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[PB22 Spoiler] Joey and Borsche puke on the funny pages

T109.

We had a 5 person civ party today; plako, dtay, Adrien, HAK, and myself were all logged in at the same time! (looks like I just missed Gawdzak too) We chatted about how it would be really cool to start a pitboss this way, with all 11 players logged in at once, but probably be completely impossible. Kinda fun.

I founded the northern ToA city this turn, named after The Draw Play. I'll post a screenshot of that later today; I was kinda rushed playing my turn right before a doctor's appt. (I snuck out of work a bit early, heh)

Buildup has been going as planned, but I've been thinking more lately about this upcoming war with REMAI. Seeing their buildup (we are again 2nd in soldier count this turn, although only 1 more sword popped out), and being a little more critical about our own productive and logistic capabilities, leads me to think that we need to delay the invasion date a bit and rework our planned tech order. Basically, it's like this. A big part of the assumption that we're stronger than them in a bilateral build up is based off the equation that 15 cities is stronger than 8 cities, right? We can make more units out of 15 cities than they can from 8. However, that's a meaningless analysis in the short term. First of all, even if all of our cities *were* making invasion units (which they're not), some of our cities are very far from the front. If we wanted to attack in, say, 6 turns, these cities would need to produce units in the next turn to get to the front in time. Sure, they can provide sustain, but can contribute nothing more to the initial SoD. Second, most of our cities have not and are not producing military. A rundown:

1.) GoatKCD is building stable -> finish settler -> barracks, and won't be whipped.
2.) MoJ is building stable -> finish settler. no barracks here.
3.) Claretin has no barracks and produces 1 hammer a turn - better to finish the lighthouse here
4.) Klurfville has no barracks, although it can contribute a few garrison replacements after its stable; lets count it half
5.) PHis producing some troops (a sword and a war elephant, lets say), but is also working on our GA GM, so we can't whip it too much. another 1/2
6.) The Draw Play (TDP), Ma3, Twokinds (TK), and Oglaf are still brand new and can't contribute past a stables a piece.
7.) Groooming, Ray's Toilet, and RIPFF are all across the water, and the latter two have heavy whip unhappy. Maybe we can squeeze a single catapult from somewhere out there in time to mean anything?

So, its really only 4 total cities or so producing the bulk of our army right now. Assuming REMAI are going for total war to match our output so far (although it seems they too haven't touched their capital), that's probably very similar to their total productive output. Now, we have our ace in the hole of essentially 9 free horchers on top of that, but what would a T113 invasion look like? Here's an estimate:

us T113, planned:
7 swords, 1 spear, 2 axes, 1 chariot, 9 numidians, 3 cats. (23 units total)

REMAI T113, projected:
3 war elephants, 2 spears, 2 axes, 4 hwatcha, 2 archers (13 units total)

It looks like we have a big advantage here, but remember that we're going against holy city culture, so we'll have to putz up to the city (2 additional turns) then bombard down, giving them 5 more turns to gather units. If they're able to produce a few more war elephants and a few more hwatchas, we could easily get stalemated.

On the other hand, consider a possible T118 invasion. Delaying a few turns lets our further out cities contribute troops and lets us whip our closer cities harder - the tech plan changes that I mentioned earlier are to get Calendar immediately after Construction, 2T break-even. In addition, we can produce some war elephants of our own, better protecting us from deadly hwatchas and horchers. On the other hand, they'll be mostly whipped out by then, I think.

us T118, planned:
7 swords, 2 spear, 2 axes, 1 chariot, 11 numidians, 2 war elephants, 8 cats. (33 units total)

REMAI T118, projected:
5 war elephants, 2 spears, 2 axes, 6 hwatcha, 2 archers (17 units total)

They'd still be able to scrounge up some more troops en-route, I'm sure, but won't have enough to really contest our enormous stack, especially under the threat that our huge number of Numidians will pose to any sneaky Hwatcha strike.

With that in mind, where do all these extra troops come from, exactly? Good question... still gotta plan that out, rather than just wave my hands around... lol
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this isn't calculated exactly, but I think this is what we can get moving out from 3CD on T118:

Capital -> 1 cat, 1 we - 1 single whip
3CD -> 3 cats, 1 we, 1 spear (almost done), 1 sword (almost done) - 2 single whip, 1 dbl whip
OP -> 1 cat, 1 numid - 1 single whip, 1 dbl whip
PH -> 1 sword (half done), 1 cat, 1 numid - 2 single whips, GA delayed at least 2 turns
Ma3 -> 1 numid - 1 dbl whip (plus others for infra)
ZP: 1 sword (half done), 2 cats - 1 single whip, 1 double whip
RT: 1 cat - 1 dbl whip
RIPFF: 1 we - 1 dbl whip
KV: 1 spear, 2 archer: 1 dbl whip, 1 single whip

