[SPOILERS] William discovers a source of horse. FDR of Mongolia

[WilliamLP]

So I was just logging in to test a different install...




Darrell moved a spear 2N of Black Stallion, next to two workers, which he knew were there. He doesn't know we have an axe in there though. This is the first aggressive act we've seen. It's clearly Mindy-style diplo: the kindest thing it could be is him trying to disrupt worker micro with a threat.

This could imply that either he thinks war is inevitable (sigh) or he doesn't want peace nearly as badly as I do.

Option 1 is attack with the C1 axe into the forest hill at 68% odds. Option 2 is just cover the workers with the axe. Option 3 is move the axe onto the tile his unit is on, to show that we probably could have killed him but didn't, leaving 1 worker open if he wants to trade his spear to kill one.

I've got to think about this one. I'm almost definitely not going to attack right now. Option 2, since he can see all the tiles the axe could have come from, shows him the axe must have come from the city and could have attacked. Option 3 gives him a referendum: does he want to play Gavagai / Retep meta and make me prove that I'm competent enough to make us both lose the game hard, as his best case.

Option 2 (just cover the workers) is probably the best here, but I'm a little disappointed that there's tension here. One day I'll start next to fellow scared pussycat and we can get through the first couple of eras in a positive sum love-fest. Future duel partners, don't think I'm not going to be watching your graphs like a hawk and planning tactics at night in case you make the first move though, because I am. Maybe it's more interesting for the lurkers this way.

[Commodore]

I would watch the crap out of you duel reporting. Try one some time, they're very fun.

[WilliamLP]

I think we're all going to have a fun time reading when (if?) PB13 ever opens up! In that game much of the first half was reasoning about unit moves and I think I reported the noob mistakes pretty well as well as the parts where more planning led to a pretty nice move. (And also lots of discussion and debates between Mindy and I there.) After that I just want a game where I can get out of the ancient age and follow a micro plan! I realize this was never supposed to be that sort of game though.

Anyway, in this position I'm thinking the "cute" move is to move the axe onto the spear, and that way if he declares he'll get teleported toward his closest city and can't attack the worker. I'm also worried about the small possibility that he has a chariot in the fog and is actually hoping we'll cover the tile with an axe. I don't know if he's lining up tactics that intense yet but it might be the strongest possible play for him and thus the best one to play for. Moving the axe there might also make him poop his pants a bit.

Full disclosure: after seeing this I switched Silver's build to an archer this turn. It's a slight grey area and couldn't be done in purely sequential turns but I think it's pretty legit. It will grow to unhappiness but that's just some fractional amount of maintenance for the extra pop that doesn't amount to a full 1gpt yet.

[Ceiliazul]

your pb13 suffers from wall-of-text syndrome, which was great as you and Mindy hashed out strats. Sadly, I'm not sure how much of the excellent reporting people will find hidden between the pages of dialogue.

Maybe a table of contents near the front?

[Commodore]

Micro plans need adjustment out of the ancient age, that's just MP.

Full disclosure: after seeing this I switched Silver's build to an archer this turn. It's a slight grey area and couldn't be done in purely sequential turns but I think it's pretty legit. It will grow to unhappiness but that's just some fractional amount of maintenance for the extra pop that doesn't amount to a full 1gpt yet.

Eh, as long as it isn't something that affects the front I think you're fine. I'm always catching tile mirco effects post report, etc.

[MindyMcCready]

Some questions:
1. When do you play?
2. What other units are around?
3. Do we know if Darrabod has horses?

[WilliamLP]

Ceil: it's a fair point. I haven't been very focused on writing to engage lurkers in any game here. And the long strategic debates probably got repetitive and wouldn't be great reading for a veteran just trying to read through and get an overview of the game.

Anyway, there nothing to do in this game but sit on this position right now, until the Steam issues get sorted out.

One of the interesting things about Civ 4 is how much of a strategic factor information is. Anything that can be kept as a surprise can have a lot more value than if it were known, proportional to how much of a surprise it is. E.g. a W2 axe that the enemy doesn't know about is many times more dangerous than one he does. So what are the surprise factors here? I have a 4/5 xp axe that Darrell doesn't know about. He probably doesn't know we have an uber-early barracks. If we had a W2 axe it allows plays like:




... starting from an invisible tile and moving to a square that can fork two cities. It could be the kind of thing that's on his mind.

I also think I may still have a small advantage of being able to surprise by virtue of being underestimated. I think that was a big factor in some battles in PB13. But I'm not sure how long I get to play that card for.

I know that Darrell is a better chess player than me, in the literal sense. Chess itself has a _lot_ of game-specific knowledge though, like a lifetime's worth.

[MindyMcCready]

Ichabod and MYKI haven't met each other yet, which is kind of surprising.

This is the thing that bothers me the most about Darrabod's move.

I saw no horses on the maps that you posted, but I'm definately sensing a trap.

[WilliamLP]

Some questions:
1. When do you play?

Probably as soon as the turn rolls, which is waiting on Dhal to fix his Steam install. Given the instructions on how to do this are out there now, it should be pretty easy for him. Darrell can't declare war before we move though, so we're perfectly justified using the first half of the timer. (Trying to play last would be the jerk thing to do.)

I know you're usually not available on weekends but I'll post first and hang on it a few hours if there's anything that changes tactically.

2. What other units are around?

We've got the spear and axe shown, and 3 warriors, and that's our entire military! Power graph:




Ours is higher but we're a bit inflated with Archery and a barracks. Do you think there's room for a chariot there? He could also have completed a unit on T63 not shown. We definitely want to see the graph before moving. If he just built more units, I'm really considering whipping into a couple archers. (Having one at 25% fortify in both forward hill cities promotable to G1 can't be a bad idea.)

3. Do we know if Darrabod has horses?

Unfortunately no. We don't see them.

Anyway, my proposed move:

- Axe moves NW->NE onto the spear, meaning if he declares war it will be teleported backwards. Also it shows him we could have rolled the dice with winning odds but didn't.
- Spear moves E to cover the worker tile in case he has a chariot. 1 worker finishes the cottage, 1 worker gets out of the tile NE of Stallion, so his best trade is a chariot to kill (not steal) a single worker.
- 2 workers road the wheat tile to connect the two cities.

Borders of Silver pop for turn 65, though it's not that important since it doesn't add any visibility.

[WilliamLP]

It's also worth considering the "win the game or go home" play of attacking the spear with the axe. (It's wounded but it will be 100% next turn.)

The problem is we'd really want to do it unpromoted (to unlock W2 on victory) but it's only 50% odds on the forest hill, 68% with C1. And in Civ 4, you really have to treat 68% as an equal coin flip, and losing is probably about as bad, or worse, as winning would be good.