WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Ichabod]

I don't believe this scum-counterpart arguments going around. And I'm surprised that novice used them. So, go ahead, lynch Sunrise right now, because I'm town and he must be my scum counterpart. Novice and Jowy, one of them is scum too.

Xenu's claim sounds a bit farfetched, especially with this "absorption" name, it seems like it was chosen to point out to this "scum counterpart" argument.

...

I'm not feeling so good right now, guys. I'm sorry for my absence, but I just can put myself to play this feeling like I am. It was a big mistake to sign up for this game, since I had bad feelings about it from the start. Hope I don't mess things around too much.

spacetyrantxenu

[novice]

There is also a set time that each of these roles will be removed from the game as the game goes on.

Hm, can "a set time" be after the game is concluded? Meh, this is a silly thing to base the lynch on anyway.

Jowy, why are you clearing Catwalk, Merovech and Mattimeo? I think there being four scum left and those being exactly Q/Ichabod/Sunrise/Xenu is very unlikely.

[Jowy]

Some maths:

Right now scum needs to kill 3 of us to win if they have 4 scum left.

Without gambit:

- Town lynches scum: 6-3
- Scum hits 2 town: 4-3
- Town lynches scum: 4-2
- Scum hits 2 town: 2-2
- Town lynches scum: 2-1
- Scum can only hit 1 town, town wins.

^ So the town has 5 targets to choose from which 4 are scum. If we get 3 right, the town would win EVEN if the scum get maximum amount of night kills every time.

With gambit:

- Town lynches town: 5-4
- Scum hits 2 town: 3-4, scum wins.

And even if scum doesn't win that first night, they'll only ever need to get 2 night kills once to win.


Notes: Scum only wins if they obtain a majority. I don't know what happens if it goes 1-1. I know scum faction won't win for sure, but we might lose as well if that happens.

Notes: If you believe that any of Serdoa/Novice/Jowy/Matt/Merovech are lynchable targets, then the math is different.

[Qgqqqqq]

Cross post with tons.
I don't see why we would vote a compromise candidate - one of the players is lying, therefore, one of the players is scum.

Btw I don't believe in 6 "real" scum start at all. I was working under the impression we had 4 "real" scum. But 5 would actually smack some sense into this situation.

In any game with 20 players, there are at least 5 scum - 4 "real" ones. No-one is proposing 7 total scum (6 "real" ones), they are proposing 5. And thus agreeing with you. Why do you think I am scum? Who do you think killed me night 2 - fellow scum, lying vigs or fourth party?

[Jowy]

There is also a set time that each of these roles will be removed from the game as the game goes on.

Hm, can "a set time" be after the game is concluded? Meh, this is a silly thing to base the lynch on anyway.

Jowy, why are you clearing Catwalk, Merovech and Mattimeo? I think there being four scum left and those being exactly Q/Ichabod/Sunrise/Xenu is very unlikely.

Catwalk because I was theorycrafting on why scum Xenu would accuse town Catwalk of lying, since lack of motive was the big tell in favor of Xenu imo. Mero and Matt because I don't think they are scum or that they would get lynched.

[novice]

novice, can you be persuaded to a compromise on one of Ichabod, sunrise and Qg?

That seems like a terrible idea and you suggesting it makes it seem like you're more interested in surviving than in town winning.

My second lynch preference after you is Xenu.

[spacetyrantxenu]

Well these are a lot of posts I can't respond to directly right now, but I suppose this is what I get for sticking my neck out and trying to help the town. You guys realize that the only useful thing my role allows me to do is catch people lying about something they really ought to know better than to lie about? And that I STILL caught someone in a lie about it and am now in trouble over it.

If I had to pick a "better" lynch target it would be someone else I catch in a lie since that's all the investigation power my role allows me. So yeah, that probably isn't very useful because surely no one else would be so crazy as to have lied about their role name when everyone had to have known better.

