WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Qgqqqqq]

Here's what BRick has to say about it:

In case the roles picked result in what I deem to be an unplayable setup, then I will re-roll, re-distribute, and set a new game start date.

It's hard to know what he'd deem "unplayable", but I think it could be anything from 3 to 8 scum players (with 3 being one faction, 7 being 6-1-1) - that's what I'd class as playable. It's really something I'd rather not meta, because we don't really have any idea what he was thinking here - there's what? 16 potential scum roles?

[Jabbz]

I think Q has a point. The fact you're arguing so strongly against you putting TT out of the contention for the lynch is what makes it seem suspicious. Also, in your scenario there to justify moving, where TT gains more traction, why on earth would I be moving off of my preferred target that I was on most of the day? You're really reaching.

Eh I suppose. It's possible I'm arguing so much because it's Qg, and we went around and around on it yesterday. Either way, I stand by my jump to dtay, even though he turned out to be town :/

[Bobchillingworth]

I imagine we started with quite a few scum. The Paranoia game featured 4 scum players, a SK and two semi-neutral third party members vs. 13 villagers. Granted that game gave everyone two "lives", but that's not even considering the two village compulsive vigs. My best guess would be 5 scum and a SK.

[Rowain]

Balance:
Playable
4 scum and 1 or 2- SK
5 scum + 0 or 1 Sk

Of course depending of power-distribution.

[AdrienIer]

Replacing Dtay as math guy : the probability for no SK in the setup, assuming anyone would take SK if he has the choice is just under 9%. Not completely unlikely.

[AdrienIer]

Actually 10.1%, I made a small mistake

[Gazglum]

Gazglum’s TPS REPORT: 3 February 2015
KPI: Finding a sycophant

Hey guys, so now that the dust has settled we’re all feeling a little sheepish. I know for sure I am. And mistakes were made, and so now we’re all going to have to come in on Saturday and Sunday to play a little catchup.

But that’s ok, because the good news is that we can still hang Twinkletoes tomorrow.

SO I’m just gonna run few a couple of things re: his sycophancy.

First, basic Sycophant Warning Signs – Twinkletoes is 3rd bottom in post count of survivors. Obviously not all lurkers are sycophants or I’d be pushing Molach more, but there tends to be a correlation (see Lewwyn and Novice Day 1 for further details).

Next. Going through his own paperwork, dear, dear, there are some discrepancies here.

I have to agree with Bob that it is very hard to ignore the people who have discarded powerful roles.

So he wants to focus on people who discarded power roles. Cool. Remember that he’ll end up voting Jabbz.

Next post he then says that voting Novice is too risky because he’s claimed cop, which is fair. He pushes Q.

He gives an Official Leans List: Dtay, Fenn and Bob are town; Ichabod, Q, Mattimeo and Lewwyn are scum.

Jowy summed up the case on Jabbz pretty well, though I have to say that if he hadn't made that post,I doubt that I would've noticed Jabbz enough to vote for him.

Out of those three, I'm voting for Jabbz as I don't want to risk a power role dying early when they can easily be checked or proven overnight.

He’s never mentioned Jabbz before, but now he’s voting him based only on Jowy, a player who he has already suggested he didn’t trust:

I originally liked Jowy, then he's started moving targets around quite quickly and that made me more concerned.

And it’s interesting that Twinkletoes decided to go with Jabbz, because when he dis the votes stand at this:

Scum Novice: 6
Jabbz: 4
Scum Lewwyn: 3
Q: 3 (including twinkletoes)

So Twinkle is pushing the unknown up towards the head of the lynch ahead of two competing scum lynches.

At this point his friends are still leading the tally, so Twinkle needs more support. So he suddenly becomes more active and posts:

Could really do with bob, dtay, Azarius & Lewwyn coming in and using their votes in a more constructive manner or at least explaining why they are voting for people who (at least currently) aren't in danger of getting lynched.

Then

So with Jkaen and Lewwyn moving their vote since the last count, I have it at:

7 Votes - Novice
6 Votes - Jabbz
3 Votes - Lewwyn

with only bob, dtay and Azarius not voting for one of these three. I'm uncomfortable with someone who's camped their vote for most of the day deciding this but I don't agree with taking the risk of lynching a claimed power role on Day One

Ie: Please people, move your vote.

Ok, so Day 1 Twinkletoes is not very active and has a very poor voting record. Likely wolf. But there's more!

Day 2

I attack him straight off and Twinkletoes gets much more responsive. He alternates between defending himself and talking meta about cops and vigs.

His only suspects after the data-flood that was Day 1 are Jabbz and Q on a ‘watchlist’

He talks a bit about Q:

I still suspect Q because he hasn't proven anything. His day one was filled with a lot of desperation when the pressure was on, he rejected a good role and if he is lying about his role, saying that he scried Lewwyn is an easy cover story. He may be a cop, hence my reticence to vote for him, but I do not see why we should trust him because we hope we have two cops.

Also, I feel that my suspicions on Lewwyn implicate him on Day one. When a Q lynch seemed inevitable, Lewwyn suddenly sounds defeatist and gives up on detailing his suspicions about him - arguing that there was little point any more. As Lewwyn is quite an emotional player, I think that his reaction is revealing. What other reason is there for him not to pile on with his strong suspicions unless he's holding out hope for a change in momentum? Lewwyn was more vocal when he chased cases on other players.