1 archer - 1 KV (garrison replacement in 3CD)
2 spears - 1 KV, 1 3CD
1 medic I chariot: moving back down to 3CD from gavagai border area T110, eta T114
swords in queue: 1 PH, 1 ZP, 1 3CD. current swords: 4
axes: already ready in 3CD
numids: 9 from quest, 1 PH, 1 OP
3 we: 1 capital, 1 3CD, 1 RIPFF
9 cats: 1 capital, 3 3CD, 2 ZP, 1 OP, 1 RT

I'm happy with that stack composition; I think T118 should be a go. Calendar T112, with spices hooked T114 and incense T115 I think. That should be enough to support a couple extra whips in places that I'm already capped. I should finally reach Commodore's borders either next turn or the turn after, and hopefully he has some happy resources he can trade me too... we'll see.
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Hmmm... REMAI's power has spiked above mine by about 25k - it looks like they're going to attack me rather than the other way around! That would be awesome if it happens; it'd be so much easier to deal with Hwatchas by flanking them in the field from the safety of my chokepoint than trying to seige a city. I think I try to play queue-chicken for a few more turns in hopes to bait them in... famous last words?

Internationally, I met DNF. I accepted an open borders deal with them, but they refused a map deal. I sent it to them again, with a followup 7 gold + 7gpt deal, trying to suggest how much I'm losing by not having a route to them. I'm fine with not having their map, but I'm not cool with them taking free money from me.

Nonstop whipping means that I'm starting to slip behind the CY yield leader more and more... it was more than 1 food per city at the start of this turn, for the first time, and by the end I was down almost 2 food a city. =/
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T112... we got another random event... EPIC. +1.25 gpt. Just EPIC.




As you can see, all our whips are Getting Shit Done. I'm really laughing a lot at the thought of our rivals reading that RE in their event logs... lol




That said, we went up over 20k power in the last turn and REMAI are STILL above us in power. Not only that, they whipped 4 times last turn AND 4 times this turn; 13 whips in the last 4 turns. That's actually more than us and we have twice their city count!! I was talking to Borsche on steam about this, and we're really sure that they're going for an all-in attack on the chokepoint. It's just too telegraphed to be anything else, and with them losing their off-shore settlements (more on this in a sec), trading away marble, they no longer have any other real options anymore... I'm even willing to go further and say that, in a way, I don't think they wanted any other options besides this.

Here's one of their (former) off-shore settlements that we can see thanks to a map trade from mackoti (who got this map I think via HAK). This island is what they lost in their war with DNF - "Signal Iduna" fits as part of REMAI's soccer stadium naming theme, and you can see the city ruins of the razed city on the sugar. However, they have open borders with DNF right now, and are trading incense for silk. There's absolutely no way they're building up for a revenge strike against someone they're giving happy resources to, and they're still pouring 100% EP on us. Well, so it goes, as long as we can repel the invasion cleanly then we'll be able to take quite a bit of spoils.




I think we should be OK. Our defense currently consists of 6 swords, 2 axes, a chariot, and 2 catapults. Whatever REMAI have in their stack, its probably a lot more than this, as our power will be inflated with extra population, barracks, and stables. OTOH, two more cats were whipped this turn and we're letting some of our queues finally complete; 3CD, for example, finishes three units in the next three turns (a spear, our 7th sword, and a cat). We're making good progress on our stable quest, too:
  • Oglaf - Done eot T112
  • RT - Done eot T112
  • PH - Done eot T112
  • MoJ - Done
  • GoatKCD - Done
  • KV - Done
  • Odd Patriot - Done
  • Ma3 - to be whipped T113 or T114
  • ZP - Queued; ultimate end-point

I'd like to whip the last one as late as we can, so that they don't see the power spike before it's too late...

One last bit of news. We might have accidentally gotten circumnavigation this turn!! I'm actually not sure if it is enabled or not in the mod, but if it is, we've got it. The map trade from mackoti revealed all but 1 vertical stripe of black... that happened to be right next to our workboat. Considering that Mack's map was from probably from HAK, who it seems has Commodore's latest map too (there's new Dutch cities revealed (capital BFC seafood still unhooked), and plako is apparently north of Commodore), and since Gawdzak hadn't explored at all in this direction, then I think we've gotta have it. Now that'll be pretty goddamned awesome!


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AWWWW HELLLLLLLL YES




I took a bunch of screenshots for a bigger writeup, but its late so this will have to do for now. The tldr version is that we increased our power by another 22k, and REMAI are still above us by 4k. lol I'd be seriously freaking out if it wasn't for our horse quest to fall back on - they probably have at least another dozen troops in their stack compared to ours at the moment, considering we have so much more of our power in barracks/stables/pop. Mmm, dat power graph doe...