The only possible out for Catwalk is that someone redirected my scan and that the PM I got from Brick saying "Absorption" is really someone else's role name. But no one else claimed that, so someone else would be lying. So which is more likely, that Catwalk spun a yarn about me to clear himself when I scanned and revealed his lie, or that someone redirected my scan result and onto someone else who also just happened to be lying? Do we have suspicion of a redirector out there? I don't have time to flip back to the last updated spreadsheet Serdoa or Catwalk/Novice posted.

Finally, remember that of the two of us (between me and Catwalk), there's only ONE of us who has a confirmed kill role. What do I have to gain by lynching Catwalk? I'm only doing it because of the scan results, that's it, that's my investigation. And I've already shown where I haven't lied on previous scan results, and other people, town people, have confirmed the truth of the reveals. What else do I have to do to show I'm not lying? If I was scum why would I risk bringing myself out into the discussion with a false accusation? Catwalk isn't all that important for scum in the end game if he's telling the truth anyway, nothing says he has to die for scum to win, right? They just need a majority, not to kill everyone. Sorry, I don't see why this is a hard vote to make.

Preview edit: holy crap this is like a 10 post crosspost as I'm writing this at work between people walking up to my desk needing things. Will read and respond when I can

[Catwalk]

novice, can you be persuaded to a compromise on one of Ichabod, sunrise and Qg?

That seems like a terrible idea and you suggesting it makes it seem like you're more interested in surviving than in town winning.

My second lynch preference after you is Xenu.

I don't think it's a terrible idea. With you set against me and Serdoa just wanting the pain to end one way or another, I think I'm likely to hang tonight if Serdoa changes his mind again on a whim. I think we have enough suspicious players that there are good alternatives to choose from, and I'm hoping there's a chance we can uncover evidence either through that or during the night which will vindicate me. Qg stands out to me, as he's only come out of the bushes once the talk of a compromise candidate started. He seems happy to bus Xenu and ride to victory later on town cred.

If I had to pick a "better" lynch target it would be someone else I catch in a lie since that's all the investigation power my role allows me. So yeah, that probably isn't very useful because surely no one else would be so crazy as to have lied about their role name when everyone had to have known better.

Is your ability all you're good for, though? Who do you find scummy out of the remaining players? Given that you're a communist and we have two confirmed villagers, I don't find it surprising that you're reluctant to name other suspects.

The only possible out for Catwalk is that someone redirected my scan and that the PM I got from Brick saying "Absorption" is really someone else's role name. But no one else claimed that, so someone else would be lying. So which is more likely, that Catwalk spun a yarn about me to clear himself when I scanned and revealed his lie, or that someone redirected my scan result and onto someone else who also just happened to be lying? Do we have suspicion of a redirector out there? I don't have time to flip back to the last updated spreadsheet Serdoa or Catwalk/Novice posted.

We had a redirector who is long dead.

Finally, remember that of the two of us (between me and Catwalk), there's only ONE of us who has a confirmed kill role.

Is this somehow proof that you're not a communist?

What do I have to gain by lynching Catwalk? I'm only doing it because of the scan results, that's it, that's my investigation. And I've already shown where I haven't lied on previous scan results, and other people, town people, have confirmed the truth of the reveals. What else do I have to do to show I'm not lying? If I was scum why would I risk bringing myself out into the discussion with a false accusation? Catwalk isn't all that important for scum in the end game if he's telling the truth anyway, nothing says he has to die for scum to win, right? They just need a majority, not to kill everyone. Sorry, I don't see why this is a hard vote to make.

You have two things to gain:
1) You get to mislynch a villager at a time when you were likely to be lynched yourself. That's a good trade.
2) You take out a villager that has a strong role in the end game. With novice and Serdoa confirmed villagers and Merovech possibly being a town healer, me having a protective ability is lethal for communists.

[novice]

I don't think Xenu would have been next in line for the gallows if today had been claim-free.

[Catwalk]

I think he would have been high on the list. Are you set on voting for me today?