WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[zakalwe]

I'm trying to analyze what happened on day 1 when Q's wagon dispersed. I'm assuming Q is indeed a town cop, in this post. So scum would know that the wagon on Q was probably too good to last, given that he would be claiming a strong role soon enough. In fact, I think they might be slightly nervous about where everybody would move after Q claimed, since that's always a bit unpredictable when a wagon collapses rapidly.

Starting here:

I think Q's case against Jabbz is better than my original case against Q. So I don't really feel the need to hear Q's claim at this point.

This was the tally, with a lot of votes piled up on Q:

9 votes: Qgqqqqq (Azarius, AdrienIer, Lewwyn, Jabbz, Jkaen, Jowy, Ichabod, Meiz, dtay)
3 votes: Mattimeo (Rowain, Gazglum, Molach)
2 votes: Jabbz (Qgqqqqq, zakalwe)
1 votes: novice (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Bobchillingworth (Mattimeo)

Not voting: Fenn, Twinkletoes, Novice

At this point, Q has not claimed, but he has made a series of good posts and his wagon is starting to lose momentum. Votes then went:

Bobchillingworth

Unvote

Lewwyn

Jowy

Lewwyn

jabbz

Jabbz

Jabbz

Jabbz

Until we reach this official tally, mid-day.

Tally as of post 228: (Halfway through Day 1)

6 votes: Qgqqqqq (Azarius, AdrienIer, Lewwyn, Jabbz,Ichabod,dtay)
6 votes: Jabbz (Qgqqqqq, zakalwe, Molach, novice, Rowain, Fenn)
2 votes: Bobchillingworth (Mattimeo, Gazglum)
2 votes: Lewwyn (Meiz, Jowy)
1 votes: novice (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Jowy (Jkaen)

Q still has not made his claim, but the situation has again stabilized a little.

The next run of votes goes like this:

Jowy

Fenn

Gazglum

AdrienIer

Lewwyn

Qgqqqq

Qgqq

Lewwyn

Jabbz

Lewwyn

So the tally in post 347, when Q makes his claim, is now:

6 votes: Jabbz (Qgqqqqq, zakalwe, Molach, novice, Fenn, Ichabod)
5 votes: Qgqqqqq (AdrienIer, Lewwyn, Jabbz, dtay, Twinkletoes89)
4 votes: Lewwyn (Meiz, Jowy, Gazglum, Rowain)
1 votes: Gazglum (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Bobchillingworth (Mattimeo)
1 votes: Jowy (Jkaen)
1 votes: AdrienIer (Azarius)

The only major change is that Lewwyn has been catching more votes as Q's promised claim grows ever more imminent.

The above summary was intended to be fairly neutral. My own conclusions:

Jabbz does look better considering that vote from Novice. Lewwyn was catching some votes, and if Novice didn't support me on Jabbz, there was a big risk I'd go for my other suspect instead, who was Lewwyn. If we also factor in the strong suspicion against Bob that many of us hold, he was also in a position to catch votes if nobody else surged ahead. So Novice's vote looks like a very strategic nudge to ensure that a non-mafia took the new lead. Also, reading through those posts, it didn't look so unnatural for Lewwyn not to mention Jabbz at that time. He was busy with his own shenanigans involving dtay, Ichabod, and Meiz. I think it's perhaps more significant that Lewwyn ignored Jabbz later in the day, but it's not damning in itself. So if Jabbz makes a convincing claim tomorrow, I'm willing to give him a break. I also think his posts tonight have been better than before. (Possibly just because my bias has changed?)

There's no way the mafia would want Lewwyn to be a contender with Q's claim coming up soon, so Meiz, Jowy, Gazglum, and Rowain are almost certainly not mafia. (Also corroborated by my general reads; slightly lower town score for Rowain than the others.) Azarius looks a little shady because of his vote for AdrienIer (has been pointed out before, but I can't remember who did it).

Zak, that makes sense.

Agree with Bob on that post of Gazglum's. Also the AdrienIer post.

Jabbz, when you have the time I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on people that aren't wagoning or omgus.

Meiz, I was referring to the fact that Lewwyn had just said that he finds "What do you think about this?" to be a scummy question, and then in the following post you ask for other's takes on something, which is pretty much "what do you think about this." It just seemed funny to me, wasn't sure if it was intentional or not.

Actually, I'm going to go with AdrienIer. Mainly due to the post I pointed out earlier, and the one Bob just highlighted. I've been uncomfortable with how quickly the Qg wagon got filled, but I haven't really felt that strongly about anyone else to this point. I initially voted Qg mostly as a joke as he was likely to pick scum given the chance, but left it there when I didn't like his initial post and follow up explanations.

He asked me to explain my scum read on Lewwyn, which I did. He then says it makes sense but instead votes for AdrienIer. I think he may have recognized the need to get off Q before he claimed, and was trying to leave himself some more options with this post.

