First post lets us know he won't be much help because he has been/will be busy. Explains he discarded Hider because he doesn't see how it could be useful and it is risky to use. Gives us some reads on people based on the roles they rejected.
Says Day 1 has been a mess. (imo it wasn't, one of the more orderly first days I can remember.) Believes that it has gotten messy because we were right about Q (so scum generating noise for cover). Says that Q has been "scrambling around", and "feels wrong". Says he has a good read on this because he wasn't around so he could get an idea of the mood of the thread. Votes Q.
Next post gives us reads based on stuff beyond role discards. Of interest is he pegs Lewwyn as a scum read. His reasoning for it is sort of strange tho. Spoilering the whole post actually.
(January 29th, 2015, 19:41)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: Right, another re-read and here are some more thoughts on what I picked up this time.
Town Reads
Fenn & Dtay - They feel pretty townish to me right now. I think they are, on the whole, playing a game so far that is trying to help enlighten the village and provide useful information. I've found myself content with their contributions.
Bob - This feels so much like what I remember bob to be like. Its a gut feel but I trust it because it feels familiar and natural.
Scum Reads
Qgqqqqq - On this reread my feelings have not changed at all. His early posts trying to justify dropping the roleblocker feel *too* desperate and I personally don't like the delayed reveal. The way it is set up, he will be revealing at close to the last possible minute, leaving little time to counter it and corral the votes. It behooves him better to buy time while people are having a fish around and hope someone else trips up or makes the vote close. I know early reveals aren't optimal, but I think that this would have been more appropriate.
Lewwyn - This post in particular stood out to me and really confused me
(January 29th, 2015, 05:27)Lewwyn Wrote:
(January 29th, 2015, 04:29)Qgqqqqq Wrote:
(January 28th, 2015, 21:51)Lewwyn Wrote: A vote for Qgqqqqq is not a pressure vote at this point. Definitely a lynch vote. Of all the people I think he is most likely scum.
I'm on my phone but I will do a longer post when I am home in a few hours.
Lewwyn, is this coming? You've posted a bit since then, but made no comment on me.
Seems a bit redundant at this point...
That strikes me as distinctly un-village and I'm not sure I buy his explanation of 'everything had already been said'. Why not contribute to the discussion and give his thoughts when he had declared that Qgqqqqq was "most likely scum"? It strikes an almost defeatist tone and this is on Day One. Feels out of place.
Ichabod & Mattimeo - Their proposals that someone rejecting a strong village role is more likely to demonstrate that they took a more powerful village role seems contrary to the odds in my opinion. Qgqqqqq is someone who would benefit from a smokescreen like that, but then it is almost *too* obvious a defence that it would almost be suicidal for a mafia person to do if Qgqqqqq turn out scum. But it does seem conveniently timed and without a private thread to co-ordinate, maybe it was the best they could do?
I also really disagree with and dislike Ichabod's declaration in Post #243 that Fenn was "So wolfy its almost howling at the moon". I don't know enough about Ichabod's style to know if this kind of exaggeration is typical, but I do not like it. That, combined with his rejection of a decent town role, makes me very wary of him.
Matt has contributed a lot more than normal. It sticks out to me but not enough either way for me to get a positive read. I hope he keeps it up though, as either way it is beneficial to the village in the long run.
I don't see how Lewwyn saying adding more would be redundant is defeatist. Defeatist about what even?
He pops in again near the end of Day 1.
(January 30th, 2015, 09:29)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: I'm not a fan of lynching possible cops on Day One as it's a very risky gambit, so I am backing off Qgqqqqq for now but I'm not sure I buy his claim.
Novice's claim is weaker and his relative absence has been conspicuous for someone I remember as being an active villager.
Jowy summed up the case on Jabbz pretty well, though I have to say that if he hadn't made that post,I doubt that I would've noticed Jabbz enough to vote for him.
Out of those three, I'm voting for Jabbz as I don't want to risk a power role dying early when they can easily be checked or proven overnight.
TT hadn't mentioned Jabbz at all yet. He admits he hadn't even considered him, but is voting him based on Jowy's case entirely. That and he doesn't want to risk lynching a powerrole.