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An interesting corollary to that power graph is the CY graph...




REMAI tanked and have essentially stagnated, while we're still doing fine. I think they *need* to attack us soon, while we're fine with just waiting them out, as we've still got 5-6 spots available to settle and knights ~20 turns away.

Barb galleys finally making themselves known... at least we don't have to deal with fucking Naval Initiative on these stupid things in this game.




A few scattered international thoughts...

First, we see why Gavagai's power is spiking up. HAK has like infinity land available to settle but instead he wants to fight Gavagai over a freaking desert. Well, good luck with that.




We finally made contact with Commodore; he's doing well at 14 cities. I sent him a OB+Map+Gold for OB+Map+Gems trade; he doesn't have a spare gems (one is going to HAK and one to DNF), but I still thought this trade was reasonable considering a.) my maps are pretty valuable, revealing quite a bit of his backfill, b.) HAK is filling maybe 40% of his international routes, and we have ours fully filled. I logged back in after he played and he rejected it, unfortunately, but sent back 3 trades; map for map, ob for ob, and a request for 3 gold. I think he's saying he's down to trade gems for gold in 3 turns if we give him the map and ob now. I think that's fine; I'd much rather have that extra happy now, as we have pressing whip concerns, but I'd rather have the trade than not. This gives us leverage to cancel OB with DNF in 8 turns as payback for their unwillingness to trade with us.

With our 3 move workboats, we'll meet dtay and plako soon. Making contact with dtay will be better for him than for us; he's pretty isolated at the moment and his core is freaking huge. 65 pop in just these 9 cities, and I'm sure he's got to have at least 4-5 more cities on top of this. He's probably pushing close to 80 pop total... we're only at 71. =/




Finally, here's one for Borsche to show him my speculation on REMAI's dotmap. The essential thing here is to look at where resources are hooked, like so:




If it doesn't say "needs farm," then it's improved. If it says "needs road," then its improved but not hooked. Extrapolating this across what we can see of their empire, with a little "x" meaning an unhooked resource and a little "o" meaning a hooked one, this is what I think their current dotmap looks like for their missing 4 cities:


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Lol at the comical profits lol! fun thread you have, keep up the good work! And situation seems really promising, blood for lurkers! popcorn
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Good job on the backdoor circumnavigation. I figure this will be a big help with the management of those offshore cities. And, obviously, later in the game, it's such a big advantage. goodjob
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(December 14th, 2014, 12:36)Ichabod Wrote: Good job on the backdoor circumnavigation. I figure this will be a big help with the management of those offshore cities. And, obviously, later in the game, it's such a big advantage. goodjob

Speaking of, here's my reaction to the current turn, T116:

AXasHIORJHNOSHIOEJGHIOWEHGGHPJQP

I was so freaking mad that I completely forgot to take a picture. lol Our Horse Whispering quest successfully finished this turn, but...




Our horchers spawned here, offshore in Oglaf, rather than in ZP, the city that last completed a stables. Our two galleys are not even in position to load any troops this turn, even with their 3 moves; the earliest we can get even eight of the horchers to the choke is T120, able to attack out T121. This is really really bad; our chariot revealed that REMAI have a few workers (guarded by spears, unfortunately) s already roading out to the choke, so they're gonna start moving out either next turn or the turn after. We'll have 10 cats, a spear, 2 axes, and a WE able to defend T119, the earliest they can get to the choke. Their stack will have around 25-30 units; they are still whipping like madmen. Their formerly size-10 capital has shrunk down to size 4! This is truly all-in from them! We really need those damn horchers!!

That said, we rose up to 340k power this turn, to their 305k... maybe that will give them some pause, buy us a turn or two.
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I've been freaking out a bit about this quest rake-in-the-face, so I simmed out some battles of our projected stack T119 and T120 (the soonest they could hit if they move out next turn) vs various different stack compositions of theirs, assuming 30 units in their stack. Hitting the hill vs not doesn't turn out to matter as much as how many Numidians and Catapults we have, because the only units that will get the hill's defensive bonus are the weakest possible ones they could have (axes, archers, and spears). War elephants, horchers, and catapults do not get the bonus so it's better to hit them with more troops. If they have a lot of War Elephants and spears, it'd also be good to have a couple more WE ourselves to kill the top defenders, although I'm not sure where they come from and I'm nervous to queue any more with Gavagai now apparently at war with HAK. (HAK razed a city of his this turn)

I logged in again to pull some workers off a plantation to build a road to speed the numids an extra half-move, ensuring that 8 from the quest can hit by T120; we can reinforce that with 2 more from the mainland. I also whipped PH again; I think we'll have 11 cats in-range T120. I really hate delaying that GA even more though. =/

T120 assumes we have the first half of the timer, btw. 90% of the time we play before them but they've been playing a few back-to-backs lately...
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