WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Twinkletoes89]

@Zak: I thought it was. Nice analysis of some of the voting patterns - which I've never been very good at.

Then again, there seems to be a bit too much focus on Twinkletoes therein - and he's someone who's already been pushed up a bit, so it reads slightly...not cowardly, exactly, but more cautious, more inclined to follow and support the determined consensus. Which could be just the way he plays, but it does fit with his earlier suspicious patterns.

So yeah, still a good post, but there are some problems on reread.

You are aware that you seem to have contradicted yourself in consecutive posts?

Spend time seemingly proving my guilt, then doubting it straight away.

You may have been cleared by plenty, but I still rank you as highly suspicious. Your claim is not proven, my view of your day one antics hasn't changed and you still seem inconsistent to me.

[Gazglum]

I'm not sure about Jabbz, I think it's unlikely that there were three scum up for vote but that's too much conjecture to clear him him. I'll place him on my watch list with Qgqqqqq, who I still suspect, and see what today brings.

That is hedging heavy enough for topiary my twinkly friend. I'd say we've had one of the most data-filled Day 1s our group has seen, don't you have any suspicions further than your two man watch list? Nobody to vote?

Why do you still suspect Q? How do you see the wolf Day 1 going down if he was one of team scum?

Do you have any people you think are very town like?

[Jabbz]

I could have sworn that Jabbz was on Twinkletoes day one as well, but I looked back and can't find it.

I went back and checked all my posts that touch on him, all of which were in the first 80 or so posts. All of my issues with him were meta, regarding his dropping the hider role. Nothing overly substantial, just raising potential questions.

[Qgqqqqq]

...

You are aware that you seem to have contradicted yourself in consecutive posts?

Spend time seemingly proving my guilt, then doubting it straight away.

You may have been cleared by plenty, but I still rank you as highly suspicious. Your claim is not proven, my view of your day one antics hasn't changed and you still seem inconsistent to me.

What? No I'm not. In the first, I'm saying you are scummy, but leaving my vote on Jkaen because he's garnered less attention. In the second, I'm saying that I'm not sure you(/Jkaen) could be scum with Jabbz - and saying that that's an argument for Jabbz' innocence, not your own.

@Jabbz there was, for example, a bit where you pointed out Jkaens bad play, and another where you said actions incriminated "at least TT", but never expanded on others. That's where my problems with it came through - that you seemed focusing on him to the exclusion of others, like you weren't confident enough to follow thorough on others.

[Azarius]

TT, I can certainly understand not clearing Q, I don't know that anyone has completely. But how can you seriously say that he is one of your two top suspects on your watch list at this point in the game? That just does not seem credible.

[Azarius]

Ichabod, your reasoning regarding dtay as a new wolf and falling back on reasoning makes sense. As far as the Lewwyn defense angle however, did you consider that he may have just been hoping to buddy up to a newer player by defending them?

[Twinkletoes89]

I'm not sure about Jabbz, I think it's unlikely that there were three scum up for vote but that's too much conjecture to clear him him. I'll place him on my watch list with Qgqqqqq, who I still suspect, and see what today brings.

That is hedging heavy enough for topiary my twinkly friend. I'd say we've had one of the most data-filled Day 1s our group has seen, don't you have any suspicions further than your two man watch list? Nobody to vote?

Why do you still suspect Q? How do you see the wolf Day 1 going down if he was one of team scum?

Do you have any people you think are very town like?

It is hedging because I'm not sure. I'm not going to pretend otherwise. I only vote when I feel I can justify it and it's too soon.

I still suspect Q because he hasn't proven anything. His day one was filled with a lot of desperation when the pressure was on, he rejected a good role and if he is lying about his role, saying that he scried Lewwyn is an easy cover story. He may be a cop, hence my reticence to vote for him, but I do not see why we should trust him because we hope we have two cops.

Also, I feel that my suspicions on Lewwyn implicate him on Day one. When a Q lynch seemed inevitable, Lewwyn suddenly sounds defeatist and gives up on detailing his suspicions about him - arguing that there was little point any more. As Lewwyn is quite an emotional player, I think that his reaction is revealing. What other reason is there for him not to pile on with his strong suspicions unless he's holding out hope for a change in momentum? Lewwyn was more vocal when he chased cases on other players.

On Jabbz, I feel he is more town than before last night. With Lewwyn and novice both scum, he is likely a fall guy to protect them, but that's not enough evidence to clear him. He is engaging more so I'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I'd like to see some pressure on Jowy. He confuses me as sometimes he seems uber town and then he does something that runs contrary to that, like his quick vote hopping yesterday. He's now playing a vocal and dominant role in discussion by declaring many people suspicious or townies, yet the posts give no reasons why he has made those decisions.

Additionally, Jkaen made a late switch to Jabbz when the vote got tight yesterday and he did very little justification for it. I would like to hear more on that.

I still trust dtay so far. I feel he often makes solid posts that I often agree with and as he is a newbie, I wouldn't have expected him to play in this way.

I still think bob is playing a typical bob game and that Fenn has been a steady and often helpful contributor.

[Ichabod]

Ichabod, your reasoning regarding dtay as a new wolf and falling back on reasoning makes sense. As far as the Lewwyn defense angle however, did you consider that he may have just been hoping to buddy up to a newer player by defending them?

Perhaps. There's a lot of explanations for Lewwyn's action and a lot of them can fit with dtay being town.

What I think my post ended up showing is what I've written above: dtay was very perceptive concerning my case against him and he found a lot of problems with it very fast. He seems to be aware of what's happening in the game and he's smart. But his participation, overall, is lacking on pro-village content.

The most "by feel" arguments he made on day 1 were against Qgqq and Jabbz (while he meta-analysed other players like Lew and Novice, both scum, but he didn't "feel them", if that's understandable). We don't know for sure, but I think Qgqq and Jabbz have high odds of being villagers.

I doubt we'll lynch dtay today, frankly speaking. But I want to press my case so other players start looking at him and don't get him get cover.

[Bobchillingworth]

Ugh, so much stuff to catch up on. Apologies if the following case has already been iterated several times over by other people, I've only skimmed the last several pages.


Voting for Twinkletoes89.


Toward the end of D1, after Mattimeo's reveal he posted:

I'm not a fan of lynching possible cops on Day One as it's a very risky gambit, so I am backing off Qgqqqqq for now but I'm not sure I buy his claim.

Right, so after Mattimeo's claim throws novice into some seriously hot water (he has just shot up from 0 to 6 votes on him in a couple hours) TT decides that, despite having had his vote parked on Qg for over half a day, he suddenly cannot abide the possibility of mislynching a cop, and so he votes for Jabbz, the only person with enough votes at that point to possibly hang instead of novice.


I don't buy the timing at all. Why vote for Qg in the first place (and stay on him for a while) if there was never any actual conviction behind it? Why balk at voting for cop-claimed novice, who is now in trouble, even though you were going after Qg for having the exact same role? It doesn't jive.

[Ichabod]

TT post above is a good point about why I think people are mistaken about dtay. Of course his posts make sense, because he only posts things that make sense! Stuff that make sense are safe stuff to post, because people will just nod and be done with it. But villagers very often post things that don't make sense, because that's how you catch wolves, by guessing with gut feels and straw picking.

Dtay is playing perfectly reasoned and perfectly safe. And I think that's a scum tell.