WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Azarius]

*Lewwyn. I hate no editing sometimes.

[Gazglum]

Good morning everyone! I am very happy to see us all alive, at least in some incarnation.

Also, of the two kills, my money is on Lewwyn for the wolf target.

Definitely agree. As for the second attack, it could have been a serial killer, third faction, vigilante or Ryan hurting himself with some ability. With the clone system I am sure there are multiple methods of killing, so I'd say there isn't enough info yet to know.

PS - Zak is my pick among the skilled vets. But he has one town leaning point IMHO and that's probably enough for the benefit of the doubt even though he also has several posts I didn't like.

Sunrise, what was Zak's town tell that made you not want to vote for him?

Old Harry, you would be the first person I'd invite to drop by for a cup of tea and a chat today . Looking at this night post:

For the former I didn't really have time to get my thoughts together, but they were that I don't think Catwalk is scum and I thought Azza had just got caught up with the normal MJW-argument and was a null tell. Q was more suspicious than either and I'll probably vote him again if he's on the block tomorrow. The "I'm going to regret this" was because I've really got no idea if Q is scum or not and if he isn't and I jumped on at the last moment I'd spend even more time having to defend myself tomorrow...

Is this the same as saying that you think Q is currently most likely to be scum? It seems odd to pencil in a hypothetical like that so soon, not knowing who else might be a suspect.

[Lewwyn]

I suspicious of novice, Oldharry, Serdoa, sunrise and Jowy. I haven't decided yet who I'm going to vote for.

Besides myself, the rest of the voters on Azza, (Zak, Rowain, MJW and Bob) are all people I had village leans on before the end of the day. Zak from his first vote and subsequent Zakness, Rowain made a post I found village Rowain-y, Bob has made several great posts including the one last night about vigs. MJW has appeared to be MJW to me. Most likely innocent.


Speaking of great posts by Bob, this one is his attack on Azza. I bring this up because Serdoa's response is this This post does not make as much sense to me because I thought Bob's points that Serdoa attacks were valid. I think Serdoa is attacking Bob because Azza is under fire. He then tells Azza he should know better about MJW, but doesn't vote for him. Instead in the end he votes for Qg against Azza. To sum up Serdoa attacks Azza's attackers while shading Azza for cover and when that doesn't work he votes against Qg at the end of the day.

I think Serdoa is possible scum and should be on the block today.

-----

I will have more on my other suspects through the day since I think I'm definitely dead tonight without intervention.

[Bobchillingworth]

Maybe there is a serial killer?

I suspect this is the case, or a full-fledged 3rd faction with better-than-normal powers. Lewwyn is very likely village- killing vote on Azza (who had a valuable wolf power) gives him a serious benefit of the doubt. So I agree with Azarius that he would be a likely wolf target. And Ryan looks like a wolf, with his incredibly useless and untimely vote and defense of Azza (although if he was a wolf, he could have just voted for Qg, if Qg wasn't also scum). So, were I a third-party killer looking for a target, Ryan might be appealing, since I'd want to get the other faction out of the way quickly lest they start picking off my own members. That was a big mistake Selrahc and I made in the Planetfall game- we were great at lynching scum but screwed up badly with our night kills, and it meant we lost at the very end.


Alternative like MJW suggested is two scum attacks per night- but then why not just focus both on Lewwyn? Why would anyone want to keep him around for a day, where he'll have a day to vote and then might then get doctor or whatever protection in the second night? And why on earth would the commies spend their other attack on Ryan, of all people? It's not even like anyone could have a seer/devil/whatever result for him yet.


Or I guess a vig could have decided to shoot Ryan (or Lewwyn ), but I would fucking hope not after I presented my rationale for why a first-night vig attack would have been a terrible idea.



Actually, this quote from Azarius is weirding me out:

Also, of the two kills, my money is on Lewwyn for the wolf target.

Like, okay, this is the same conclusion I'm essentially coming to above, but you're just automatically writing Lewwyn down as the "wolf target" in such a way that blithely assumes the existence of a killer third party, without actually saying you think one exists?

Could it be because... you belong to that third party, and so their attack is so obvious to you that you figure it into your guess without explanation?

[MJW (ya that one)]

I'll have to go to bed right now so I'll just point out to bob that a player cannot lose more than one life per night.

[Azarius]

Bob, did you even read my next post after the one you quoted? I'm not assuming the existence of a third team. There could be any number of reasons for a second kill, especially in a role madness game. It's certainly possible, but I don't think we have enough information now to know. All that quote means is that of the two kills, assuming the wolves did one, that it was Lewwyn.

Q, reading back about you not voting for Azza to save yourself, I guess I misread what you had written. I thought you had said you thought we'd lynch you in the end, implying you were around to see the situation develop but did nothing about it. You actually said lynched, which fits with your explanation.

I think I'd like to hear some more opinions from spacetyrantxenu today.

[Bobchillingworth]

I'll have to go to bed right now so I'll just point out to bob that a player cannot lose more than one life per night.

Night attacks can't take more than one life. But if a faction had *two* night attacks, I am assuming they could just take both lives within the same night, giving the same effect as an outright elimination.

Bob, did you even read my next post after the one you quoted? I'm not assuming the existence of a third team. There could be any number of reasons for a second kill, especially in a role madness game. It's certainly possible, but I don't think we have enough information now to know. All that quote means is that of the two kills, assuming the wolves did one, that it was Lewwyn.

No, I didn't read that post since I was writing my own before it was up. Like I said, I actually agree with your assumption, I just find the fact that your sentence assumed a single wolf kill without any explanation or analysis odd.


Anyway, there's plenty of time to seriously press the people who look most suspicious from the first day (especially Serdoa, Old Harry, Gazglum, Ryan and Novice- Qg having been the other major lynch candidate), so while I'm casting votes around I'd also like to hear from Ichabod, specifically why you voted for Catwalk early on and then just sort of faded away. I think you voted for him because he... was enthusiastic in attacking (now suspicious) Old Harry? That doesn't really seem like a great reason to me to keep your lynch vote on somebody for an entire day.

[Lewwyn]

Bob the post you are looking for is this one.

In it Ichabod says OldHarry is a bit suspicious, but because he's new and seems genuine, anyone attacking him is more suspicious. He basically sets it up so attacks on OldHarry are scum attacks at lynchbait.

IMO you are correct it is a bit scummy by Ichabod.

I want to vote for Icabod too, but I want to keep some pressure on Serdoa. Though waiting for Serdoa to post is a bit useless because his defenses are so infuriating because he turns arguments around and just comes back at you like its your fault you can't understand him, when really you do. And then all the weaker players won't vote for him because he offers easier fare.

[Lewwyn]

Additionally, I think it is possible that scum have two kills but that they are not allowed to stack them on the same player. Or that if they do they resolve on the same clone. Thus we might see two deaths next night.

[Bobchillingworth]

Oh, and it would be nice if Mattimeo were to try actually contributing today, after his deplorable first-day performance where he failed to comprehend one of my "no lynch" theory posts and then essentially sat on his hands until lynch.