WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Catwalk]

I was extremely suspicious of Rowain for his Serdoa play. A notion that novice (and yourself, I think) shared, and which still baffles me. It was a terrible play, leading to a lot of noise and bad blood on consecutive days. You never want to do that as town. He did it anyway, his choice.

I found the Azza bussing to be the less likely explanation, and it's a theory we would have been able to gain more information on as the game progressed. I had Qg on my tail all day, do you think I'd pass up on a chance to hang him and save Azza? Bob would still have gotten the town cred he seemed to want on Azza, as it was a close lynch. The only plausible explanation I could see at the time was that Bob was third party. Given that option, there was no urgent need to hang Bob. He was out in the open to be lynched anytime if we found further evidence. Do you think my plays surrounding Bob make no sense from a town perspective?

Who else would you be willing to hang today, if anyone?

[Serdoa]

xenu

I like to hang seers.

[Jowy]

- I got scrubbed by fellow communist Bob on his last night for absolutely no reason, he needed no further town cred merely to survive his last night. This play only makes sense if he suspected I'd be able to kill him or Zakalwe.

I checked this out because it sounds pretty convincing, but turns out that Bob scrubbed you when he was at 4 votes against Ryan's 6. So he likely did it just to be as towny as possible and survive his last day. Also, if you were town, I don't think Bob would be scared of you killing Zak at night, since Zak had the village cover and can't even perform kills. If he was scared, he'd have to be thinking that you are lying to other townies about your role.

[Jowy]

Catwalk, I think some of your plays are weird whether you are town or scum

[Jowy]

Also, didn't they leave after the day, not the night?

[Catwalk]

- I got scrubbed by fellow communist Bob on his last night for absolutely no reason, he needed no further town cred merely to survive his last night. This play only makes sense if he suspected I'd be able to kill him or Zakalwe.

I checked this out because it sounds pretty convincing, but turns out that Bob scrubbed you when he was at 4 votes against Ryan's 6. So he likely did it just to be as towny as possible and survive his last day. Also, if you were town, I don't think Bob would be scared of you killing Zak at night, since Zak had the village cover and can't even perform kills. If he was scared, he'd have to be thinking that you are lying to other townies about your role.

I agree that's also a plausible explanation, and you're correct that they left at the end of the day day rather than the end of the night. I will scratch that defense from my list.

Serdoa, if you don't want to hang another seer you do have the option of leaving this matter for tomorrow. Hanging a different communist tonight could help establish mine or Xenu's alignment, giving you a better gamble on us tomorrow. I'm all for hanging Xenu now, but that's because I know he's lying. Were I a random bystander, I'd prefer a third alternative. I just don't see why I'm the best candidate for hanging based on an accusation that I'd randomly make up a flavour role. I would have absolutely no motive for that, scum or villager. You may see it as a bad play, but Xenu does have a motive for making up a false result against me. I'm a threat to scum in the end game.

[novice]

I don't think my case is weak, and the strongest point in my favour is that I'd never fabricate a flavour name. What possible motive is there for doing so?

Any comment on the MJW - Absorption connection?

I think you misread me novice if you say that I said I didn't expect there to be a role seer, this is the only mention I can find:

Also, why would I lie about my flavour? I have absolutely no reason to do so. If anything, Paranoia sounds more suspicious than Absorption and it's not uncommon to have flavour seers (especially with everybody having a role). Flavour seers are useless to the town, and the role alone makes me think he's scum.

That says the exact opposite.

If flavour seers are useless to the town, and the role alone makes you think Xenu is scum, why would you (as fake claiming scum) expect town to have a flavour seer when you made your Paranoia claim? It seems you're contradicting yourself here.

[Catwalk]

I think that connection is meta speculation, and I don't think it comes close to being a motive for making up a flavour role. I wrote earlier that it was not uncommon to have a flavour seer, especially in a role madness game with 20 abilities to make up. Do you agree that making up an ability to match Absorption would be a far better play than making up a flavour, based on the assumption that there is a flavour seer? I maintain that I had no motive to do so, and that Xenu has a communist motive for making a sacrifice to take me out. Even if you consider it a weak one.

I didn't say I expected the town to have a flavour seer, I expected that it was likely there would be a flavour seer. I'll retract the last comment, though. BRick has demonstrated that he's keen on breaking all meta speculations, so most guesses about alignment based on abilities are likely to fail (and have so far). So I'd like to change it to "Xenu's ability is a null tell".

[Jowy]

Well I got novice's tool and did some re-reading. There simply isn't much that says Xenu is town. His play on D1 to D2 was scummy, and it's his angry fit that made me switch off him. But we've seen more of those angry fits, which does make me doubt how real they are. His D3 was suspicious, I'd say even more suspicious than Catwalk because of just how over the top Catwalk was. On D4 he had his fight with Rowain, and D5 was another quiet day with a late vote drop on Catwalk when it was already clear Ryan was going to hang. But again, why would scum Xenu trade 1 for 1 for town Catwalk? :/

Over the top obv scum, or subtle scum? I'm pretty torn. One of em has to go today though.
spacetyrantxenu

[Catwalk]

As scum, a flavour seer is basically good for securing a mislynch. He's proven that his ability does what he says, and now he's trying to fabricate a result against me. I think I have a strong role in the end game, and there have been many comments previously about my flavour and ability. I also don't have that much town cred due to bad votes, I think his play would be harder to pull off against a player with stronger credibility. He himself has precious little town cred, making his sacrifice a pretty low cost.

If you want more certainty of making the right choice between us, you can still make that decision tomorrow. I think we have very good chances of finding 2 scum out of sunrise, Ichabod and Qg. All votes on Qg D1 were villagers, Azza may not even have been bussed. And in that case it would be no surprise that Bob would be eager on getting town cred for lending a hand, given that he didn't care about the survival of his fellow communists.