WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Jowy]

Ryan you didn't answer me earlier. Why did you scan Serdoa last night?

[Catwalk]

And c'mon! Why would Catwalk claim his role preemptively? He essentialy made his role useless, if he's a villager. I admit that his role suck from most angles you look at it. But if it hits, it has a good chance of hitting scum (remember, at that time we didn't know about the village SKs), which is an awesome result. His action makes more sense as scum than as village, if you look at the possible results coming from it, comapred to a later claim.

Hey, Xenu, you know you can send a message back to me, right? I have an opinion about who you should scan tonight and I want to say it to you in private. Please, create a simple code in the message back to me, so I can say it to you still during night 4.

While we didn't know for sure about the village vigs at the time, we did have admissions of 3 killers. That's highly unusual, and led us to believe (correctly) that there was a high amount of town killers present in the game. That's what I based my claim on. I may have ruined my ability, but in addition to never being lynched I also have a history of almost never being targeted by scum at night. I reasoned that the value of getting town cred by revealing early was big enough to be worth partly ruining my ability. And now that I've been scrubbed once, I have a good chance of going through the rest of the game without being killed at night as I'm not worth the risk. If I can convince you that I'm town, I think that's worth more than a tiny shot at catching a killer (who may or may not be scum). I'm sorry that I've contributed little this week, I just haven't had the time and I've prioritized PB17 over this game.

I don't know about the case on Ryan. Were it any other person, I'd consider his repetitive taunting non-defense to be a big scum tell, but given what I've read about him it does fit his personality quite well. I don't think that him being a kill seer in any way gives him town cred, but it's not really grounds for lynching him by itself either. Ryan, I urge you to please understand that we have no certainty whatsoever that you're a town seer. In terms of meta speculations, it makes plenty sense to give scum a kill seer in a game with multiple town vigs and potentially more than one scum faction (I agree signs are pointing in that direction). Telling us that you'll be laughing at us when we hang a town seer is more likely to get you lynched out of spite. This is no ordinary game, and hanging you wouldn't be the equivalent of hanging a seer in a normal game.

Given that Ryan still has the chance of handing us scum (any unclaimed killer he detects should hang instantly), I don't think we should hang him tonight. If he is indeed a town seer, his chances should be pretty high by now. My favourite candidate for tonight is spacetyrantxenu. Along with the overeager use of the newbie card, he's been equally keen on using the busy lurker card.

Ichabod, your claim sounds fishy to me. Can you elaborate on what is meant by there being nothing useful to move? It seems to me there are plenty useful things to move, we even have items in the game. It's possible BRick felt like being a bastard mod, same as he did with Gazglum, but I'm sceptical.

I'm heading out for the evening, I hope to be back tonight. I just read your post Ryan, I think you should keep fighting unless you don't have anymore time today. Giving up is generally seen as a scum tell, and pretty much ensures you hanging tonight. To everybody else, what is the case on Ryan other than him being flaky and the fact that a scum kill seer fits with metagaming speculations? Also, what's that about a double scan Ryan? I'm still trying to read up.

[Catwalk]

Also, keep in mind that you're playing for your team even if they hang you. So even if you're going to hang tonight, discussing other candidates still helps your team (and therefore you) win.

[Ryan]

Like I said my opinions right now are on either you or Bob. The people I suspected i checked. Lewwyn was a vigi who suicided, Bob is still alive, Serdoa and novice are town. That's how I played. If I suspect someone I check them. I am also not being spiteful. I accept that I might very likely get lynched tonight. Most of you stopped talking and I wrote that post to ask you guys to keep discussing with the assumption that I might be town. So that you have a plan to follow up on. I dont my death to follow up with a novice or Serdoa lynch.. After I cleared them.

[Ryan]

If I understood corrently, If I am a town kill seer, and Serdoa is a town watcher. Does that mean Xenu is a scum role seer? or did I misunderstood his role. This is me speaking under the assumption I am lynched and town kill seer. I dont think town can have that many "seers, detective roles"

[Catwalk]

Ichabod, keep in mind that we very certainly have a least 2 scum-factions. So Ryan and catwalk could both be scum, despite catwalk thinking he has to claim because of the kill-seer. Also his claim could also have happened despite him being town in thinking that it would be the better way to do it. He didn't initially explain how his ability worked at all either.

I very specifically didn't want to explain how my ability worked, as that would render it useless prematurely. Scum may have guessed it based on my vague description, but I think I had very good reasons for keeping that to myself until I was pushed to make a full claim.

Ryan, there are plenty more options. Massive vote swings are not uncommon, and there's another 12 hours or so left until lynching. From what I'm seeing, the main reason people are lynching you is your attitude. For sake of sportsmanship and the off chance that you can avert hanging, give it your best so you can say that you went down swinging. If you want to accuse me, state a reason for it rather than praying others will randomly latch on to me. There are 2 others each voting on me and Bob, that tally matters quite little in terms of who might hang tonight.

I disagree with your last post about how many detective roles the town can have, in a game this big with everybody having a role that's easily possible. I do think that one of you scum, but that's by no means a certainty. Both of you fit a scum theory: You can detect town vigs (of which there seems to be a ton), and Xenu can guess at power roles. His role seems to be useless for purposes of determining alignment, there's no reason for anyone to lie about their flavour based on what we've seen so far.

[Jowy]

Ryan, both your and Xenu's abilities are not strictly pro-town. The game was set up in a way that makes it likely that we'll miss-lynch townies based on both of your results. Xenu could catch someone "lying" about their role, when in reality the GM just put in weird role names that don't match the actual role. You could catch someone as a killer, and as we've seen, there are a lot of town vigs that we might end up miss-lynching because of that. I think there is "space" for you both as town. That said, I'm 100% staying on you if you can't explain why you scanned Serdoa last night

[Ryan]

@jowy, I didn't see your post. I think I wrote it before but just in case. I voted Serdoa Because I don't think its towny to want to get a kill seer killed and I wanted to make sure if hes town. I had the theory that he is scum who is trying to kill me in the day over the night.

@Catwalk, I got that impression from previous games we played. I remember reading that there is something called to many seers on one side usually doesn't happen for balance sake. If town has both a kill and role seer. I think that's to much.

[Ryan]

cross post with jowy.

[Catwalk]

@Catwalk, I got that impression from previous games we played. I remember reading that there is something called to many seers on one side usually doesn't happen for balance sake. If town has both a kill and role seer. I think that's to much.

Did everybody have a power role in those games? You can't compare this game with any other game that isn't role madness. One thing I find suspicious, though, is how the clone roles duplicate each other but one is strictly better than the other one. novice has the weaker one, right? I don't want to resort to pure meta (and I know he's been confirmed as a non-killer by you), but that one just screams liar. I find this kind of crude duplication far more damning than perceived balance considerations.

I think your reasoning for scrying Serdoa horrible, but that doesn't necessarily make you scum. And it does fit with your non-defense play lately.