WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[zakalwe]

Sounds like we have Yaz to thank for some excellent troubleshooting.

Here is the post of mine that was lost, extracted from Xenu's pdf.

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I messaged Xenu, by the way. I hope he can confirm this.

Awww, my money was on Novice. You two would have made a fine Internal Security pair.

Ryan, do you have any reads or thoughts on the game that you'd like to share beyond "X is a killer" or "Y is not a killer"? It feels like you have focused almost exclusively on that so far. Also, what is the flavor name of your ability? (Apologies if you already answered this. It wasn't listed in Serdoa's spreadsheet.)

Q and Merovech, can we hear what you did last night?

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Now that Merovech has answered, I still want an answer from Q. And I'd like to hear Catwalk's action too.

I am still not sure if killing Ryan is best. If he is, in fact, village, his role is just so useful.

Well, I think the string of coincidences where he keeps visiting people who die is starting to be a bit long. Also, targeting Serdoa last night seems awfully convenient. I don't think he was the player that we most urgently needed to clear.

BTW, we really need to hear everybody state the flavor name of their ability. Then we can hear Xenu's result.

Looks like so far we have:

Ryan: ???
Sunrise: ???
Mattimeo: Levitation
Bobchillingworth: Throwdown
Jowy: Charm
Spacetyrantxenu: ???
Novice: Donation
Zakalwe: Machine Empathy
Catwalk: ???
Ichabod: ???
Rowain: Regeneration
Merovech: Energy Field
Q: Matter Eater
Serdoa: ???

Azarius: Pyrokinesis
Old Harry: Puppeteer
MJW: Polymorphism
Lewwyn: Teleportation
Gazglum: Electroshock
Azza: Uncanny Luck

[Rowain]

We are back and I revote: catwalk

Bob did scrub catwalk.

[Serdoa]

Rowain, can you explain this a little bit better? It's not that I can't imagine catwalk being scum (I can) but what are your reasons? Just that he was scrubbed yesterday and that we had no kills? Because that doesn't make much sense for me, he knew he was scrubbed so if he is scum someone else could have done the kill.

As for general game-theory: We do have multiple kills every night that we can't attribute to any townie so far. I don't think every scum has a personal kill-ability, we would have seen many more kills. The village SKs and they "internal security" that was put in place as soon as they were both dead does also hint to the scum just having the factional kill. If just one of them had a personal kill ability on top that would imo screw heavily with the balance (if the guy dies early scum is heavily weakened). Also Azzas role-text does hint to them only having the factional kill. I quote:

"Once per night on even numbered nights, you may use this power on any player. If you are performing your factional kill, and you use this power as well as your factional kill on the same player, any protection given to that player this night will fail, and the kill will go through."

Note how this does specifically state "factional kill" as the kill his ability will work with in conjunction.

That does indicate though that we do indeed have another faction or a SK. Ryan having the ability to find out who can kill does imo fit that, even better than his role would fit for scum. Which would also explain why he did the kills every night and not someone else. And why yet again we miss "his" kill this night, because his target was protected.

@Rowain

I do see your point about you protecting me N2 and me still losing a clone. I really only can explain that with a scum-roleblocker that blocked you because of the doc-bot item. That makes sense because at N2 they had no clue who had what ability. In fact they had no clue till after D4, so just last night was the first night that they knew who could do what - and I would actually not be surprised if they doubled up with Ryan on killing me, blocking on of those that protected me.

Therefore I still keep:

Ryan

[Rowain]

Now some theories/ideas I have

Code:

Premise: On N3 we had 3 kills with none of it beeing a vig-kill. So lets assume 3 as the standard number of killactions what does that mean?

N1 expected kills 4: confirmed blocks : 1 (Merovech saves OH) kills happening: 2 (Ryan, Lewwyn)  missing kills: 1  either double up or zak healed by Rowain

N2 expected kills 5: confirmed blocks 0  kills happening: 3 (Qg, MJW, Serdoa) with 2 of them vigkills (Qg, Serdoa) missing kkills: 2  1 of it good chance of beeing double up on Serdoa. people blocked/scrubbed:  Ryan, novice

N3 all expected scumkills happened 1 vigkill blocked

N4 no scumkill. 1 vig kill. people blocked:  catwalk, Serdoa - novice healed by Rowain or doubleup.

Considering the above (and using the Ichabod-theorem ) makes it for me quite likely that catwalk is scum.
Other scummie-possibilities are Ryan + novice.

[Jowy]

Pretty much what I'm thinking as well. There's so much against Ryan that I'm willing to risk losing a powerful role.

[novice]

Rowain, you refer to your role as healing, and it's called Regenerate. But IIUC it's a protection role, is that correct?

[Rowain]

About the mulitple factions: On one hand I have a hard time to see those fit with the winning-condition. OTOH without mulitple factions a doubleup is not likely.

But that leaves the question of the number of factions.

If there are 3 factions (which means 2/faction) then losing Azza reduces 1 team to 1 scum=> catwalk might be the lonely one.

If there are only 2 factions they might be only pairs afterall we had 2 compulsive vigs and get now a traitor team. OTOH the message of Brick might be simply telling us that we had 2 factions all along.

With 2 factions N2 could mean I was blocked and they used a delayed kill.

[Rowain]

Rowain, you refer to your role as healing, and it's called Regenerate. But IIUC it's a protection role, is that correct?

Healing is the fluff BRick used. What it does is it negates 1 kill happening to my target on that night.

[Ryan]

I already did Zak. I have x-ray vision. I can see the X in people souls that shows if they are mind of killing. I worked extra hard not to put assumptions in cause I prefer relaying on my ability as seer to mislynching someone. Il give a summary of my results Incase I still get lynched.

Lewwyn can kill
Bob can kill
Novice cant kill
Serdoa cant kill.

According to Bricks rules on first page all scum have the ability to kill as a faction ability. If I am a true seer and you guys see that. Then I am confiriming that both Novice and Serdoa arent scum unless I was blocked and heres the thing. In my mind , The current plan of the scum is to lynch me before I am able to the rest of them assuming that "bob and catwalk arent already scum who claimed vigi to hide from me". Then they will say that I was prob role blocked and kill novice and then Serdoa. Even thou if I was blocked I suspect Serdoa the most. Ive never seen him try this hard to get a seer lynched for a couple of days now. My other target would have to be Ichabod since he is doing the exact same thing and they haven't really agreed from the start. Bob stopped talking completely the moment I revealed his ability and went lurker mode as opposed to his first posting style which can be assumed that hes trying to make people forget about him. I was healed night two aka I was protected so keep that as a reminder that Merovech could have protected me and I think its really silly to think that the scum would make the role seer kill the targets he is targetting but oh well. If I get lynched im begging you guys to focus on the people diverting the conversation from bob, cat and trying to get me lynched. Maybe they honestly believe im scum but you guys dont have the option of keeping killer roles alive now.. I was opinion that Rowain was a good guy since I assumed he healed me night 2 but I take that back. If I survive tonight il be checking Ichabod next or Zak. Thats assuming Scum give me another night of targeting :P You guys need to realize that they cant kill me during night due to protection and roles and IF YOU KILL ME, your giving them a free seer on a platter.. Serdoa is prob gonna respond to this and tear it apart just to make sure im getting lynched :P

[Ryan]

Bobchillingworth If you guys are selling your seer this soon then welp :P I did my best this game.