WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Serdoa]

Well, two possibilities:

1.) Xenu lies. Only reason I can see him doing that is if scum wins if they get someone mislynched today. Possible if we started with 6 scum. What is not that likely, but possible given Bobs and zaks role (as losing a villager and a scum is a worse outcome for scum than for us).

2.) catwalk lies. In that case scum most likely won't win instantly even if we mislynch.

And that leads me to rather vote for xenu. If we are wrong, we still can lynch catwalk tomorrow. That isn't the same case if we mislynch catwalk today, as the play from xenu just makes no sense as a scum-trade IF they don't win right now.

(Well, third possibility is that they are as annoyed as I am and just decided to have a little fun with us flailing around ).

[Catwalk]

I don't think it's likely the scum will win tonight with another mislynch. But if you think scum have that many players, we'd have very high odds of finding a different one. Who would you prefer hanging, if not for me or Xenu? Same question goes for you Xenu

[novice]

Tally as of post 2181:

4 votes: Catwalk (spacetyrantxenu, novice, Merovech, Mattimeo)
4 votes: spacetyrantxenu (Catwalk, Qgqqqqq, Jowy, Serdoa)

Voting history:

xenu

Catwalk

catwalk

Catwalk

spacetyrantxenu

Catwalk

Catwalk

Jowy

Serdoa

spacetyrantxenu

Catwalk

catwalk

Spacetyrantxenu

Catwalk

xenu

spacetyrantxenu

Not voting: Sunrise, Ichabod.

[novice]

I can see some reasons why Catwalk might lie about his flavour. I can't see any reasons why Xenu would lie about his result. At LyLo it would make perfect sense, therefore it makes no sense now, since scum Xenu probably just needs to survive one more day, and THEN he can make the kamikaze play for victory.

I don't think we're at LyLo now because a) it would require 6 scum and b) I think the Team Leader MBD will be disbanded before we reach LyLo.

In fact, hasn't Brick said that all MBD's will be removed before the game is over? If so, we can't be at LyLo.

[Jowy]

Well Xenu/Ichabod/Sunrise/Q four scum team wouldn't surprise me at all. But even with 5 "real" scum start, they'd only have 4 against our 6 right now. This wouldn't be LyLo, but they could win the next night if we miss-lynch today and they kill two in the night. But if that is our scum team, then we've got one fucking good explanation why a scum would pull off a stunt like this: They'd very likely be heading to a loss considering there was essentially 5 potential targets for the town to lynch and 4 of them were scum.

Okay I'm convinced we should lynch Xenu.

[Jowy]

Btw I don't believe in 6 "real" scum start at all. I was working under the impression we had 4 "real" scum. But 5 would actually smack some sense into this situation.

[Catwalk]

I can see some reasons why Catwalk might lie about his flavour. I can't see any reasons why Xenu would lie about his result. At LyLo it would make perfect sense, therefore it makes no sense now, since scum Xenu probably just needs to survive one more day, and THEN he can make the kamikaze play for victory.

I don't think we're at LyLo now because a) it would require 6 scum and b) I think the Team Leader MBD will be disbanded before we reach LyLo.

In fact, hasn't Brick said that all MBD's will be removed before the game is over? If so, we can't be at LyLo.

I would agree, but Xenu would be quite likely to hang today without this gambit. Is that not a worthwhile reason for attempting a sacrifice?

[Jowy]

Btw another reason I found for the scum to make a gambit like Xenu's: If they are as screwed as they'd be if the remaining scum team is Xenu/Ichabod/Q/Sunrise, then it would make perfect sense to not just get that chance to win the next night if we miss-lynch a townie today, but they're essentially buying themselves more nights where they can potentially hit 2 townies. Like I said when we initially dropped down to 1 clone, it might be a race against time now.

[Catwalk]

novice, can you be persuaded to a compromise on one of Ichabod, sunrise and Qg?

[Qgqqqqq]

Okay, sorry I've been inactive lately. Of the two proposed, I would much prefer to lynch Spacetyrantxenu.

Fact: In this setup the scum are significantly nerfed. This is because 1 scum is third faction, and the clone rules benefit the village considerably, even if we suppose, as I do, that they began with two kills a night and lost one after the reveal. Combine that with a role-heavy game (roles, in general, favor village over scum) and you have a very weak scum faction.

Aside: I believe we have just the three factions. The rules seem very tailored around the flavor of the third now that we know it exists, and that faction is enough of a divergence from the standard play that I doubt there is another.

Theory: In a standard game we would have 5 scum for this many players. Given the other nerfs to their faction, I believe this means there are 6 in this game, with one secretly third-party.

However, regardless of whether you believe the above, I believe that Xenus's actions could easily be scum. A 1:1 trade of village to scum is not worth it, true, but given that the two lynchs may be "locked in" at an early stage in the way many seer results are, it could serve to stymie discussion, and the fact of the matter is that now that we have no vigs remaining, it is not 1:1. It is 1:3 if we assume that Merovech is unable to stop a kill, and forces a lylo situation at the cost of a player who might have been lynched anyway (if not, of course, it wins the game). This is similar to something MJW proposed in WW27, where Zak would've implicated himself to save MJW from the lynch at the last second, and even if they both were killed, I likely had enough cover to skate to victory. And consider the following:
Xenu has in general, been the subject of far more suspicion then Catwalk. Catwalk had recently come under suspicion, but without this would be unlikely to be lynched - which is pretty well perfect situation to fake scan someone. Various meta concerning Xenus role (strange name, scum version of Ryans? Typical scum role and so on) whereas I am aware of none surrounding Catwalk. Absorbtion is also something that implicates him (because of incompatbility with own role and mirroring MJWs) without doing so out of hand, allowing Xenu to have it "pointed out" by others.

Given this I am happy to vote Xenu.

Happyize:Q