It should also be noted that TT appears to have a terrible voting record based on the (admittedly few) alignments that we know so far.

Crossposting with Gazglum's analysis, will be interesting to compare.

[zakalwe]

Excellent case on TT, Gazglum.

Don't you think he was strangely forgiving of Bob's factual error, though? I mean, Bob just carried right on voting for him, even though TT had corrected his error, and TT just carried right on calling Bob likely town.

[Gazglum]

So you never actually voted for Lewwyn did you Zak? You were on Jabbz until Mattimeo's reveal, then switched to Novice. Just keeping a note.

Otherwise I like your analysis, and I don't think Jabbz makes much sense as a wolf. I'm going so far as to give him a town lean sticker.

[zakalwe]

I'm pretty sure I would have ended up voting for Lewwyn in the end if Novice hadn't been cross-claimed. Honest!

[Meiz]

Don't you think he was strangely forgiving of Bob's factual error, though? I mean, Bob just carried right on voting for him, even though TT had corrected his error, and TT just carried right on calling Bob likely town.

Exactly this.

I also refuse to believe that town reads this post:

Lewwyn didnt mention Jabbz at all in his 20 posts. Even when he came back to the thread a couple hours before lynch with post #409 .
This is an interesting post. He has read the thread, knows he was in the lead, he knows Q has claimed but apparently missed Matt's claim (a good while before this post). He don't know which to lynch of novice or Q, maybe novice (however there could be 2 cops in the setup). He votes for Meiz. No mention of Jabbz, even though he is might be Lewwyn's best bet of avoiding lynch. Could be coincidence, could be planning to ninja-vote Jabbz for preservation near lynchtime, or could be wanting someone else to hang.

I see a lot of people vote TT now, must save that for tomorrow, but as seen he did have a point about people not wanting to lynch Lewwyn without him being around, since he had a better (or more active) role than innocent child if he were a villager.

And comes up with this:

I'm going to switch to Molach, who made a fairly good voting history-based case against himself in post #621, which seems to have oddly subsequently gone ignored. He's certainly as bad as TT in that regard, and he doesn't have as convincing an excuse.

His argument that Jabbz is suspicious for having never been mentioned by Lewwyn is silly as well; I doubt most of us have mentioned every other player. I believe this is my first post naming Molach in any capacity.

Hell no, part 2 of his accusation makes no sense at all. He is looking for something to attack, and misses the context in the process.

[Gazglum]

Excellent case on TT, Gazglum.

Don't you think he was strangely forgiving of Bob's factual error, though? I mean, Bob just carried right on voting for him, even though TT had corrected his error, and TT just carried right on calling Bob likely town.

Twinkle is alone in a dark sea, unable to receive advice from his surviving buddies at day, and forever cut off from the comforting embrace of Novice and Lewwyn. He has to think on his feet. And he also has to try and be consistent with at least SOME of his Day 1 reads, where he declared Bob a good, old-fashioned towny.

I personally think that most likely answer is that Bob -is- town, and Twinkletoes just wanted to be on the right side of a potential lynch, though I might be wrong on the timing (maybe bOb wasn't a candidate then). Bob could be scum, but my personal feeling is that the case on Twinkletoes is so much stronger.

[Molach]

Comprehensive post on TT.
I have one thing about it but that can wait till day.

AdrienIer claiming to know math then delivering wrong data is super scummy.

(I make it 45% 2 sk and 90% 1 sk...).
First is chance of 0 sk-cards in the unseen pile of 14.
Second is chance of 0 sk-cards among seen pile of 38.
Probability changes as non-sk cards are drawn in each case.

[Jkaen]

Gazglum’s TPS REPORT: 3 February 2015

You forgot to include the coversheet

[Molach]

Oh no.
54-38 =16.
okay. that means 51% 2 sk.

[zakalwe]

Excellent case on TT, Gazglum.

Don't you think he was strangely forgiving of Bob's factual error, though? I mean, Bob just carried right on voting for him, even though TT had corrected his error, and TT just carried right on calling Bob likely town.

Twinkle is alone in a dark sea, unable to receive advice from his surviving buddies at day, and forever cut off from the comforting embrace of Novice and Lewwyn. He has to think on his feet. And he also has to try and be consistent with at least SOME of his Day 1 reads, where he declared Bob a good, old-fashioned towny.

I personally think that most likely answer is that Bob -is- town, and Twinkletoes just wanted to be on the right side of a potential lynch, though I might be wrong on the timing (maybe bOb wasn't a candidate then). Bob could be scum, but my personal feeling is that the case on Twinkletoes is so much stronger.

Bob was not a candidate then, no. (Although mentioned as suspicious during the night.) Your interpretation could be the right one. But they *both* acted strangely in that incident.

@Jkaen.