But this is the same player who didn’t want to vote Novice Day 1 because of risk of losing a power role, so why focus on Q today?
Also note this from same post:

I still trust dtay so far. I feel he often makes solid posts that I often agree with and as he is a newbie, I wouldn't have expected him to play in this way.

Bob attacks him on his timing for voting Q, and now Twinkletoes has something to grasp at! Bob has got the timing wrong, so Twinkle can genuinely rebuke him:

Bob, the timing has a very simple explanation if you care to look at my post times.

My post prior to voting for Jabbz was at around midnight my time after a long day away from the thread as I had made clear previously. Q made his claim between that post and my next one.

Read my posts, I have always had a strong conviction for suspecting Q and I made that very clear. I only backed off him after his claim as I was not prepared to take the risk and was waiting for more evidence to reassess. You are mistaken to say that I ever went after Q after he claimed, it was only before then that I did.

I would not believe you would make such an obvious mistake when claiming something like this, but you have.

This is a good sycophant style defence. Focus on the factual error, imply scummy motivation in your accuser. And lo, the tide is now turning against Bob. Partly thanks to Zak who also seizes on the error if I remember correctly.

Under further pressure from Jabbz, Twinkle clams up:

I have explained myself, please refrain from insinuating that I have somehow ignored you.

SO far Twinketoes has been just playing defense, but he realises he’s going to have to make a pantomime of attack as well. So he starts casting doubt on Dtay:

In terms of the dtay suspicion, I am torn.

I still give him some leash because I still see him as a new player that is seemingly trying to be helpful to village whilst learning how to read people properly. His play reminds me of my early games where I was trying to contribute in some way when I felt a bit incompetent because I wasn't familiar with the nuances of the game. There's only one major difference from that that sticks out for me, and I'll be interested to see if it comes up.

My main worry with him is that he could just be a good actor. He is posting in the 'perfect range' of just enough to notice his avatar enough on a quick scan through, but not so much that there's much to tie him to. His posts are often quite 'neutral' as well which is a little unusual.

He was quick to pop in when his name started gaining traction, hopped on to me on a case he admits he 'hasn't verified himself' - likely because that ties me up with him. That also concerns me.

This is a wishy washy post that allows Twinkletoes to jump on or not later on as he likes. It turns out he does like.

It’s also his 3rd mention of Dtay after specifically giving him town leans prior. I don’t think Dtay’s play changed much from birth to death this game, but Twinkletoes seems to disagree.

Then he finally prods Molach and votes Rowain. Sure, give people pressure, but its so half hearted.

Rowain was pretty visible on Day One and yet on Day Two I've barely noticed him. Maybe there are extenuating reasons for this, but it is a distinct change. I'm also surprised that while he's named some people he'd be happy to lynch, he's not really justified why they are on that list or voted for them.

Rowain’s not going to respond to this, no actual attack made, just ‘the vibe’. It’s as good as a dead vote, at a time when there is serious discussion on Jkaen, Bob and Jabbz that Twinkle doesn’t want to comment on.

Rowain slaps him down and Twinkletoes has to finally make a choice as deadline is approaching, so he now has his full conversion on Dtay from Town to Scum,

I'm really starting to dislike dtay and his explicit admissions of voting on a mainlyk defensive basis. Even when we are busy, it's important to at least have a case to back up our vote. But twice now he has pretty much piggybacked on other players posts as his reasoning. This hints to me of trying to ensure a cover story where someone else is more to blame. When others are calling him out to make more definitive posts and stick his neck out a bit, he still hasn't.

I'm still not convinced by the bob train. He's still acting like normal in my eyes and still contributing. He hung around on me for too long after I refuted his argument, but I'm not prepared to hang him on that alone. I think he is a prime target for scanning or more of a wait and see approach.

So I'm voting for dtay

He can rest here, and on the player who looks like he’s probably not going to hang either. So hopefully Bob hangs, flips innocent, and Twinkle has town points and has avoided having to be part of anything messy.

Sadly for him shit got a bit real for Dtay, so he ended up with me and the rest on the wrong lynch.

So....yeah. Twinkletoes is a sycophant. His votes are messy, wrong, and based on other people’s cases or seem to contradict themselves. He avoids taking positions on issues except that he doesn’t want to reveal and he doesn’t want to lynch power roles unless they are Q (though not enough to actually vote him).

And finally, Twinkletoes threw away a town power role, claiming he didn’t understand it. And that’s possible, sure. But look at his language. Look at the lawyer language. As I said before:

Its your wording that makes me suspicious. Why not just say, "I tossed Hider for a better role". Which there certainly are in the game. The way you ttalk about how poor Hider looked, without ever saying anything about how we are better off that you threw it away, doesn't feel natural to me. Like, you don't actually have a better town role at all, so all that comes to mind as a retort is this stuff about your misunderstanding of hider.

This is pure psychology/gut feel stuff, but why would an innocent player focus so closely on the relative merits of Hider? Why wouldn’t they feel good about the choice they made? Why not say, “I made the right decision for town, blow me”?

Because he didn’t make the right decision for town and he doesn’t have a town power role.

This is me. Expressing myself.

[Meiz]

I like the case

Yet I still refuse to believe Bob is town

[AdrienIer]

I'm a math student and therefore can't do maths properly, I find 20.2% on my third attempt. It sounds more likely that way.

Good post Gazglum, depending on who dies tonight TT could be on the grill all day 3

[Gazglum]

Bob could be scum too. But they both need to claim, and Twinkletoes has to claim FIRST because he's got more chance of slipping up.