Prods those not voting a frontrunner to swap their votes to where it matters. Vote count stood at 6 novice 5 Jabbz 3 Lewwyn by the tally.
Posts another vote count, novice 7 Jabbz 6 Lewwyn 3. "with only bob, dtay and Azarius not voting for one of these three. I'm uncomfortable with someone who's camped their vote for most of the day deciding this but I don't agree with taking the risk of lynching a claimed power role on Day One." So basically, hey you guys, vote for a frontrunner, but not novice. So ya, Jabbz.
On to Day 2.
(January 31st, 2015, 14:15)Twinkletoes89 Wrote:
(January 31st, 2015, 13:08)Gazglum Wrote:
(January 31st, 2015, 13:00)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: @Gazglum I am no sycophant.
I'm always going to be reluctant to risk mislynching a power role early on. It's too much of a gamble that could backfire horribly. I'm glad it didn't this time, but I'm happy with my reasons for voting as I did given the information at the time.
Did you think Jabbz was the best lynch available? The only reason you gave was 'see what Jowy said'. What about lewwyn?
What do you think of Jabbz now?
At the time of the quote you mentioned, it was a two horse race with only Lewwyn above a single vote. I moved on to Jabbz as I didn't want to risk losing a powerful village role.
I had my suspicions of LLewwyn, as I previously stated, but too many people were reticent to vote for him due to his time zone troubles.
I'm not sure about Jabbz, I think it's unlikely that there were three scum up for vote but that's too much conjecture to clear him him. I'll place him on my watch list with Qgqqqqq, who I still suspect, and see what today brings.
I disagree that tonight was a Vig kill. I don't think a Vig would take such an early risk, whereas a SK would be looking to kill every night, especially early on. But maybe that's just my conservatism and other village players would take Vig risks early on.
He is unsure of Jabbz. He says it's unlikely that there were 3 scum ileading the votes, but not enough to clear him. Putting him on the watchlist with Q.
TT, at the point of this post, why are you unsure of Jabbz? What are your actual suspicions based on? Is there anything to it beyond you voting him Day 1 because he was not a claimed power role, and then you just keep on him Day 2 because it is convenient?
(January 31st, 2015, 17:04)Bobchillingworth Wrote: Ugh, so much stuff to catch up on. Apologies if the following case has already been iterated several times over by other people, I've only skimmed the last several pages.
Voting for Twinkletoes89.
Toward the end of D1, after Mattimeo's reveal he posted:
Quote:I'm not a fan of lynching possible cops on Day One as it's a very risky gambit, so I am backing off Qgqqqqq for now but I'm not sure I buy his claim.
Right, so after Mattimeo's claim throws novice into some seriously hot water (he has just shot up from 0 to 6 votes on him in a couple hours) TT decides that, despite having had his vote parked on Qg for over half a day, he suddenly cannot abide the possibility of mislynching a cop, and so he votes for Jabbz, the only person with enough votes at that point to possibly hang instead of novice.
I don't buy the timing at all. Why vote for Qg in the first place (and stay on him for a while) if there was never any actual conviction behind it? Why balk at voting for cop-claimed novice, who is now in trouble, even though you were going after Qg for having the exact same role? It doesn't jive.
Bob, the timing has a very simple explanation if you care to look at my post times.
My post prior to voting for Jabbz was at around midnight my time after a long day away from the thread as I had made clear previously. Q made his claim between that post and my next one.
Read my posts, I have always had a strong conviction for suspecting Q and I made that very clear. I only backed off him after his claim as I was not prepared to take the risk and was waiting for more evidence to reassess. You are mistaken to say that I ever went after Q after he claimed, it was only before then that I did.
I would not believe you would make such an obvious mistake when claiming something like this, but you have.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
(January 29th, 2015, 19:41)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: Right, another re-read and here are some more thoughts on what I picked up this time.
Town Reads
Fenn & Dtay
Bob
Scum Reads
Qgqqqqq
Lewwyn
Ichabod & Mattimeo
(January 30th, 2015, 09:29)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: I'm not a fan of lynching possible cops on Day One as it's a very risky gambit, so I am backing off Qgqqqqq for now but I'm not sure I buy his claim.
