bit yet, but that's ok. Needed more time for my spies to get in position in any event.

Won't delay long, just long enough for Old China to get Castles up. Probably ~3 turns. Can't do this at perfect efficiency no matter what, and I'm getting perilously close to the point of tech today > more tech tomorrow.

[Qgqqqqq]

What's your GNP output at 100% espionage?

[Commodore]

Won't delay long, just long enough for Old China to get Castles up. Probably ~3 turns. Can't do this at perfect efficiency no matter what, and I'm getting perilously close to the point of tech today > more tech tomorrow.

Quibble: You're past that point if your rivals have Astro/near rifling on one hand, Taj and all that juiciness on the other, while you are not quite there on longbows. However, you seem poised to get away with it.

[Mardoc]

What's your GNP output at 100% espionage?

Not sure about GNP, but it's around 500 EP/turn, with a drain of ~300 gpt. My GNP will probably actually fall, assuming I don't get Castles up in time.

Quibble: You're past that point if your rivals have Astro/near rifling on one hand, Taj and all that juiciness on the other, while you are not quite there on longbows. However, you seem poised to get away with it.

Oh, heck, you're right. I can't rely on my opponents to keep making the mistake of leaving me alone. Not just for some incremental efficiency here, anyway. EP's going on next turn. I'll aim to get Castles up before I completely drain my treasury, but it's not worth delaying the catchup effort for a 15% increase.

Heck, just getting Nationalism earlier is worth more than that. Getting Printing Press earlier is probably similar. And this ignores the possiblity of preventing an invasion.

[Mardoc]

Well, Sian claims to have run a full 100% espionage turn. Not as bad as I'd thought. Going to let him have the lead there for the moment, and steal from Ruff as originally planned, but I need to get some spies onto his island just to ensure he's not building up Rifles.






As promised, I'm not delaying anymore with turning the gold into something useful. Or at least more useful than gold. Spies are still heading eastward. I'm building Walls in a bunch of places, to be followed by Castles, though, before I resume my normal operation. Nothing much new this turn, though. Just growing and such.

[Qgqqqqq]

High teching opponent wastes gold on espionage rather then beakers when they have no intent to use it economically and most of the visibility can be achieved simply with caravels, let alone spies == win for you, however annoying.
Especially considering you aren't even going to be stealing from him for a while.