Novice's claim is weaker and his relative absence has been conspicuous for someone I remember as being an active villager.
Jowy summed up the case on Jabbz pretty well, though I have to say that if he hadn't made that post,I doubt that I would've noticed Jabbz enough to vote for him.
Out of those three, I'm voting for Jabbz as I don't want to risk a power role dying early when they can easily be checked or proven overnight.
These posts are interesting to compare (I deleted the reasoning TT used on the first post).
Notice who he suspects on the first one: Matt, confirmed villager; Qgqq, probable villager; me and LEWWYN, the godfather! He doesn't say anything about novice (novice had already claimed). Nor about Jabbz, interestingly enough.
On his second post, he says novice's claim is weaker than Qgqq... So, why novice wasn't in the first post, listed as a suspect?
Finally, on the second post, he doesn't mention Lewwyn. Actually, he doesn't mention any suspicion of Lewwyn again on day 1, just that Lewwyn should make a vote that matters (a post where he called a lot of other people too).
What do I make of it?
That first post was an elaborate one and very thought out. Lewwyn's suspicion there could be a bump on the "let's scan Lewwyn" wagon. The fact that he didn't notice Lewwyn again on day 1 further makes me think that -> he only mentioned Lewwyn when he made an elaborate post, with an elaborate plan.
But the second post, where he votes Jabbz over Lewwyn, is even better: if he didn't want to risk a power role, why vote Jabbz and not Lewwyn, which had enough votes at that point? Why vote for the guy he didn't suspect, if he could vote for the one he suspected. That's totally unjustifiable.
And now, day 2, after Lew is dead and revealed GF, TT posts:
(January 31st, 2015, 14:15)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: I had my suspicions of LLewwyn, as I previously stated, but too many people were reticent to vote for him due to his time zone troubles.
Now, he's back suspecting Lewwyn again.
Yeah, now I see that the case is pretty dmaning...
Would quote the bits of that post I'm responding too but not easy on my phone.
1) You are making the same error as bob. Novice's claim only became weaker when Q actually made the claim. Why would my first list reflect that when it was posted ages before Q's claim?
2) When has Q obtained the status of 'probable villager'? I see no provable evidence to back that up.
3) You say that Lewwyn was in danger of being lynched near the end of Day 2 and that I should've voted for him. I contend that he wasn't. Multiple people had expressed resistance to lynching Lewwyn due to timezone issues forbidding him the chance to defend himself. It would also have put novice even further in the lead, who I did not want to lynch when he was a possible cop. I'm not going to take that chance.
Jowy made a convincing enough case on Jabbz for me to prefer taking a chance on lynching him and waiting for the cop claims to be confirmed so I went for the least bad option. I stand by my judgement, given the evidence at the time.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
(January 31st, 2015, 17:54)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: Also, when did the hider role become an awesome role again?
I completely missed it myself until someone explained it in-thread, but the hider can essentially work as a self-protecting cop. Because you can only survive hiding behind villagers, anyone you hide behind and live to tell about it is automatically cleared. It even works for rooting out scum, if you publicly declare your intended night target. The only way for scum to prevent you from clearing people until you kamikazed on one of them would have been to have a role blocker, which wouldn't be guaranteed.
Seen in that light, it could well be the strongest village role.
(January 31st, 2015, 17:54)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: Also, when did the hider role become an awesome role again?
I completely missed it myself until someone explained it in-thread, but the hider can essentially work as a self-protecting cop. Because you can only survive hiding behind villagers, anyone you hide behind and live to tell about it is automatically cleared. It even works for rooting out scum, if you publicly declare your intended night target. The only way for scum to prevent you from clearing people until you kamikazed on one of them would have been to have a role blocker, which wouldn't be guaranteed.
Seen in that light, it could well be the strongest village role.
But you've proven my point. It took people explaining it for you to see its value. I had the same initial reaction and saw it as pretty weak and risky.
Now we've gone into the possibilities of how it could be potentially awesome, it seems like people are expecting me to have though of all that on my own before the start.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
